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A robot's ability to complete a task is heavily dependent on its physical design. However, identifying an optimal physical design and its corresponding control policy is inherently challenging. The freedom to choose the number of links, their type, and how they are connected results in a combinatorial design space, and the evaluation of any design in that space requires deriving its optimal controller. In this work, we present N-LIMB, an efficient approach to optimizing the design and control of a robot over large sets of morphologies. Central to our framework is a universal, design-conditioned control policy capable of controlling a diverse sets of designs. This policy greatly improves the sample efficiency of our approach by allowing the transfer of experience across designs and reducing the cost to evaluate new designs. We train this policy to maximize expected return over a distribution of designs, which is simultaneously updated towards higher performing designs under the universal policy. In this way, our approach converges towards a design distribution peaked around high-performing designs and a controller that is effectively fine-tuned for those designs. We demonstrate the potential of our approach on a series of locomotion tasks across varying terrains and show the discovery novel and high-performing design-control pairs.

In this paper, we propose a new covering technique localized for the trajectories of SGD. This localization provides an algorithm-specific complexity measured by the covering number, which can have dimension-independent cardinality in contrast to standard uniform covering arguments that result in exponential dimension dependency. Based on this localized construction, we show that if the objective function is a finite perturbation of a piecewise strongly convex and smooth function with $P$ pieces, i.e. non-convex and non-smooth in general, the generalization error can be upper bounded by $O(\sqrt{(\log n\log(nP))/n})$, where $n$ is the number of data samples. In particular, this rate is independent of dimension and does not require early stopping and decaying step size. Finally, we employ these results in various contexts and derive generalization bounds for multi-index linear models, multi-class support vector machines, and $K$-means clustering for both hard and soft label setups, improving the known state-of-the-art rates.

The brain age has been proven to be a phenotype of relevance to cognitive performance and brain disease. Achieving accurate brain age prediction is an essential prerequisite for optimizing the predicted brain-age difference as a biomarker. As a comprehensive biological characteristic, the brain age is hard to be exploited accurately with models using feature engineering and local processing such as local convolution and recurrent operations that process one local neighborhood at a time. Instead, Vision Transformers learn global attentive interaction of patch tokens, introducing less inductive bias and modeling long-range dependencies. In terms of this, we proposed a novel network for learning brain age interpreting with global and local dependencies, where the corresponding representations are captured by Successive Permuted Transformer (SPT) and convolution blocks. The SPT brings computation efficiency and locates the 3D spatial information indirectly via continuously encoding 2D slices from different views. Finally, we collect a large cohort of 22645 subjects with ages ranging from 14 to 97 and our network performed the best among a series of deep learning methods, yielding a mean absolute error (MAE) of 2.855 in validation set, and 2.911 in an independent test set.

In data science, vector autoregression (VAR) models are popular in modeling multivariate time series in the environmental sciences and other applications. However, these models are computationally complex with the number of parameters scaling quadratically with the number of time series. In this work, we propose a so-called neighborhood vector autoregression (NVAR) model to efficiently analyze large-dimensional multivariate time series. We assume that the time series have underlying neighborhood relationships, e.g., spatial or network, among them based on the inherent setting of the problem. When this neighborhood information is available or can be summarized using a distance matrix, we demonstrate that our proposed NVAR method provides a computationally efficient and theoretically sound estimation of model parameters. The performance of the proposed method is compared with other existing approaches in both simulation studies and a real application of stream nitrogen study.

This work considers Gaussian process interpolation with a periodized version of the Mat{\'e}rn covariance function (Stein, 1999, Section 6.7) with Fourier coefficients $\phi$($\alpha$^2 + j^2)^(--$\nu$--1/2). Convergence rates are studied for the joint maximum likelihood estimation of $\nu$ and $\phi$ when the data is sampled according to the model. The mean integrated squared error is also analyzed with fixed and estimated parameters, showing that maximum likelihood estimation yields asymptotically the same error as if the ground truth was known. Finally, the case where the observed function is a ''deterministic'' element of a continuous Sobolev space is also considered, suggesting that bounding assumptions on some parameters can lead to different estimates.

The precision matrix that encodes conditional linear dependency relations among a set of variables forms an important object of interest in multivariate analysis. Sparse estimation procedures for precision matrices such as the graphical lasso (Glasso) gained popularity as they facilitate interpretability, thereby separating pairs of variables that are conditionally dependent from those that are independent (given all other variables). Glasso lacks, however, robustness to outliers. To overcome this problem, one typically applies a robust plug-in procedure where the Glasso is computed from a robust covariance estimate instead of the sample covariance, thereby providing protection against outliers. In this paper, we study such estimators theoretically, by deriving and comparing their influence function, sensitivity curves and asymptotic variances.

Variational Bayesian posterior inference often requires simplifying approximations such as mean-field parametrisation to ensure tractability. However, prior work has associated the variational mean-field approximation for Bayesian neural networks with underfitting in the case of small datasets or large model sizes. In this work, we show that invariances in the likelihood function of over-parametrised models contribute to this phenomenon because these invariances complicate the structure of the posterior by introducing discrete and/or continuous modes which cannot be well approximated by Gaussian mean-field distributions. In particular, we show that the mean-field approximation has an additional gap in the evidence lower bound compared to a purpose-built posterior that takes into account the known invariances. Importantly, this invariance gap is not constant; it vanishes as the approximation reverts to the prior. We proceed by first considering translation invariances in a linear model with a single data point in detail. We show that, while the true posterior can be constructed from a mean-field parametrisation, this is achieved only if the objective function takes into account the invariance gap. Then, we transfer our analysis of the linear model to neural networks. Our analysis provides a framework for future work to explore solutions to the invariance problem.

To estimate causal effects, analysts performing observational studies in health settings utilize several strategies to mitigate bias due to confounding by indication. There are two broad classes of approaches for these purposes: use of confounders and instrumental variables (IVs). Because such approaches are largely characterized by untestable assumptions, analysts must operate under an indefinite paradigm that these methods will work imperfectly. In this tutorial, we formalize a set of general principles and heuristics for estimating causal effects in the two approaches when the assumptions are potentially violated. This crucially requires reframing the process of observational studies as hypothesizing potential scenarios where the estimates from one approach are less inconsistent than the other. While most of our discussion of methodology centers around the linear setting, we touch upon complexities in non-linear settings and flexible procedures such as target minimum loss-based estimation (TMLE) and double machine learning (DML). To demonstrate the application of our principles, we investigate the use of donepezil off-label for mild cognitive impairment (MCI). We compare and contrast results from confounder and IV methods, traditional and flexible, within our analysis and to a similar observational study and clinical trial.

This paper focuses on the expected difference in borrower's repayment when there is a change in the lender's credit decisions. Classical estimators overlook the confounding effects and hence the estimation error can be magnificent. As such, we propose another approach to construct the estimators such that the error can be greatly reduced. The proposed estimators are shown to be unbiased, consistent, and robust through a combination of theoretical analysis and numerical testing. Moreover, we compare the power of estimating the causal quantities between the classical estimators and the proposed estimators. The comparison is tested across a wide range of models, including linear regression models, tree-based models, and neural network-based models, under different simulated datasets that exhibit different levels of causality, different degrees of nonlinearity, and different distributional properties. Most importantly, we apply our approaches to a large observational dataset provided by a global technology firm that operates in both the e-commerce and the lending business. We find that the relative reduction of estimation error is strikingly substantial if the causal effects are accounted for correctly.

With the rapid increase of large-scale, real-world datasets, it becomes critical to address the problem of long-tailed data distribution (i.e., a few classes account for most of the data, while most classes are under-represented). Existing solutions typically adopt class re-balancing strategies such as re-sampling and re-weighting based on the number of observations for each class. In this work, we argue that as the number of samples increases, the additional benefit of a newly added data point will diminish. We introduce a novel theoretical framework to measure data overlap by associating with each sample a small neighboring region rather than a single point. The effective number of samples is defined as the volume of samples and can be calculated by a simple formula $(1-\beta^{n})/(1-\beta)$, where $n$ is the number of samples and $\beta \in [0,1)$ is a hyperparameter. We design a re-weighting scheme that uses the effective number of samples for each class to re-balance the loss, thereby yielding a class-balanced loss. Comprehensive experiments are conducted on artificially induced long-tailed CIFAR datasets and large-scale datasets including ImageNet and iNaturalist. Our results show that when trained with the proposed class-balanced loss, the network is able to achieve significant performance gains on long-tailed datasets.