Staged trees are a relatively recent class of probabilistic graphical models that extend Bayesian networks to formally and graphically account for non-symmetric patterns of dependence. Machine learning algorithms to learn them from data have been implemented in various pieces of software. However, to date, methods to assess the robustness and validity of the learned, non-symmetric relationships are not available. Here, we introduce validation techniques tailored to staged tree models based on non-parametric bootstrap resampling methods and investigate their use in practical applications. In particular, we focus on the evaluation of transport services using large-scale survey data. In these types of applications, data from heterogeneous sources must be collated together. Staged trees provide a natural framework for this integration of data and its analysis. For the thorough evaluation of transport services, we further implement novel what-if sensitivity analyses for staged trees and their visualization using software.
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Diffusion probabilistic models (DPMs) have rapidly evolved to be one of the predominant generative models for the simulation of synthetic data, for instance, for computer vision, audio, natural language processing, or biomolecule generation. Here, we propose using DPMs for the generation of synthetic individual location trajectories (ILTs) which are sequences of variables representing physical locations visited by individuals. ILTs are of major importance in mobility research to understand the mobility behavior of populations and to ultimately inform political decision-making. We represent ILTs as multi-dimensional categorical random variables and propose to model their joint distribution using a continuous DPM by first applying the diffusion process in a continuous unconstrained space and then mapping the continuous variables into a discrete space. We demonstrate that our model can synthesize realistic ILPs by comparing conditionally and unconditionally generated sequences to real-world ILPs from a GNSS tracking data set which suggests the potential use of our model for synthetic data generation, for example, for benchmarking models used in mobility research.
Density estimation is a fundamental technique employed in various fields to model and to understand the underlying distribution of data. The primary objective of density estimation is to estimate the probability density function of a random variable. This process is particularly valuable when dealing with univariate or multivariate data and is essential for tasks such as clustering, anomaly detection, and generative modeling. In this paper we propose the mono-variate approximation of the density using spline quasi interpolation and we applied it in the context of clustering modeling. The clustering technique used is based on the construction of suitable multivariate distributions which rely on the estimation of the monovariate empirical densities (marginals). Such an approximation is achieved by using the proposed spline quasi-interpolation, while the joint distributions to model the sought clustering partition is constructed with the use of copulas functions. In particular, since copulas can capture the dependence between the features of the data independently from the marginal distributions, a finite mixture copula model is proposed. The presented algorithm is validated on artificial and real datasets.
We provide full theoretical guarantees for the convergence behaviour of diffusion-based generative models under the assumption of strongly log-concave data distributions while our approximating class of functions used for score estimation is made of Lipschitz continuous functions. We demonstrate via a motivating example, sampling from a Gaussian distribution with unknown mean, the powerfulness of our approach. In this case, explicit estimates are provided for the associated optimization problem, i.e. score approximation, while these are combined with the corresponding sampling estimates. As a result, we obtain the best known upper bound estimates in terms of key quantities of interest, such as the dimension and rates of convergence, for the Wasserstein-2 distance between the data distribution (Gaussian with unknown mean) and our sampling algorithm. Beyond the motivating example and in order to allow for the use of a diverse range of stochastic optimizers, we present our results using an $L^2$-accurate score estimation assumption, which crucially is formed under an expectation with respect to the stochastic optimizer and our novel auxiliary process that uses only known information. This approach yields the best known convergence rate for our sampling algorithm.
Deep generative models are key-enabling technology to computer vision, text generation, and large language models. Denoising diffusion probabilistic models (DDPMs) have recently gained much attention due to their ability to generate diverse and high-quality samples in many computer vision tasks, as well as to incorporate flexible model architectures and a relatively simple training scheme. Quantum generative models, empowered by entanglement and superposition, have brought new insight to learning classical and quantum data. Inspired by the classical counterpart, we propose the quantum denoising diffusion probabilistic model (QuDDPM) to enable efficiently trainable generative learning of quantum data. QuDDPM adopts sufficient layers of circuits to guarantee expressivity, while it introduces multiple intermediate training tasks as interpolation between the target distribution and noise to avoid barren plateau and guarantee efficient training. We provide bounds on the learning error and demonstrate QuDDPM's capability in learning correlated quantum noise model, quantum many-body phases, and topological structure of quantum data. The results provide a paradigm for versatile and efficient quantum generative learning.
Normalizing flow is a class of deep generative models for efficient sampling and likelihood estimation, which achieves attractive performance, particularly in high dimensions. The flow is often implemented using a sequence of invertible residual blocks. Existing works adopt special network architectures and regularization of flow trajectories. In this paper, we develop a neural ODE flow network called JKO-iFlow, inspired by the Jordan-Kinderleherer-Otto (JKO) scheme, which unfolds the discrete-time dynamic of the Wasserstein gradient flow. The proposed method stacks residual blocks one after another, allowing efficient block-wise training of the residual blocks, avoiding sampling SDE trajectories and score matching or variational learning, thus reducing the memory load and difficulty in end-to-end training. We also develop adaptive time reparameterization of the flow network with a progressive refinement of the induced trajectory in probability space to improve the model accuracy further. Experiments with synthetic and real data show that the proposed JKO-iFlow network achieves competitive performance compared with existing flow and diffusion models at a significantly reduced computational and memory cost.
Deep neural networks used for reconstructing sparse-view CT data are typically trained by minimizing a pixel-wise mean-squared error or similar loss function over a set of training images. However, networks trained with such pixel-wise losses are prone to wipe out small, low-contrast features that are critical for screening and diagnosis. To remedy this issue, we introduce a novel training loss inspired by the model observer framework to enhance the detectability of weak signals in the reconstructions. We evaluate our approach on the reconstruction of synthetic sparse-view breast CT data, and demonstrate an improvement in signal detectability with the proposed loss.
We present ResMLP, an architecture built entirely upon multi-layer perceptrons for image classification. It is a simple residual network that alternates (i) a linear layer in which image patches interact, independently and identically across channels, and (ii) a two-layer feed-forward network in which channels interact independently per patch. When trained with a modern training strategy using heavy data-augmentation and optionally distillation, it attains surprisingly good accuracy/complexity trade-offs on ImageNet. We will share our code based on the Timm library and pre-trained models.
Artificial neural networks thrive in solving the classification problem for a particular rigid task, acquiring knowledge through generalized learning behaviour from a distinct training phase. The resulting network resembles a static entity of knowledge, with endeavours to extend this knowledge without targeting the original task resulting in a catastrophic forgetting. Continual learning shifts this paradigm towards networks that can continually accumulate knowledge over different tasks without the need to retrain from scratch. We focus on task incremental classification, where tasks arrive sequentially and are delineated by clear boundaries. Our main contributions concern 1) a taxonomy and extensive overview of the state-of-the-art, 2) a novel framework to continually determine the stability-plasticity trade-off of the continual learner, 3) a comprehensive experimental comparison of 11 state-of-the-art continual learning methods and 4 baselines. We empirically scrutinize method strengths and weaknesses on three benchmarks, considering Tiny Imagenet and large-scale unbalanced iNaturalist and a sequence of recognition datasets. We study the influence of model capacity, weight decay and dropout regularization, and the order in which the tasks are presented, and qualitatively compare methods in terms of required memory, computation time, and storage.
The remarkable practical success of deep learning has revealed some major surprises from a theoretical perspective. In particular, simple gradient methods easily find near-optimal solutions to non-convex optimization problems, and despite giving a near-perfect fit to training data without any explicit effort to control model complexity, these methods exhibit excellent predictive accuracy. We conjecture that specific principles underlie these phenomena: that overparametrization allows gradient methods to find interpolating solutions, that these methods implicitly impose regularization, and that overparametrization leads to benign overfitting. We survey recent theoretical progress that provides examples illustrating these principles in simpler settings. We first review classical uniform convergence results and why they fall short of explaining aspects of the behavior of deep learning methods. We give examples of implicit regularization in simple settings, where gradient methods lead to minimal norm functions that perfectly fit the training data. Then we review prediction methods that exhibit benign overfitting, focusing on regression problems with quadratic loss. For these methods, we can decompose the prediction rule into a simple component that is useful for prediction and a spiky component that is useful for overfitting but, in a favorable setting, does not harm prediction accuracy. We focus specifically on the linear regime for neural networks, where the network can be approximated by a linear model. In this regime, we demonstrate the success of gradient flow, and we consider benign overfitting with two-layer networks, giving an exact asymptotic analysis that precisely demonstrates the impact of overparametrization. We conclude by highlighting the key challenges that arise in extending these insights to realistic deep learning settings.
Machine-learning models have demonstrated great success in learning complex patterns that enable them to make predictions about unobserved data. In addition to using models for prediction, the ability to interpret what a model has learned is receiving an increasing amount of attention. However, this increased focus has led to considerable confusion about the notion of interpretability. In particular, it is unclear how the wide array of proposed interpretation methods are related, and what common concepts can be used to evaluate them. We aim to address these concerns by defining interpretability in the context of machine learning and introducing the Predictive, Descriptive, Relevant (PDR) framework for discussing interpretations. The PDR framework provides three overarching desiderata for evaluation: predictive accuracy, descriptive accuracy and relevancy, with relevancy judged relative to a human audience. Moreover, to help manage the deluge of interpretation methods, we introduce a categorization of existing techniques into model-based and post-hoc categories, with sub-groups including sparsity, modularity and simulatability. To demonstrate how practitioners can use the PDR framework to evaluate and understand interpretations, we provide numerous real-world examples. These examples highlight the often under-appreciated role played by human audiences in discussions of interpretability. Finally, based on our framework, we discuss limitations of existing methods and directions for future work. We hope that this work will provide a common vocabulary that will make it easier for both practitioners and researchers to discuss and choose from the full range of interpretation methods.
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