We study the bias of classical quantile regression and instrumental variable quantile regression estimators. While being asymptotically first-order unbiased, these estimators can have non-negligible second-order biases. We derive a higher-order stochastic expansion of these estimators using empirical process theory. Based on this expansion, we derive an explicit formula for the second-order bias and propose a feasible bias correction procedure that uses finite-difference estimators of the bias components. The proposed bias correction method performs well in simulations. We provide an empirical illustration using Engel's classical data on household expenditure.
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Fine-tuning large language models can improve task specific performance, although a general understanding of what the fine-tuned model has learned, forgotten and how to trust its predictions is still missing. We derive principled uncertainty quantification for fine-tuned LLMs with posterior approximations using computationally efficient low-rank adaptation ensembles. We analyze three common multiple-choice datasets using low-rank adaptation ensembles based on Mistral-7b, and draw quantitative and qualitative conclusions on their perceived complexity and model efficacy on the different target domains during and after fine-tuning. In particular, backed by the numerical experiments, we hypothesise about signals from entropic uncertainty measures for data domains that are inherently difficult for a given architecture to learn.
We introduce a new stochastic algorithm for solving entropic optimal transport (EOT) between two absolutely continuous probability measures $\mu$ and $\nu$. Our work is motivated by the specific setting of Monge-Kantorovich quantiles where the source measure $\mu$ is either the uniform distribution on the unit hypercube or the spherical uniform distribution. Using the knowledge of the source measure, we propose to parametrize a Kantorovich dual potential by its Fourier coefficients. In this way, each iteration of our stochastic algorithm reduces to two Fourier transforms that enables us to make use of the Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) in order to implement a fast numerical method to solve EOT. We study the almost sure convergence of our stochastic algorithm that takes its values in an infinite-dimensional Banach space. Then, using numerical experiments, we illustrate the performances of our approach on the computation of regularized Monge-Kantorovich quantiles. In particular, we investigate the potential benefits of entropic regularization for the smooth estimation of multivariate quantiles using data sampled from the target measure $\nu$.
This paper considers the unstructured sparse recovery problems in a general form. Examples include rational approximation, spectral function estimation, Fourier inversion, Laplace inversion, and sparse deconvolution. The main challenges are the noise in the sample values and the unstructured nature of the sample locations. This paper proposes the eigenmatrix, a data-driven construction with desired approximate eigenvalues and eigenvectors. The eigenmatrix offers a new way for these sparse recovery problems. Numerical results are provided to demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed method.
We give an explicit solution formula for the polynomial regression problem in terms of Schur polynomials and Vandermonde determinants. We thereby generalize the work of Chang, Deng, and Floater to the case of model functions of the form $\sum _{i=1}^{n} a_{i} x^{d_{i}}$ for some integer exponents $d_{1} >d_{2} >\dotsc >d_{n} \geq 0$ and phrase the results using Schur polynomials. Even though the solution circumvents the well-known problems with the forward stability of the normal equation, it is only of practical value if $n$ is small because the number of terms in the formula grows rapidly with the number $m$ of data points. The formula can be evaluated essentially without rounding.
We present an algorithm for the exact computer-aided construction of the Voronoi cells of lattices with known symmetry group. Our algorithm scales better than linearly with the total number of faces and is applicable to dimensions beyond 12, which previous methods could not achieve. The new algorithm is applied to the Coxeter-Todd lattice $K_{12}$ as well as to a family of lattices obtained from laminating $K_{12}$. By optimizing this family, we obtain a new best 13-dimensional lattice quantizer (among the lattices with published exact quantizer constants).
Marginal structural models have been widely used in causal inference to estimate mean outcomes under either a static or a prespecified set of treatment decision rules. This approach requires imposing a working model for the mean outcome given a sequence of treatments and possibly baseline covariates. In this paper, we introduce a dynamic marginal structural model that can be used to estimate an optimal decision rule within a class of parametric rules. Specifically, we will estimate the mean outcome as a function of the parameters in the class of decision rules, referred to as a regimen-response curve. In general, misspecification of the working model may lead to a biased estimate with questionable causal interpretability. To mitigate this issue, we will leverage risk to assess "goodness-of-fit" of the imposed working model. We consider the counterfactual risk as our target parameter and derive inverse probability weighting and canonical gradients to map it to the observed data. We provide asymptotic properties of the resulting risk estimators, considering both fixed and data-dependent target parameters. We will show that the inverse probability weighting estimator can be efficient and asymptotic linear when the weight functions are estimated using a sieve-based estimator. The proposed method is implemented on the LS1 study to estimate a regimen-response curve for patients with Parkinson's disease.
In a regression model with multiple response variables and multiple explanatory variables, if the difference of the mean vectors of the response variables for different values of explanatory variables is always in the direction of the first principal eigenvector of the covariance matrix of the response variables, then it is called a multivariate allometric regression model. This paper studies the estimation of the first principal eigenvector in the multivariate allometric regression model. A class of estimators that includes conventional estimators is proposed based on weighted sum-of-squares matrices of regression sum-of-squares matrix and residual sum-of-squares matrix. We establish an upper bound of the mean squared error of the estimators contained in this class, and the weight value minimizing the upper bound is derived. Sufficient conditions for the consistency of the estimators are discussed in weak identifiability regimes under which the difference of the largest and second largest eigenvalues of the covariance matrix decays asymptotically and in ``large $p$, large $n$" regimes, where $p$ is the number of response variables and $n$ is the sample size. Several numerical results are also presented.
We propose a simple empirical representation of expectations such that: For a number of samples above a certain threshold, drawn from any probability distribution with finite fourth-order statistic, the proposed estimator outperforms the empirical average when tested against the actual population, with respect to the quadratic loss. For datasets smaller than this threshold, the result still holds, but for a class of distributions determined by their first four statistics. Our approach leverages the duality between distributionally robust and risk-averse optimization.
We consider the classical problems of interpolating a polynomial given a black box for evaluation, and of multiplying two polynomials, in the setting where the bit-lengths of the coefficients may vary widely, so-called unbalanced polynomials. Writing s for the total bit-length and D for the degree, our new algorithms have expected running time $\tilde{O}(s \log D)$, whereas previous methods for (resp.) dense or sparse arithmetic have at least $\tilde{O}(sD)$ or $\tilde{O}(s^2)$ bit complexity.
Retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) is a severe condition affecting premature infants, leading to abnormal retinal blood vessel growth, retinal detachment, and potential blindness. While semi-automated systems have been used in the past to diagnose ROP-related plus disease by quantifying retinal vessel features, traditional machine learning (ML) models face challenges like accuracy and overfitting. Recent advancements in deep learning (DL), especially convolutional neural networks (CNNs), have significantly improved ROP detection and classification. The i-ROP deep learning (i-ROP-DL) system also shows promise in detecting plus disease, offering reliable ROP diagnosis potential. This research comprehensively examines the contemporary progress and challenges associated with using retinal imaging and artificial intelligence (AI) to detect ROP, offering valuable insights that can guide further investigation in this domain. Based on 89 original studies in this field (out of 1487 studies that were comprehensively reviewed), we concluded that traditional methods for ROP diagnosis suffer from subjectivity and manual analysis, leading to inconsistent clinical decisions. AI holds great promise for improving ROP management. This review explores AI's potential in ROP detection, classification, diagnosis, and prognosis.
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