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A key problem in robotic locomotion is in finding optimal shape changes to effectively displace systems through the world. Variational techniques for gait optimization require estimates of body displacement per gait cycle; however, these estimates introduce error due to unincluded high order terms. In this paper, we formulate existing estimates for displacement, and describe the contribution of low order terms to these estimates. We additionally describe the magnitude of higher (third) order effects, and identify that choice of body coordinate, gait diameter, and starting phase influence these effects. We demonstrate that variation of such parameters on two example systems (the differential drive car and Purcell swimmer) effectively manages third order contributions.

Bayesian inference allows machine learning models to express uncertainty. Current machine learning models use only a single learnable parameter combination when making predictions, and as a result are highly overconfident when their predictions are wrong. To use more learnable parameter combinations efficiently, these samples must be drawn from the posterior distribution. Unfortunately computing the posterior directly is infeasible, so often researchers approximate it with a well known distribution such as a Gaussian. In this paper, we show that through the use of high-capacity persistent storage, models whose posterior distribution was too big to approximate are now feasible, leading to improved predictions in downstream tasks.

There is a growing interest in the estimation of the number of unseen features, mostly driven by biological applications. A recent work brought out a peculiar property of the popular completely random measures (CRMs) as prior models in Bayesian nonparametric (BNP) inference for the unseen-features problem: for fixed prior's parameters, they all lead to a Poisson posterior distribution for the number of unseen features, which depends on the sampling information only through the sample size. CRMs are thus not a flexible prior model for the unseen-features problem and, while the Poisson posterior distribution may be appealing for analytical tractability and ease of interpretability, its independence from the sampling information makes the BNP approach a questionable oversimplification, with posterior inferences being completely determined by the estimation of unknown prior's parameters. In this paper, we introduce the stable-Beta scaled process (SB-SP) prior, and we show that it allows to enrich the posterior distribution of the number of unseen features arising under CRM priors, while maintaining its analytical tractability and interpretability. That is, the SB-SP prior leads to a negative Binomial posterior distribution, which depends on the sampling information through the sample size and the number of distinct features, with corresponding estimates being simple, linear in the sampling information and computationally efficient. We apply our BNP approach to synthetic data and to real cancer genomic data, showing that: i) it outperforms the most popular parametric and nonparametric competitors in terms of estimation accuracy; ii) it provides improved coverage for the estimation with respect to a BNP approach under CRM priors.

Ensemble methods based on subsampling, such as random forests, are popular in applications due to their high predictive accuracy. Existing literature views a random forest prediction as an infinite-order incomplete U-statistic to quantify its uncertainty. However, these methods focus on a small subsampling size of each tree, which is theoretically valid but practically limited. This paper develops an unbiased variance estimator based on incomplete U-statistics, which allows the tree size to be comparable with the overall sample size, making statistical inference possible in a broader range of real applications. Simulation results demonstrate that our estimators enjoy lower bias and more accurate confidence interval coverage without additional computational costs. We also propose a local smoothing procedure to reduce the variation of our estimator, which shows improved numerical performance when the number of trees is relatively small. Further, we investigate the ratio consistency of our proposed variance estimator under specific scenarios. In particular, we develop a new "double U-statistic" formulation to analyze the Hoeffding decomposition of the estimator's variance.

We introduce an ensemble of artificial intelligence models for gravitational wave detection that we trained in the Summit supercomputer using 32 nodes, equivalent to 192 NVIDIA V100 GPUs, within 2 hours. Once fully trained, we optimized these models for accelerated inference using NVIDIA TensorRT. We deployed our inference-optimized AI ensemble in the ThetaGPU supercomputer at Argonne Leadership Computer Facility to conduct distributed inference. Using the entire ThetaGPU supercomputer, consisting of 20 nodes each of which has 8 NVIDIA A100 Tensor Core GPUs and 2 AMD Rome CPUs, our NVIDIA TensorRT-optimized AI ensemble processed an entire month of advanced LIGO data (including Hanford and Livingston data streams) within 50 seconds. Our inference-optimized AI ensemble retains the same sensitivity of traditional AI models, namely, it identifies all known binary black hole mergers previously identified in this advanced LIGO dataset and reports no misclassifications, while also providing a 3X inference speedup compared to traditional artificial intelligence models. We used time slides to quantify the performance of our AI ensemble to process up to 5 years worth of advanced LIGO data. In this synthetically enhanced dataset, our AI ensemble reports an average of one misclassification for every month of searched advanced LIGO data. We also present the receiver operating characteristic curve of our AI ensemble using this 5 year long advanced LIGO dataset. This approach provides the required tools to conduct accelerated, AI-driven gravitational wave detection at scale.

The remarkable practical success of deep learning has revealed some major surprises from a theoretical perspective. In particular, simple gradient methods easily find near-optimal solutions to non-convex optimization problems, and despite giving a near-perfect fit to training data without any explicit effort to control model complexity, these methods exhibit excellent predictive accuracy. We conjecture that specific principles underlie these phenomena: that overparametrization allows gradient methods to find interpolating solutions, that these methods implicitly impose regularization, and that overparametrization leads to benign overfitting. We survey recent theoretical progress that provides examples illustrating these principles in simpler settings. We first review classical uniform convergence results and why they fall short of explaining aspects of the behavior of deep learning methods. We give examples of implicit regularization in simple settings, where gradient methods lead to minimal norm functions that perfectly fit the training data. Then we review prediction methods that exhibit benign overfitting, focusing on regression problems with quadratic loss. For these methods, we can decompose the prediction rule into a simple component that is useful for prediction and a spiky component that is useful for overfitting but, in a favorable setting, does not harm prediction accuracy. We focus specifically on the linear regime for neural networks, where the network can be approximated by a linear model. In this regime, we demonstrate the success of gradient flow, and we consider benign overfitting with two-layer networks, giving an exact asymptotic analysis that precisely demonstrates the impact of overparametrization. We conclude by highlighting the key challenges that arise in extending these insights to realistic deep learning settings.

Minimizing cross-entropy over the softmax scores of a linear map composed with a high-capacity encoder is arguably the most popular choice for training neural networks on supervised learning tasks. However, recent works show that one can directly optimize the encoder instead, to obtain equally (or even more) discriminative representations via a supervised variant of a contrastive objective. In this work, we address the question whether there are fundamental differences in the sought-for representation geometry in the output space of the encoder at minimal loss. Specifically, we prove, under mild assumptions, that both losses attain their minimum once the representations of each class collapse to the vertices of a regular simplex, inscribed in a hypersphere. We provide empirical evidence that this configuration is attained in practice and that reaching a close-to-optimal state typically indicates good generalization performance. Yet, the two losses show remarkably different optimization behavior. The number of iterations required to perfectly fit to data scales superlinearly with the amount of randomly flipped labels for the supervised contrastive loss. This is in contrast to the approximately linear scaling previously reported for networks trained with cross-entropy.

This paper focuses on the expected difference in borrower's repayment when there is a change in the lender's credit decisions. Classical estimators overlook the confounding effects and hence the estimation error can be magnificent. As such, we propose another approach to construct the estimators such that the error can be greatly reduced. The proposed estimators are shown to be unbiased, consistent, and robust through a combination of theoretical analysis and numerical testing. Moreover, we compare the power of estimating the causal quantities between the classical estimators and the proposed estimators. The comparison is tested across a wide range of models, including linear regression models, tree-based models, and neural network-based models, under different simulated datasets that exhibit different levels of causality, different degrees of nonlinearity, and different distributional properties. Most importantly, we apply our approaches to a large observational dataset provided by a global technology firm that operates in both the e-commerce and the lending business. We find that the relative reduction of estimation error is strikingly substantial if the causal effects are accounted for correctly.

Matter evolved under influence of gravity from minuscule density fluctuations. Non-perturbative structure formed hierarchically over all scales, and developed non-Gaussian features in the Universe, known as the Cosmic Web. To fully understand the structure formation of the Universe is one of the holy grails of modern astrophysics. Astrophysicists survey large volumes of the Universe and employ a large ensemble of computer simulations to compare with the observed data in order to extract the full information of our own Universe. However, to evolve trillions of galaxies over billions of years even with the simplest physics is a daunting task. We build a deep neural network, the Deep Density Displacement Model (hereafter D$^3$M), to predict the non-linear structure formation of the Universe from simple linear perturbation theory. Our extensive analysis, demonstrates that D$^3$M outperforms the second order perturbation theory (hereafter 2LPT), the commonly used fast approximate simulation method, in point-wise comparison, 2-point correlation, and 3-point correlation. We also show that D$^3$M is able to accurately extrapolate far beyond its training data, and predict structure formation for significantly different cosmological parameters. Our study proves, for the first time, that deep learning is a practical and accurate alternative to approximate simulations of the gravitational structure formation of the Universe.

Combining Bayesian nonparametrics and a forward model selection strategy, we construct parsimonious Bayesian deep networks (PBDNs) that infer capacity-regularized network architectures from the data and require neither cross-validation nor fine-tuning when training the model. One of the two essential components of a PBDN is the development of a special infinite-wide single-hidden-layer neural network, whose number of active hidden units can be inferred from the data. The other one is the construction of a greedy layer-wise learning algorithm that uses a forward model selection criterion to determine when to stop adding another hidden layer. We develop both Gibbs sampling and stochastic gradient descent based maximum a posteriori inference for PBDNs, providing state-of-the-art classification accuracy and interpretable data subtypes near the decision boundaries, while maintaining low computational complexity for out-of-sample prediction.