We consider the problem of detecting multiple changes in multiple independent time series. The search for the best segmentation can be expressed as a minimization problem over a given cost function. We focus on dynamic programming algorithms that solve this problem exactly. When the number of changes is proportional to data length, an inequality-based pruning rule encoded in the PELT algorithm leads to a linear time complexity. Another type of pruning, called functional pruning, gives a close-to-linear time complexity whatever the number of changes, but only for the analysis of univariate time series. We propose a few extensions of functional pruning for multiple independent time series based on the use of simple geometric shapes (balls and hyperrectangles). We focus on the Gaussian case, but some of our rules can be easily extended to the exponential family. In a simulation study we compare the computational efficiency of different geometric-based pruning rules. We show that for small dimensions (2, 3, 4) some of them ran significantly faster than inequality-based approaches in particular when the underlying number of changes is small compared to the data length.
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The hypergraph community detection problem seeks to identify groups of related nodes in hypergraph data. We propose an information-theoretic hypergraph community detection algorithm which compresses the observed data in terms of community labels and community-edge intersections. This algorithm can also be viewed as maximum-likelihood inference in a degree-corrected microcanonical stochastic blockmodel. We perform the inference/compression step via simulated annealing. Unlike several recent algorithms based on canonical models, our microcanonical algorithm does not require inference of statistical parameters such as node degrees or pairwise group connection rates. Through synthetic experiments, we find that our algorithm succeeds down to recently-conjectured thresholds for sparse random hypergraphs. We also find competitive performance in cluster recovery tasks on several hypergraph data sets.
Arctic amplification has altered the climate patterns both regionally and globally, resulting in more frequent and more intense extreme weather events in the past few decades. The essential part of Arctic amplification is the unprecedented sea ice loss as demonstrated by satellite observations. Accurately forecasting Arctic sea ice from sub-seasonal to seasonal scales has been a major research question with fundamental challenges at play. In addition to physics-based Earth system models, researchers have been applying multiple statistical and machine learning models for sea ice forecasting. Looking at the potential of data-driven approaches to study sea ice variations, we propose MT-IceNet - a UNet based spatial and multi-temporal (MT) deep learning model for forecasting Arctic sea ice concentration (SIC). The model uses an encoder-decoder architecture with skip connections and processes multi-temporal input streams to regenerate spatial maps at future timesteps. Using bi-monthly and monthly satellite retrieved sea ice data from NSIDC as well as atmospheric and oceanic variables from ERA5 reanalysis product during 1979-2021, we show that our proposed model provides promising predictive performance for per-pixel SIC forecasting with up to 60% decrease in prediction error for a lead time of 6 months as compared to its state-of-the-art counterparts.
A knowledge graph is a powerful representation of real-world entities and their relations. The vast majority of these relations are defined as positive statements, but the importance of negative statements is increasingly recognized, especially under an Open World Assumption. Explicitly considering negative statements has been shown to improve performance on tasks such as entity summarization and question answering or domain-specific tasks such as protein function prediction. However, no attention has been given to the exploration of negative statements by knowledge graph embedding approaches despite the potential of negative statements to produce more accurate representations of entities in a knowledge graph. We propose a novel approach, TrueWalks, to incorporate negative statements into the knowledge graph representation learning process. In particular, we present a novel walk-generation method that is able to not only differentiate between positive and negative statements but also take into account the semantic implications of negation in ontology-rich knowledge graphs. This is of particular importance for applications in the biomedical domain, where the inadequacy of embedding approaches regarding negative statements at the ontology level has been identified as a crucial limitation. We evaluate TrueWalks in ontology-rich biomedical knowledge graphs in two different predictive tasks based on KG embeddings: protein-protein interaction prediction and gene-disease association prediction. We conduct an extensive analysis over established benchmarks and demonstrate that our method is able to improve the performance of knowledge graph embeddings on all tasks.
While recent research has made significant progress in speech-driven talking face generation, the quality of the generated video still lags behind that of real recordings. One reason for this is the use of handcrafted intermediate representations like facial landmarks and 3DMM coefficients, which are designed based on human knowledge and are insufficient to precisely describe facial movements. Additionally, these methods require an external pretrained model for extracting these representations, whose performance sets an upper bound on talking face generation. To address these limitations, we propose a novel method called DAE-Talker that leverages data-driven latent representations obtained from a diffusion autoencoder (DAE). DAE contains an image encoder that encodes an image into a latent vector and a DDIM image decoder that reconstructs the image from it. We train our DAE on talking face video frames and then extract their latent representations as the training target for a Conformer-based speech2latent model. This allows DAE-Talker to synthesize full video frames and produce natural head movements that align with the content of speech, rather than relying on a predetermined head pose from a template video. We also introduce pose modelling in speech2latent for pose controllability. Additionally, we propose a novel method for generating continuous video frames with the DDIM image decoder trained on individual frames, eliminating the need for modelling the joint distribution of consecutive frames directly. Our experiments show that DAE-Talker outperforms existing popular methods in lip-sync, video fidelity, and pose naturalness. We also conduct ablation studies to analyze the effectiveness of the proposed techniques and demonstrate the pose controllability of DAE-Talker.
We present the first decentralized algorithm for detecting predicates over continuous-time signals under partial synchrony. A distributed cyber-physical system (CPS) consists of a network of agents, each of which measures (or computes) a continuous-time signal. Examples include distributed industrial controllers connected over wireless networks and connected vehicles in traffic. The safety requirements of such CPS, expressed as logical predicates, must be monitored at runtime. This monitoring faces three challenges: first, every agent only knows its own signal, whereas the safety requirement is global and carries over multiple signals. Second, the agents' local clocks drift from each other, so they do not even agree on the time. Thus, it is not clear which signal values are actually synchronous to evaluate the safety predicate. Third, CPS signals are continuous-time so there are potentially uncountably many safety violations to be reported. In this paper, we present the first decentralized algorithm for detecting conjunctive predicates in this setup. Our algorithm returns all possible violations of the predicate, which is important for eliminating bugs from distributed systems regardless of actual clock drift. We prove that this detection algorithm is in the same complexity class as the detector for discrete systems. We implement our detector and validate it experimentally.
This paper investigates the multiple-input-multiple-output (MIMO) massive unsourced random access in an asynchronous orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (OFDM) system, with both timing and frequency offsets (TFO) and non-negligible user collisions. The proposed coding framework splits the data into two parts encoded by sparse regression code (SPARC) and low-density parity check (LDPC) code. Multistage orthogonal pilots are transmitted in the first part to reduce collision density. Unlike existing schemes requiring a quantization codebook with a large size for estimating TFO, we establish a \textit{graph-based channel reconstruction and collision resolution (GB-CR$^2$)} algorithm to iteratively reconstruct channels, resolve collisions, and compensate for TFO rotations on the formulated graph jointly among multiple stages. We further propose to leverage the geometric characteristics of signal constellations to correct TFO estimations. Exhaustive simulations demonstrate remarkable performance superiority in channel estimation and data recovery with substantial complexity reduction compared to state-of-the-art schemes.
We consider statistical inference of equality-constrained stochastic nonlinear optimization problems. We develop a fully online stochastic sequential quadratic programming (StoSQP) method to solve the problems, which can be regarded as applying Newton's method to the first-order optimality conditions (i.e., the KKT conditions). Motivated by recent designs of numerical second-order methods, we allow StoSQP to adaptively select any random stepsize $\bar{\alpha}_t$, as long as $\beta_t\leq \bar{\alpha}_t \leq \beta_t+\chi_t$, for some control sequences $\beta_t$ and $\chi_t=o(\beta_t)$. To reduce the dominant computational cost of second-order methods, we additionally allow StoSQP to inexactly solve quadratic programs via efficient randomized iterative solvers that utilize sketching techniques. Notably, we do not require the approximation error to diminish as iteration proceeds. For the developed method, we show that under mild assumptions (i) computationally, it can take at most $O(1/\epsilon^4)$ iterations (same as samples) to attain $\epsilon$-stationarity; (ii) statistically, its primal-dual sequence $1/\sqrt{\beta_t}\cdot (x_t - x^\star, \lambda_t - \lambda^\star)$ converges to a mean-zero Gaussian distribution with a nontrivial covariance matrix depending on the underlying sketching distribution. Additionally, we establish the almost-sure convergence rate of the iterate $(x_t, \lambda_t)$ along with the Berry-Esseen bound; the latter quantitatively measures the convergence rate of the distribution function. We analyze a plug-in limiting covariance matrix estimator, and demonstrate the performance of the method both on benchmark nonlinear problems in CUTEst test set and on linearly/nonlinearly constrained regression problems.
Recent artificial intelligence (AI) systems have reached milestones in "grand challenges" ranging from Go to protein-folding. The capability to retrieve medical knowledge, reason over it, and answer medical questions comparably to physicians has long been viewed as one such grand challenge. Large language models (LLMs) have catalyzed significant progress in medical question answering; Med-PaLM was the first model to exceed a "passing" score in US Medical Licensing Examination (USMLE) style questions with a score of 67.2% on the MedQA dataset. However, this and other prior work suggested significant room for improvement, especially when models' answers were compared to clinicians' answers. Here we present Med-PaLM 2, which bridges these gaps by leveraging a combination of base LLM improvements (PaLM 2), medical domain finetuning, and prompting strategies including a novel ensemble refinement approach. Med-PaLM 2 scored up to 86.5% on the MedQA dataset, improving upon Med-PaLM by over 19% and setting a new state-of-the-art. We also observed performance approaching or exceeding state-of-the-art across MedMCQA, PubMedQA, and MMLU clinical topics datasets. We performed detailed human evaluations on long-form questions along multiple axes relevant to clinical applications. In pairwise comparative ranking of 1066 consumer medical questions, physicians preferred Med-PaLM 2 answers to those produced by physicians on eight of nine axes pertaining to clinical utility (p < 0.001). We also observed significant improvements compared to Med-PaLM on every evaluation axis (p < 0.001) on newly introduced datasets of 240 long-form "adversarial" questions to probe LLM limitations. While further studies are necessary to validate the efficacy of these models in real-world settings, these results highlight rapid progress towards physician-level performance in medical question answering.
With the extremely rapid advances in remote sensing (RS) technology, a great quantity of Earth observation (EO) data featuring considerable and complicated heterogeneity is readily available nowadays, which renders researchers an opportunity to tackle current geoscience applications in a fresh way. With the joint utilization of EO data, much research on multimodal RS data fusion has made tremendous progress in recent years, yet these developed traditional algorithms inevitably meet the performance bottleneck due to the lack of the ability to comprehensively analyse and interpret these strongly heterogeneous data. Hence, this non-negligible limitation further arouses an intense demand for an alternative tool with powerful processing competence. Deep learning (DL), as a cutting-edge technology, has witnessed remarkable breakthroughs in numerous computer vision tasks owing to its impressive ability in data representation and reconstruction. Naturally, it has been successfully applied to the field of multimodal RS data fusion, yielding great improvement compared with traditional methods. This survey aims to present a systematic overview in DL-based multimodal RS data fusion. More specifically, some essential knowledge about this topic is first given. Subsequently, a literature survey is conducted to analyse the trends of this field. Some prevalent sub-fields in the multimodal RS data fusion are then reviewed in terms of the to-be-fused data modalities, i.e., spatiospectral, spatiotemporal, light detection and ranging-optical, synthetic aperture radar-optical, and RS-Geospatial Big Data fusion. Furthermore, We collect and summarize some valuable resources for the sake of the development in multimodal RS data fusion. Finally, the remaining challenges and potential future directions are highlighted.
The accurate and interpretable prediction of future events in time-series data often requires the capturing of representative patterns (or referred to as states) underpinning the observed data. To this end, most existing studies focus on the representation and recognition of states, but ignore the changing transitional relations among them. In this paper, we present evolutionary state graph, a dynamic graph structure designed to systematically represent the evolving relations (edges) among states (nodes) along time. We conduct analysis on the dynamic graphs constructed from the time-series data and show that changes on the graph structures (e.g., edges connecting certain state nodes) can inform the occurrences of events (i.e., time-series fluctuation). Inspired by this, we propose a novel graph neural network model, Evolutionary State Graph Network (EvoNet), to encode the evolutionary state graph for accurate and interpretable time-series event prediction. Specifically, Evolutionary State Graph Network models both the node-level (state-to-state) and graph-level (segment-to-segment) propagation, and captures the node-graph (state-to-segment) interactions over time. Experimental results based on five real-world datasets show that our approach not only achieves clear improvements compared with 11 baselines, but also provides more insights towards explaining the results of event predictions.
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