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Normalizing Flows (NFs) are universal density estimators based on Neural Networks. However, this universality is limited: the density's support needs to be diffeomorphic to a Euclidean space. In this paper, we propose a novel method to overcome this limitation without sacrificing universality. The proposed method inflates the data manifold by adding noise in the normal space, trains an NF on this inflated manifold, and, finally, deflates the learned density. Our main result provides sufficient conditions on the manifold and the specific choice of noise under which the corresponding estimator is exact. Our method has the same computational complexity as NFs and does not require computing an inverse flow. We also show that, if the embedding dimension is much larger than the manifold dimension, noise in the normal space can be well approximated by Gaussian noise. This allows using our method for approximating arbitrary densities on unknown manifolds provided that the manifold dimension is known.

Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) enables statistical inference in complex models whose likelihoods are difficult to calculate but easy to simulate from. ABC constructs a kernel-type approximation to the posterior distribution through an accept/reject mechanism which compares summary statistics of real and simulated data. To obviate the need for summary statistics, we directly compare empirical distributions with a Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence estimator obtained via classification. In particular, we blend flexible machine learning classifiers within ABC to automate fake/real data comparisons. We consider the traditional accept/reject kernel as well as an exponential weighting scheme which does not require the ABC acceptance threshold. Our theoretical results show that the rate at which our ABC posterior distributions concentrate around the true parameter depends on the estimation error of the classifier. We derive limiting posterior shape results and find that, with a properly scaled exponential kernel, asymptotic normality holds. We demonstrate the usefulness of our approach on simulated examples as well as real data in the context of stock volatility estimation.

Policy gradient (PG) estimation becomes a challenge when we are not allowed to sample with the target policy but only have access to a dataset generated by some unknown behavior policy. Conventional methods for off-policy PG estimation often suffer from either significant bias or exponentially large variance. In this paper, we propose the double Fitted PG estimation (FPG) algorithm. FPG can work with an arbitrary policy parameterization, assuming access to a Bellman-complete value function class. In the case of linear value function approximation, we provide a tight finite-sample upper bound on policy gradient estimation error, that is governed by the amount of distribution mismatch measured in feature space. We also establish the asymptotic normality of FPG estimation error with a precise covariance characterization, which is further shown to be statistically optimal with a matching Cramer-Rao lower bound. Empirically, we evaluate the performance of FPG on both policy gradient estimation and policy optimization, using either softmax tabular or ReLU policy networks. Under various metrics, our results show that FPG significantly outperforms existing off-policy PG estimation methods based on importance sampling and variance reduction techniques.

Many real-world applications adopt multi-label data streams as the need for algorithms to deal with rapidly changing data increases. Changes in data distribution, also known as concept drift, cause the existing classification models to rapidly lose their effectiveness. To assist the classifiers, we propose a novel algorithm called Label Dependency Drift Detector (LD3), an implicit (unsupervised) concept drift detector using label dependencies within the data for multi-label data streams. Our study exploits the dynamic temporal dependencies between labels using a label influence ranking method, which leverages a data fusion algorithm and uses the produced ranking to detect concept drift. LD3 is the first unsupervised concept drift detection algorithm in the multi-label classification problem area. In this study, we perform an extensive evaluation of LD3 by comparing it with 14 prevalent supervised concept drift detection algorithms that we adapt to the problem area using 12 datasets and a baseline classifier. The results show that LD3 provides between 19.8\% and 68.6\% better predictive performance than comparable detectors on both real-world and synthetic data streams.

It is common practice to use Laplace approximations to compute marginal likelihoods in Bayesian versions of generalised linear models (GLM). Marginal likelihoods combined with model priors are then used in different search algorithms to compute the posterior marginal probabilities of models and individual covariates. This allows performing Bayesian model selection and model averaging. For large sample sizes, even the Laplace approximation becomes computationally challenging because the optimisation routine involved needs to evaluate the likelihood on the full set of data in multiple iterations. As a consequence, the algorithm is not scalable for large datasets. To address this problem, we suggest using a version of a popular batch stochastic gradient descent (BSGD) algorithm for estimating the marginal likelihood of a GLM by subsampling from the data. We further combine the algorithm with Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) based methods for Bayesian model selection and provide some theoretical results on the convergence of the estimates. Finally, we report results from experiments illustrating the performance of the proposed algorithm.

Policy Space Response Oracle method (PSRO) provides a general solution to Nash equilibrium in two-player zero-sum games but suffers from two problems: (1) the computation inefficiency due to consistently evaluating current populations by simulations; and (2) the exploration inefficiency due to learning best responses against a fixed meta-strategy at each iteration. In this work, we propose Efficient PSRO (EPSRO) that largely improves the efficiency of the above two steps. Central to our development is the newly-introduced subroutine of minimax optimization on unrestricted-restricted (URR) games. By solving URR at each step, one can evaluate the current game and compute the best response in one forward pass with no need for game simulations. Theoretically, we prove that the solution procedures of EPSRO offer a monotonic improvement on exploitability. Moreover, a desirable property of EPSRO is that it is parallelizable, this allows for efficient exploration in the policy space that induces behavioral diversity. We test EPSRO on three classes of games and report a 50x speedup in wall-time, 10x data efficiency, and similar exploitability as existing PSRO methods on Kuhn and Leduc Poker games.

Despite the recent success of graph neural networks (GNN), common architectures often exhibit significant limitations, including sensitivity to oversmoothing, long-range dependencies, and spurious edges, e.g., as can occur as a result of graph heterophily or adversarial attacks. To at least partially address these issues within a simple transparent framework, we consider a new family of GNN layers designed to mimic and integrate the update rules of two classical iterative algorithms, namely, proximal gradient descent and iterative reweighted least squares (IRLS). The former defines an extensible base GNN architecture that is immune to oversmoothing while nonetheless capturing long-range dependencies by allowing arbitrary propagation steps. In contrast, the latter produces a novel attention mechanism that is explicitly anchored to an underlying end-toend energy function, contributing stability with respect to edge uncertainty. When combined we obtain an extremely simple yet robust model that we evaluate across disparate scenarios including standardized benchmarks, adversarially-perturbated graphs, graphs with heterophily, and graphs involving long-range dependencies. In doing so, we compare against SOTA GNN approaches that have been explicitly designed for the respective task, achieving competitive or superior node classification accuracy.

Finding approximate Nash equilibria in zero-sum imperfect-information games is challenging when the number of information states is large. Policy Space Response Oracles (PSRO) is a deep reinforcement learning algorithm grounded in game theory that is guaranteed to converge to an approximate Nash equilibrium. However, PSRO requires training a reinforcement learning policy at each iteration, making it too slow for large games. We show through counterexamples and experiments that DCH and Rectified PSRO, two existing approaches to scaling up PSRO, fail to converge even in small games. We introduce Pipeline PSRO (P2SRO), the first scalable general method for finding approximate Nash equilibria in large zero-sum imperfect-information games. P2SRO is able to parallelize PSRO with convergence guarantees by maintaining a hierarchical pipeline of reinforcement learning workers, each training against the policies generated by lower levels in the hierarchy. We show that unlike existing methods, P2SRO converges to an approximate Nash equilibrium, and does so faster as the number of parallel workers increases, across a variety of imperfect information games. We also introduce an open-source environment for Barrage Stratego, a variant of Stratego with an approximate game tree complexity of $10^{50}$. P2SRO is able to achieve state-of-the-art performance on Barrage Stratego and beats all existing bots.

In this paper, from a theoretical perspective, we study how powerful graph neural networks (GNNs) can be for learning approximation algorithms for combinatorial problems. To this end, we first establish a new class of GNNs that can solve strictly a wider variety of problems than existing GNNs. Then, we bridge the gap between GNN theory and the theory of distributed local algorithms to theoretically demonstrate that the most powerful GNN can learn approximation algorithms for the minimum dominating set problem and the minimum vertex cover problem with some approximation ratios and that no GNN can perform better than with these ratios. This paper is the first to elucidate approximation ratios of GNNs for combinatorial problems. Furthermore, we prove that adding coloring or weak-coloring to each node feature improves these approximation ratios. This indicates that preprocessing and feature engineering theoretically strengthen model capabilities.

Object detectors have emerged as an indispensable module in modern computer vision systems. Their vulnerability to adversarial attacks thus become a vital issue to consider. In this work, we propose DPatch, a adversarial-patch-based attack towards mainstream object detectors (i.e., Faster R-CNN and YOLO). Unlike the original adversarial patch that only manipulates image-level classifier, our DPatch simultaneously optimizes the bounding box location and category targets so as to disable their predictions. Compared to prior works, DPatch has several appealing properties: (1) DPatch can perform both untargeted and targeted effective attacks, degrading the mAP of Faster R-CNN and YOLO from 70.0% and 65.7% down to below 1% respectively; (2) DPatch is small in size and its attacking effect is location-independent, making it very practical to implement real-world attacks; (3) DPatch demonstrates great transferability between different detector architectures. For example, DPatch that is trained on Faster R-CNN can effectively attack YOLO, and vice versa. Extensive evaluations imply that DPatch can perform effective attacks under black-box setup, i.e., even without the knowledge of the attacked network's architectures and parameters. The successful realization of DPatch also illustrates the intrinsic vulnerability of the modern detector architectures to such patch-based adversarial attacks.