We present a numerically efficient approach for learning minimal equivalent martingale measures for market simulators of tradable instruments, e.g. for a spot price and options written on the same underlying. In the presence of transaction cost and trading restrictions, we relax the results to learning minimal equivalent "near-martingale measures" under which expected returns remain within prevailing bid/ask spreads. Our approach to thus "removing the drift" in a high dimensional complex space is entirely model-free and can be applied to any market simulator which does not exhibit classic arbitrage. The resulting model can be used for risk neutral pricing, or, in the case of transaction costs or trading constraints, for "Deep Hedging". We demonstrate our approach by applying it to two market simulators, an auto-regressive discrete-time stochastic implied volatility model, and a Generative Adversarial Network (GAN) based simulator, both of which trained on historical data of option prices under the statistical measure to produce realistic samples of spot and option prices. We comment on robustness with respect to estimation error of the original market simulator.
We consider situations where the applicability of sequential Monte Carlo particle filters is compromised due to the expensive evaluation of the particle weights. To alleviate this problem, we propose a new particle filter algorithm based on the multilevel approach. We show that the resulting multilevel bootstrap particle filter (MLBPF) retains the strong law of large numbers as well as the central limit theorem of classical particle filters under mild conditions. Our numerical experiments demonstrate up to 85\% reduction in computation time compared to the classical bootstrap particle filter, in certain settings. While it should be acknowledged that this reduction is highly application dependent, and a similar gain should not be expected for all applications across the board, we believe that this substantial improvement in certain settings makes MLBPF an important addition to the family of sequential Monte Carlo methods.
This paper presents a constrained policy gradient algorithm. We introduce constraints for safe learning with the following steps. First, learning is slowed down (lazy learning) so that the episodic policy change can be computed with the help of the policy gradient theorem and the neural tangent kernel. Then, this enables us the evaluation of the policy at arbitrary states too. In the same spirit, learning can be guided, ensuring safety via augmenting episode batches with states where the desired action probabilities are prescribed. Finally, exogenous discounted sum of future rewards (returns) can be computed at these specific state-action pairs such that the policy network satisfies constraints. Computing the returns is based on solving a system of linear equations (equality constraints) or a constrained quadratic program (inequality constraints, regional constraints). Simulation results suggest that adding constraints (external information) to the learning can improve learning in terms of speed and transparency reasonably if constraints are appropriately selected. The efficiency of the constrained learning was demonstrated with a shallow and wide ReLU network in the Cartpole and Lunar Lander OpenAI gym environments. The main novelty of the paper is giving a practical use of the neural tangent kernel in reinforcement learning.
An informative measurement is the most efficient way to gain information about an unknown state. We give a first-principles derivation of a general-purpose dynamic programming algorithm that returns an optimal sequence of informative measurements by sequentially maximizing the entropy of possible measurement outcomes. This algorithm can be used by an autonomous agent or robot to decide where best to measure next, planning a path corresponding to an optimal sequence of informative measurements. The algorithm is applicable to states and controls that are continuous or discrete, and agent dynamics that is either stochastic or deterministic; including Markov decision processes and Gaussian processes. Recent results from approximate dynamic programming and reinforcement learning, including on-line approximations such as rollout and Monte Carlo tree search, allow the measurement task to be solved in real-time. The resulting solutions include non-myopic paths and measurement sequences that can generally outperform, sometimes substantially, commonly used greedy approaches. This is demonstrated for a global search problem, where on-line planning with an extended local search is found to reduce the number of measurements in the search by approximately half. A variant of the algorithm is derived for Gaussian processes for active sensing.
We propose GradTail, an algorithm that uses gradients to improve model performance on the fly in the face of long-tailed training data distributions. Unlike conventional long-tail classifiers which operate on converged - and possibly overfit - models, we demonstrate that an approach based on gradient dot product agreement can isolate long-tailed data early on during model training and improve performance by dynamically picking higher sample weights for that data. We show that such upweighting leads to model improvements for both classification and regression models, the latter of which are relatively unexplored in the long-tail literature, and that the long-tail examples found by gradient alignment are consistent with our semantic expectations.
Rayleigh-Taylor instability is a classical hydrodynamic instability of great interest in various disciplines of science and engineering, including astrophyics, atmospheric sciences and climate, geophysics, and fusion energy. Analytical methods cannot be applied to explain the long-time behavior of Rayleigh-Taylor instability, and therefore numerical simulation of the full problem is required. However, in order to capture the growth of amplitude of perturbations accurately, both the spatial and temporal discretization need to be extremely fine for traditional numerical methods, and the long-time simulation may become prohibitively expensive. In this paper, we propose efficient reduced order model techniques to accelerate the simulation of Rayleigh-Taylor instability in compressible gas dynamics. We introduce a general framework for decomposing the solution manifold to construct the temporal domain partition and temporally-local reduced order model construction with varying Atwood number. We propose two practical approaches in this framework, namely decomposition by using physical time and penetration distance respectively. Numerical results are presented to examine the performance of the proposed approaches.
Standard contrastive learning approaches usually require a large number of negatives for effective unsupervised learning and often exhibit slow convergence. We suspect this behavior is due to the suboptimal selection of negatives used for offering contrast to the positives. We counter this difficulty by taking inspiration from support vector machines (SVMs) to present max-margin contrastive learning (MMCL). Our approach selects negatives as the sparse support vectors obtained via a quadratic optimization problem, and contrastiveness is enforced by maximizing the decision margin. As SVM optimization can be computationally demanding, especially in an end-to-end setting, we present simplifications that alleviate the computational burden. We validate our approach on standard vision benchmark datasets, demonstrating better performance in unsupervised representation learning over state-of-the-art, while having better empirical convergence properties.
We study constrained reinforcement learning (CRL) from a novel perspective by setting constraints directly on state density functions, rather than the value functions considered by previous works. State density has a clear physical and mathematical interpretation, and is able to express a wide variety of constraints such as resource limits and safety requirements. Density constraints can also avoid the time-consuming process of designing and tuning cost functions required by value function-based constraints to encode system specifications. We leverage the duality between density functions and Q functions to develop an effective algorithm to solve the density constrained RL problem optimally and the constrains are guaranteed to be satisfied. We prove that the proposed algorithm converges to a near-optimal solution with a bounded error even when the policy update is imperfect. We use a set of comprehensive experiments to demonstrate the advantages of our approach over state-of-the-art CRL methods, with a wide range of density constrained tasks as well as standard CRL benchmarks such as Safety-Gym.
While existing work in robust deep learning has focused on small pixel-level $\ell_p$ norm-based perturbations, this may not account for perturbations encountered in several real world settings. In many such cases although test data might not be available, broad specifications about the types of perturbations (such as an unknown degree of rotation) may be known. We consider a setup where robustness is expected over an unseen test domain that is not i.i.d. but deviates from the training domain. While this deviation may not be exactly known, its broad characterization is specified a priori, in terms of attributes. We propose an adversarial training approach which learns to generate new samples so as to maximize exposure of the classifier to the attributes-space, without having access to the data from the test domain. Our adversarial training solves a min-max optimization problem, with the inner maximization generating adversarial perturbations, and the outer minimization finding model parameters by optimizing the loss on adversarial perturbations generated from the inner maximization. We demonstrate the applicability of our approach on three types of naturally occurring perturbations -- object-related shifts, geometric transformations, and common image corruptions. Our approach enables deep neural networks to be robust against a wide range of naturally occurring perturbations. We demonstrate the usefulness of the proposed approach by showing the robustness gains of deep neural networks trained using our adversarial training on MNIST, CIFAR-10, and a new variant of the CLEVR dataset.
This paper proposes a model-free Reinforcement Learning (RL) algorithm to synthesise policies for an unknown Markov Decision Process (MDP), such that a linear time property is satisfied. We convert the given property into a Limit Deterministic Buchi Automaton (LDBA), then construct a synchronized MDP between the automaton and the original MDP. According to the resulting LDBA, a reward function is then defined over the state-action pairs of the product MDP. With this reward function, our algorithm synthesises a policy whose traces satisfies the linear time property: as such, the policy synthesis procedure is "constrained" by the given specification. Additionally, we show that the RL procedure sets up an online value iteration method to calculate the maximum probability of satisfying the given property, at any given state of the MDP - a convergence proof for the procedure is provided. Finally, the performance of the algorithm is evaluated via a set of numerical examples. We observe an improvement of one order of magnitude in the number of iterations required for the synthesis compared to existing approaches.