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Scenario-based probabilistic forecasts have become a vital tool to equip decision-makers to address the uncertain nature of renewable energies. To that end, this paper presents a recent promising deep learning generative approach called denoising diffusion probabilistic models. It is a class of latent variable models which have recently demonstrated impressive results in the computer vision community. However, to the best of our knowledge, there has yet to be a demonstration that they can generate high-quality samples of load, PV, or wind power time series, crucial elements to face the new challenges in power systems applications. Thus, we propose the first implementation of this model for energy forecasting using the open data of the Global Energy Forecasting Competition 2014. The results demonstrate this approach is competitive with other state-of-the-art deep learning generative models, including generative adversarial networks, variational autoencoders, and normalizing flows.

Point cloud registration (PCR) is a popular research topic in computer vision. Recently, the registration method in an evolutionary way has received continuous attention because of its robustness to the initial pose and flexibility in objective function design. However, most evolving registration methods cannot tackle the local optimum well and they have rarely investigated the success ratio, which implies the probability of not falling into local optima and is closely related to the practicality of the algorithm. Evolutionary multi-task optimization (EMTO) is a widely used paradigm, which can boost exploration capability through knowledge transfer among related tasks. Inspired by this concept, this study proposes a novel evolving registration algorithm via EMTO, where the multi-task configuration is based on the idea of solution space cutting. Concretely, one task searching in cut space assists another task with complex function landscape in escaping from local optima and enhancing successful registration ratio. To reduce unnecessary computational cost, a sparse-to-dense strategy is proposed. In addition, a novel fitness function robust to various overlap rates as well as a problem-specific metric of computational cost is introduced. Compared with 7 evolving registration approaches and 4 traditional registration approaches on the object-scale and scene-scale registration datasets, experimental results demonstrate that the proposed method has superior performances in terms of precision and tackling local optima.

Inferring reward functions from human behavior is at the center of value alignment - aligning AI objectives with what we, humans, actually want. But doing so relies on models of how humans behave given their objectives. After decades of research in cognitive science, neuroscience, and behavioral economics, obtaining accurate human models remains an open research topic. This begs the question: how accurate do these models need to be in order for the reward inference to be accurate? On the one hand, if small errors in the model can lead to catastrophic error in inference, the entire framework of reward learning seems ill-fated, as we will never have perfect models of human behavior. On the other hand, if as our models improve, we can have a guarantee that reward accuracy also improves, this would show the benefit of more work on the modeling side. We study this question both theoretically and empirically. We do show that it is unfortunately possible to construct small adversarial biases in behavior that lead to arbitrarily large errors in the inferred reward. However, and arguably more importantly, we are also able to identify reasonable assumptions under which the reward inference error can be bounded linearly in the error in the human model. Finally, we verify our theoretical insights in discrete and continuous control tasks with simulated and human data.

Underwater navigation presents several challenges, including unstructured unknown environments, lack of reliable localization systems (e.g., GPS), and poor visibility. Furthermore, good-quality obstacle detection sensors for underwater robots are scant and costly; and many sensors like RGB-D cameras and LiDAR only work in-air. To enable reliable mapless underwater navigation despite these challenges, we propose a low-cost end-to-end navigation system, based on a monocular camera and a fixed single-beam echo-sounder, that efficiently navigates an underwater robot to waypoints while avoiding nearby obstacles. Our proposed method is based on Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO), which takes as input current relative goal information, estimated depth images, echo-sounder readings, and previous executed actions, and outputs 3D robot actions in a normalized scale. End-to-end training was done in simulation, where we adopted domain randomization (varying underwater conditions and visibility) to learn a robust policy against noise and changes in visibility conditions. The experiments in simulation and real-world demonstrated that our proposed method is successful and resilient in navigating a low-cost underwater robot in unknown underwater environments. The implementation is made publicly available at //github.com/dartmouthrobotics/deeprl-uw-robot-navigation.

The paper traces the development of the use of martingale methods in survival analysis from the mid 1970's to the early 1990's. This development was initiated by Aalen's Berkeley PhD-thesis in 1975, progressed through the work on estimation of Markov transition probabilities, non-parametric tests and Cox's regression model in the late 1970's and early 1980's, and it was consolidated in the early 1990's with the publication of the monographs by Fleming and Harrington (1991) and Andersen, Borgan, Gill and Keiding (1993). The development was made possible by an unusually fast technology transfer of pure mathematical concepts, primarily from French probability, into practical biostatistical methodology, and we attempt to outline some of the personal relationships that helped this happen. We also point out that survival analysis was ready for this development since the martingale ideas inherent in the deep understanding of temporal development so intrinsic to the French theory of processes were already quite close to the surface in survival analysis.

Over recent years, there has been a rapid development of deep learning (DL) in both industry and academia fields. However, finding the optimal hyperparameters of a DL model often needs high computational cost and human expertise. To mitigate the above issue, evolutionary computation (EC) as a powerful heuristic search approach has shown significant merits in the automated design of DL models, so-called evolutionary deep learning (EDL). This paper aims to analyze EDL from the perspective of automated machine learning (AutoML). Specifically, we firstly illuminate EDL from machine learning and EC and regard EDL as an optimization problem. According to the DL pipeline, we systematically introduce EDL methods ranging from feature engineering, model generation, to model deployment with a new taxonomy (i.e., what and how to evolve/optimize), and focus on the discussions of solution representation and search paradigm in handling the optimization problem by EC. Finally, key applications, open issues and potentially promising lines of future research are suggested. This survey has reviewed recent developments of EDL and offers insightful guidelines for the development of EDL.

Forecasting has always been at the forefront of decision making and planning. The uncertainty that surrounds the future is both exciting and challenging, with individuals and organisations seeking to minimise risks and maximise utilities. The large number of forecasting applications calls for a diverse set of forecasting methods to tackle real-life challenges. This article provides a non-systematic review of the theory and the practice of forecasting. We provide an overview of a wide range of theoretical, state-of-the-art models, methods, principles, and approaches to prepare, produce, organise, and evaluate forecasts. We then demonstrate how such theoretical concepts are applied in a variety of real-life contexts. We do not claim that this review is an exhaustive list of methods and applications. However, we wish that our encyclopedic presentation will offer a point of reference for the rich work that has been undertaken over the last decades, with some key insights for the future of forecasting theory and practice. Given its encyclopedic nature, the intended mode of reading is non-linear. We offer cross-references to allow the readers to navigate through the various topics. We complement the theoretical concepts and applications covered by large lists of free or open-source software implementations and publicly-available databases.

While recent studies on semi-supervised learning have shown remarkable progress in leveraging both labeled and unlabeled data, most of them presume a basic setting of the model is randomly initialized. In this work, we consider semi-supervised learning and transfer learning jointly, leading to a more practical and competitive paradigm that can utilize both powerful pre-trained models from source domain as well as labeled/unlabeled data in the target domain. To better exploit the value of both pre-trained weights and unlabeled target examples, we introduce adaptive consistency regularization that consists of two complementary components: Adaptive Knowledge Consistency (AKC) on the examples between the source and target model, and Adaptive Representation Consistency (ARC) on the target model between labeled and unlabeled examples. Examples involved in the consistency regularization are adaptively selected according to their potential contributions to the target task. We conduct extensive experiments on several popular benchmarks including CUB-200-2011, MIT Indoor-67, MURA, by fine-tuning the ImageNet pre-trained ResNet-50 model. Results show that our proposed adaptive consistency regularization outperforms state-of-the-art semi-supervised learning techniques such as Pseudo Label, Mean Teacher, and MixMatch. Moreover, our algorithm is orthogonal to existing methods and thus able to gain additional improvements on top of MixMatch and FixMatch. Our code is available at //github.com/SHI-Labs/Semi-Supervised-Transfer-Learning.

Multi-label text classification refers to the problem of assigning each given document its most relevant labels from the label set. Commonly, the metadata of the given documents and the hierarchy of the labels are available in real-world applications. However, most existing studies focus on only modeling the text information, with a few attempts to utilize either metadata or hierarchy signals, but not both of them. In this paper, we bridge the gap by formalizing the problem of metadata-aware text classification in a large label hierarchy (e.g., with tens of thousands of labels). To address this problem, we present the MATCH solution -- an end-to-end framework that leverages both metadata and hierarchy information. To incorporate metadata, we pre-train the embeddings of text and metadata in the same space and also leverage the fully-connected attentions to capture the interrelations between them. To leverage the label hierarchy, we propose different ways to regularize the parameters and output probability of each child label by its parents. Extensive experiments on two massive text datasets with large-scale label hierarchies demonstrate the effectiveness of MATCH over state-of-the-art deep learning baselines.

Multivariate time series forecasting is extensively studied throughout the years with ubiquitous applications in areas such as finance, traffic, environment, etc. Still, concerns have been raised on traditional methods for incapable of modeling complex patterns or dependencies lying in real word data. To address such concerns, various deep learning models, mainly Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) based methods, are proposed. Nevertheless, capturing extremely long-term patterns while effectively incorporating information from other variables remains a challenge for time-series forecasting. Furthermore, lack-of-explainability remains one serious drawback for deep neural network models. Inspired by Memory Network proposed for solving the question-answering task, we propose a deep learning based model named Memory Time-series network (MTNet) for time series forecasting. MTNet consists of a large memory component, three separate encoders, and an autoregressive component to train jointly. Additionally, the attention mechanism designed enable MTNet to be highly interpretable. We can easily tell which part of the historic data is referenced the most.