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Understanding the dose-response relation between a continuous treatment and the outcome for an individual can greatly drive decision-making, particularly in areas like personalized drug dosing and personalized healthcare interventions. Point estimates are often insufficient in these high-risk environments, highlighting the need for uncertainty quantification to support informed decisions. Conformal prediction, a distribution-free and model-agnostic method for uncertainty quantification, has seen limited application in continuous treatments or dose-response models. To address this gap, we propose a novel methodology that frames the causal dose-response problem as a covariate shift, leveraging weighted conformal prediction. By incorporating propensity estimation, conformal predictive systems, and likelihood ratios, we present a practical solution for generating prediction intervals for dose-response models. Additionally, our method approximates local coverage for every treatment value by applying kernel functions as weights in weighted conformal prediction. Finally, we use a new synthetic benchmark dataset to demonstrate the significance of covariate shift assumptions in achieving robust prediction intervals for dose-response models.

Fire hazards are extremely dangerous, particularly in sectors such as the transportation industry, where political unrest increases the likelihood of their occurrence. By employing IP cameras to facilitate the setup of fire detection systems on transport vehicles, losses from fire events may be prevented proactively. However, the development of lightweight fire detection models is required due to the computational constraints of the embedded systems within these cameras. We introduce FireLite, a low-parameter convolutional neural network (CNN) designed for quick fire detection in contexts with limited resources, in response to this difficulty. With an accuracy of 98.77\%, our model -- which has just 34,978 trainable parameters achieves remarkable performance numbers. It also shows a validation loss of 8.74 and peaks at 98.77 for precision, recall, and F1-score measures. Because of its precision and efficiency, FireLite is a promising solution for fire detection in resource-constrained environments.

In forecasting competitions, the traditional mechanism scores the predictions of each contestant against the outcome of each event, and the contestant with the highest total score wins. While it is well-known that this traditional mechanism can suffer from incentive issues, it is folklore that contestants will still be roughly truthful as the number of events grows. Yet thus far the literature lacks a formal analysis of this traditional mechanism. This paper gives the first such analysis. We first demonstrate that the ''long-run truthfulness'' folklore is false: even for arbitrary numbers of events, the best forecaster can have an incentive to hedge, reporting more moderate beliefs to increase their win probability. On the positive side, however, we show that two contestants will be approximately truthful when they have sufficient uncertainty over the relative quality of their opponent and the outcomes of the events, a case which may arise in practice.

In diverse professional environments, ranging from academic conferences to corporate earnings calls, the ability to anticipate audience questions stands paramount. Traditional methods, which rely on manual assessment of an audience's background, interests, and subject knowledge, often fall short - particularly when facing large or heterogeneous groups, leading to imprecision and inefficiency. While NLP has made strides in text-based question generation, its primary focus remains on academic settings, leaving the intricate challenges of professional domains, especially earnings call conferences, underserved. Addressing this gap, our paper pioneers the multi-question generation (MQG) task specifically designed for earnings call contexts. Our methodology involves an exhaustive collection of earnings call transcripts and a novel annotation technique to classify potential questions. Furthermore, we introduce a retriever-enhanced strategy to extract relevant information. With a core aim of generating a spectrum of potential questions that analysts might pose, we derive these directly from earnings call content. Empirical evaluations underscore our approach's edge, revealing notable excellence in the accuracy, consistency, and perplexity of the questions generated.

In this paper, we propose a framework to enhance the robustness of the neural models by mitigating the effects of process-induced and aging-related variations of analog computing components on the accuracy of the analog neural networks. We model these variations as the noise affecting the precision of the activations and introduce a denoising block inserted between selected layers of a pre-trained model. We demonstrate that training the denoising block significantly increases the model's robustness against various noise levels. To minimize the overhead associated with adding these blocks, we present an exploration algorithm to identify optimal insertion points for the denoising blocks. Additionally, we propose a specialized architecture to efficiently execute the denoising blocks, which can be integrated into mixed-signal accelerators. We evaluate the effectiveness of our approach using Deep Neural Network (DNN) models trained on the ImageNet and CIFAR-10 datasets. The results show that on average, by accepting 2.03% parameter count overhead, the accuracy drop due to the variations reduces from 31.7% to 1.15%.

Recently, there has been a significant upsurge of interest in leveraging large language models (LLMs) to assist scientific discovery. However, most LLMs only focus on general science, while they lack domain-specific knowledge, such as chemical molecules and amino acid sequences. To bridge these gaps, we introduce SciDFM, a mixture-of-experts LLM, which is trained from scratch and is able to conduct college-level scientific reasoning and understand molecules and amino acid sequences. We collect a large-scale training corpus containing numerous scientific papers and books from different disciplines as well as data from domain-specific databases. We further fine-tune the pre-trained model on lots of instruction data to improve performances on downstream benchmarks. From experiment results, we show that SciDFM achieves strong performance on general scientific benchmarks such as SciEval and SciQ, and it reaches a SOTA performance on domain-specific benchmarks among models of similar size. We further analyze the expert layers and show that the results of expert selection vary with data from different disciplines. To benefit the broader research community, we open-source SciDFM at //huggingface.co/OpenDFM/SciDFM-MoE-A5.6B-v1.0.

With the rapid development of artificial intelligence technology, especially the increasingly widespread application of question-and-answer systems, high-quality question generation has become a key component in supporting the development of these systems. This article focuses on knowledge-based question generation technology, which aims to enable computers to simulate the human questioning process based on understanding specific texts or knowledge bases. In light of the issues of hallucination and knowledge gaps present in large-scale language models when applied to knowledge-intensive tasks, this paper proposes an enhanced question generation method that incorporates contrastive learning. This method utilizes multiple models to jointly mine domain knowledge and uses contrastive learning to guide the model in reducing noise and hallucinations in generation. Experimental results show that by designing prompts containing contrasting examples, the model's performance in question generation improves considerably, particularly when contrasting instructions and examples are used simultaneously, leading to the highest quality of generated questions and improved accuracy. These results demonstrate that the method proposed in this study, which combines contrasting context and chain-of-thought prompts, can effectively improve both the quality and the practicality of question generation.

This article presents the affordances that Generative Artificial Intelligence can have in disinformation context, one of the major threats to our digitalized society. We present a research framework to generate customized agent-based social networks for disinformation simulations that would enable understanding and evaluation of the phenomena whilst discussing open challenges.

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have recently become increasingly popular due to their ability to learn complex systems of relations or interactions arising in a broad spectrum of problems ranging from biology and particle physics to social networks and recommendation systems. Despite the plethora of different models for deep learning on graphs, few approaches have been proposed thus far for dealing with graphs that present some sort of dynamic nature (e.g. evolving features or connectivity over time). In this paper, we present Temporal Graph Networks (TGNs), a generic, efficient framework for deep learning on dynamic graphs represented as sequences of timed events. Thanks to a novel combination of memory modules and graph-based operators, TGNs are able to significantly outperform previous approaches being at the same time more computationally efficient. We furthermore show that several previous models for learning on dynamic graphs can be cast as specific instances of our framework. We perform a detailed ablation study of different components of our framework and devise the best configuration that achieves state-of-the-art performance on several transductive and inductive prediction tasks for dynamic graphs.

Detecting carried objects is one of the requirements for developing systems to reason about activities involving people and objects. We present an approach to detect carried objects from a single video frame with a novel method that incorporates features from multiple scales. Initially, a foreground mask in a video frame is segmented into multi-scale superpixels. Then the human-like regions in the segmented area are identified by matching a set of extracted features from superpixels against learned features in a codebook. A carried object probability map is generated using the complement of the matching probabilities of superpixels to human-like regions and background information. A group of superpixels with high carried object probability and strong edge support is then merged to obtain the shape of the carried object. We applied our method to two challenging datasets, and results show that our method is competitive with or better than the state-of-the-art.