We have recently witnessed a number of impressive results on hard mathematical reasoning problems with language models. At the same time, the robustness of these models has also been called into question; recent works have shown that models can rely on shallow patterns in the problem description when predicting a solution. Building on the idea of behavioral testing, we propose a novel framework, which pins down the causal effect of various factors in the input, e.g., the surface form of the problem text, the operands and math operators on the output solution. By grounding the behavioral analysis in a causal graph describing an intuitive reasoning process, we study the behavior of language models in terms of robustness and sensitivity to direct interventions in the input space. We apply our framework on a test bed of bivariate math word problems. Our analysis shows that robustness does not appear to continuously improve as a function of scale, but that the recent LLM, GPT-3-Instruct (175B), achieves a dramatic improvement in both robustness and sensitivity, compared to all other GPT variants.
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We study the compute-optimal trade-off between model and training data set sizes for large neural networks. Our result suggests a linear relation similar to that supported by the empirical analysis of Chinchilla. While that work studies transformer-based large language models trained on the MassiveText corpus (gopher), as a starting point for development of a mathematical theory, we focus on a simpler learning model and data generating process, each based on a neural network with a sigmoidal output unit and single hidden layer of ReLU activation units. We establish an upper bound on the minimal information-theoretically achievable expected error as a function of model and data set sizes. We then derive allocations of computation that minimize this bound. We present empirical results which suggest that this approximation correctly identifies an asymptotic linear compute-optimal scaling. This approximation can also generate new insights. Among other things, it suggests that, as the input space dimension or latent space complexity grows, as might be the case for example if a longer history of tokens is taken as input to a language model, a larger fraction of the compute budget should be allocated to growing the learning model rather than training data set.
Several problems in stochastic analysis are defined through their geometry, and preserving that geometric structure is essential to generating meaningful predictions. Nevertheless, how to design principled deep learning (DL) models capable of encoding these geometric structures remains largely unknown. We address this open problem by introducing a universal causal geometric DL framework in which the user specifies a suitable pair of geometries $\mathscr{X}$ and $\mathscr{Y}$ and our framework returns a DL model capable of causally approximating any ``regular'' map sending time series in $\mathscr{X}^{\mathbb{Z}}$ to time series in $\mathscr{Y}^{\mathbb{Z}}$ while respecting their forward flow of information throughout time. Suitable geometries on $\mathscr{Y}$ include various (adapted) Wasserstein spaces arising in optimal stopping problems, a variety of statistical manifolds describing the conditional distribution of continuous-time finite state Markov chains, and all Fr\'echet spaces admitting a Schauder basis, e.g. as in classical finance. Suitable, $\mathscr{X}$ are any compact subset of any Euclidean space. Our results all quantitatively express the number of parameters needed for our DL model to achieve a given approximation error as a function of the target map's regularity and the geometric structure both of $\mathscr{X}$ and of $\mathscr{Y}$. Even when omitting any temporal structure, our universal approximation theorems are the first guarantees that H\"older functions, defined between such $\mathscr{X}$ and $\mathscr{Y}$ can be approximated by DL models.
Many applications, such as system identification, classification of time series, direct and inverse problems in partial differential equations, and uncertainty quantification lead to the question of approximation of a non-linear operator between metric spaces $\mathfrak{X}$ and $\mathfrak{Y}$. We study the problem of determining the degree of approximation of such operators on a compact subset $K_\mathfrak{X}\subset \mathfrak{X}$ using a finite amount of information. If $\mathcal{F}: K_\mathfrak{X}\to K_\mathfrak{Y}$, a well established strategy to approximate $\mathcal{F}(F)$ for some $F\in K_\mathfrak{X}$ is to encode $F$ (respectively, $\mathcal{F}(F)$) in terms of a finite number $d$ (repectively $m$) of real numbers. Together with appropriate reconstruction algorithms (decoders), the problem reduces to the approximation of $m$ functions on a compact subset of a high dimensional Euclidean space $\mathbb{R}^d$, equivalently, the unit sphere $\mathbb{S}^d$ embedded in $\mathbb{R}^{d+1}$. The problem is challenging because $d$, $m$, as well as the complexity of the approximation on $\mathbb{S}^d$ are all large, and it is necessary to estimate the accuracy keeping track of the inter-dependence of all the approximations involved. In this paper, we establish constructive methods to do this efficiently; i.e., with the constants involved in the estimates on the approximation on $\mathbb{S}^d$ being $\mathcal{O}(d^{1/6})$. We study different smoothness classes for the operators, and also propose a method for approximation of $\mathcal{F}(F)$ using only information in a small neighborhood of $F$, resulting in an effective reduction in the number of parameters involved.
Step-by-step reasoning approaches like chain-of-thought (CoT) have proved to be a very effective technique to induce reasoning capabilities in large language models. However, the success of the CoT approach depends primarily on model size, and often billion parameter-scale models are needed to get CoT to work. In this paper, we propose a knowledge distillation approach, that leverages the step-by-step CoT reasoning capabilities of larger models and distils these reasoning abilities into smaller models. Our approach Decompositional Distillation learns a semantic decomposition of the original problem into a sequence of subproblems and uses it to train two models: a) a problem decomposer that learns to decompose the complex reasoning problem into a sequence of simpler sub-problems and b) a problem solver that uses the intermediate subproblems to solve the overall problem. On a multi-step math word problem dataset (GSM8K), we boost the performance of GPT-2 variants up to 35% when distilled with our approach compared to CoT. We show that using our approach, it is possible to train a GPT-2-large model (775M) that can outperform a 10X larger GPT-3 (6B) model trained using CoT reasoning. Finally, we also demonstrate that our approach of problem decomposition can also be used as an alternative to CoT prompting, which boosts the GPT-3 performance by 40% compared to CoT prompts.
The concept of causality plays an important role in human cognition . In the past few decades, causal inference has been well developed in many fields, such as computer science, medicine, economics, and education. With the advancement of deep learning techniques, it has been increasingly used in causal inference against counterfactual data. Typically, deep causal models map the characteristics of covariates to a representation space and then design various objective optimization functions to estimate counterfactual data unbiasedly based on the different optimization methods. This paper focuses on the survey of the deep causal models, and its core contributions are as follows: 1) we provide relevant metrics under multiple treatments and continuous-dose treatment; 2) we incorporate a comprehensive overview of deep causal models from both temporal development and method classification perspectives; 3) we assist a detailed and comprehensive classification and analysis of relevant datasets and source code.
Commonsense causality reasoning (CCR) aims at identifying plausible causes and effects in natural language descriptions that are deemed reasonable by an average person. Although being of great academic and practical interest, this problem is still shadowed by the lack of a well-posed theoretical framework; existing work usually relies on deep language models wholeheartedly, and is potentially susceptible to confounding co-occurrences. Motivated by classical causal principles, we articulate the central question of CCR and draw parallels between human subjects in observational studies and natural languages to adopt CCR to the potential-outcomes framework, which is the first such attempt for commonsense tasks. We propose a novel framework, ROCK, to Reason O(A)bout Commonsense K(C)ausality, which utilizes temporal signals as incidental supervision, and balances confounding effects using temporal propensities that are analogous to propensity scores. The ROCK implementation is modular and zero-shot, and demonstrates good CCR capabilities on various datasets.
Existing Collaborative Filtering (CF) methods are mostly designed based on the idea of matching, i.e., by learning user and item embeddings from data using shallow or deep models, they try to capture the associative relevance patterns in data, so that a user embedding can be matched with relevant item embeddings using designed or learned similarity functions. However, as a cognition rather than a perception intelligent task, recommendation requires not only the ability of pattern recognition and matching from data, but also the ability of cognitive reasoning in data. In this paper, we propose to advance Collaborative Filtering (CF) to Collaborative Reasoning (CR), which means that each user knows part of the reasoning space, and they collaborate for reasoning in the space to estimate preferences for each other. Technically, we propose a Neural Collaborative Reasoning (NCR) framework to bridge learning and reasoning. Specifically, we integrate the power of representation learning and logical reasoning, where representations capture similarity patterns in data from perceptual perspectives, and logic facilitates cognitive reasoning for informed decision making. An important challenge, however, is to bridge differentiable neural networks and symbolic reasoning in a shared architecture for optimization and inference. To solve the problem, we propose a modularized reasoning architecture, which learns logical operations such as AND ($\wedge$), OR ($\vee$) and NOT ($\neg$) as neural modules for implication reasoning ($\rightarrow$). In this way, logical expressions can be equivalently organized as neural networks, so that logical reasoning and prediction can be conducted in a continuous space. Experiments on real-world datasets verified the advantages of our framework compared with both shallow, deep and reasoning models.
This paper focuses on the expected difference in borrower's repayment when there is a change in the lender's credit decisions. Classical estimators overlook the confounding effects and hence the estimation error can be magnificent. As such, we propose another approach to construct the estimators such that the error can be greatly reduced. The proposed estimators are shown to be unbiased, consistent, and robust through a combination of theoretical analysis and numerical testing. Moreover, we compare the power of estimating the causal quantities between the classical estimators and the proposed estimators. The comparison is tested across a wide range of models, including linear regression models, tree-based models, and neural network-based models, under different simulated datasets that exhibit different levels of causality, different degrees of nonlinearity, and different distributional properties. Most importantly, we apply our approaches to a large observational dataset provided by a global technology firm that operates in both the e-commerce and the lending business. We find that the relative reduction of estimation error is strikingly substantial if the causal effects are accounted for correctly.
Incorporating knowledge graph into recommender systems has attracted increasing attention in recent years. By exploring the interlinks within a knowledge graph, the connectivity between users and items can be discovered as paths, which provide rich and complementary information to user-item interactions. Such connectivity not only reveals the semantics of entities and relations, but also helps to comprehend a user's interest. However, existing efforts have not fully explored this connectivity to infer user preferences, especially in terms of modeling the sequential dependencies within and holistic semantics of a path. In this paper, we contribute a new model named Knowledge-aware Path Recurrent Network (KPRN) to exploit knowledge graph for recommendation. KPRN can generate path representations by composing the semantics of both entities and relations. By leveraging the sequential dependencies within a path, we allow effective reasoning on paths to infer the underlying rationale of a user-item interaction. Furthermore, we design a new weighted pooling operation to discriminate the strengths of different paths in connecting a user with an item, endowing our model with a certain level of explainability. We conduct extensive experiments on two datasets about movie and music, demonstrating significant improvements over state-of-the-art solutions Collaborative Knowledge Base Embedding and Neural Factorization Machine.
The era of big data provides researchers with convenient access to copious data. However, people often have little knowledge about it. The increasing prevalence of big data is challenging the traditional methods of learning causality because they are developed for the cases with limited amount of data and solid prior causal knowledge. This survey aims to close the gap between big data and learning causality with a comprehensive and structured review of traditional and frontier methods and a discussion about some open problems of learning causality. We begin with preliminaries of learning causality. Then we categorize and revisit methods of learning causality for the typical problems and data types. After that, we discuss the connections between learning causality and machine learning. At the end, some open problems are presented to show the great potential of learning causality with data.
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