The rapid advancement of machine learning techniques has led to their widespread application in various domains including water resources. However, snowmelt modeling remains an area that has not been extensively explored. In this study, we propose a state-of-the-art (SOTA) deep learning sequential model, leveraging the Temporal Convolutional Network (TCN), for snowmelt-driven discharge modeling in the Himalayan basin of the Hindu Kush Himalayan Region. To evaluate the performance of our proposed model, we conducted a comparative analysis with other popular models including Support Vector Regression (SVR), Long Short Term Memory (LSTM), and Transformer. Furthermore, Nested cross-validation (CV) is used with five outer folds and three inner folds, and hyper-parameter tuning is performed on the inner folds. To evaluate the performance of the model mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE), R square ($R^{2}$), Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE), and Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) are computed for each outer fold. The average metrics revealed that TCN outperformed the other models, with an average MAE of 0.011, RMSE of 0.023, $R^{2}$ of 0.991, KGE of 0.992, and NSE of 0.991. The findings of this study demonstrate the effectiveness of the deep learning model as compared to traditional machine learning approaches for snowmelt-driven streamflow forecasting. Moreover, the superior performance of TCN highlights its potential as a promising deep learning model for similar hydrological applications.
The recent embrace of machine learning (ML) in the development of autonomous weapons systems (AWS) creates serious risks to geopolitical stability and the free exchange of ideas in AI research. This topic has received comparatively little attention of late compared to risks stemming from superintelligent artificial general intelligence (AGI), but requires fewer assumptions about the course of technological development and is thus a nearer-future issue. ML is already enabling the substitution of AWS for human soldiers in many battlefield roles, reducing the upfront human cost, and thus political cost, of waging offensive war. In the case of peer adversaries, this increases the likelihood of "low intensity" conflicts which risk escalation to broader warfare. In the case of non-peer adversaries, it reduces the domestic blowback to wars of aggression. This effect can occur regardless of other ethical issues around the use of military AI such as the risk of civilian casualties, and does not require any superhuman AI capabilities. Further, the military value of AWS raises the specter of an AI-powered arms race and the misguided imposition of national security restrictions on AI research. Our goal in this paper is to raise awareness among the public and ML researchers on the near-future risks posed by full or near-full autonomy in military technology, and we provide regulatory suggestions to mitigate these risks. We call upon AI policy experts and the defense AI community in particular to embrace transparency and caution in their development and deployment of AWS to avoid the negative effects on global stability and AI research that we highlight here.
Deep-learning-based techniques have been widely adopted for autonomous driving software stacks for mass production in recent years, focusing primarily on perception modules, with some work extending this method to prediction modules. However, the downstream planning and control modules are still designed with hefty handcrafted rules, dominated by optimization-based methods such as quadratic programming or model predictive control. This results in a performance bottleneck for autonomous driving systems in that corner cases simply cannot be solved by enumerating hand-crafted rules. We present a deep-learning-based approach that brings prediction, decision, and planning modules together with the attempt to overcome the rule-based methods' deficiency in real-world applications of autonomous driving, especially for urban scenes. The DNN model we proposed is solely trained with 10 hours of human driver data, and it supports all mass-production ADAS features available on the market to date. This method is deployed onto a Jiyue test car with no modification to its factory-ready sensor set and compute platform. the feasibility, usability, and commercial potential are demonstrated in this article.
Studying the robustness of machine learning models is important to ensure consistent model behaviour across real-world settings. To this end, adversarial robustness is a standard framework, which views robustness of predictions through a binary lens: either a worst-case adversarial misclassification exists in the local region around an input, or it does not. However, this binary perspective does not account for the degrees of vulnerability, as data points with a larger number of misclassified examples in their neighborhoods are more vulnerable. In this work, we consider a complementary framework for robustness, called average-case robustness, which measures the fraction of points in a local region that provides consistent predictions. However, computing this quantity is hard, as standard Monte Carlo approaches are inefficient especially for high-dimensional inputs. In this work, we propose the first analytical estimators for average-case robustness for multi-class classifiers. We show empirically that our estimators are accurate and efficient for standard deep learning models and demonstrate their usefulness for identifying vulnerable data points, as well as quantifying robustness bias of models. Overall, our tools provide a complementary view to robustness, improving our ability to characterize model behaviour.
The success of artificial intelligence (AI), and deep learning models in particular, has led to their widespread adoption across various industries due to their ability to process huge amounts of data and learn complex patterns. However, due to their lack of explainability, there are significant concerns regarding their use in critical sectors, such as finance and healthcare, where decision-making transparency is of paramount importance. In this paper, we provide a comparative survey of methods that aim to improve the explainability of deep learning models within the context of finance. We categorize the collection of explainable AI methods according to their corresponding characteristics, and we review the concerns and challenges of adopting explainable AI methods, together with future directions we deemed appropriate and important.
Recent contrastive representation learning methods rely on estimating mutual information (MI) between multiple views of an underlying context. E.g., we can derive multiple views of a given image by applying data augmentation, or we can split a sequence into views comprising the past and future of some step in the sequence. Contrastive lower bounds on MI are easy to optimize, but have a strong underestimation bias when estimating large amounts of MI. We propose decomposing the full MI estimation problem into a sum of smaller estimation problems by splitting one of the views into progressively more informed subviews and by applying the chain rule on MI between the decomposed views. This expression contains a sum of unconditional and conditional MI terms, each measuring modest chunks of the total MI, which facilitates approximation via contrastive bounds. To maximize the sum, we formulate a contrastive lower bound on the conditional MI which can be approximated efficiently. We refer to our general approach as Decomposed Estimation of Mutual Information (DEMI). We show that DEMI can capture a larger amount of MI than standard non-decomposed contrastive bounds in a synthetic setting, and learns better representations in a vision domain and for dialogue generation.
We present a large-scale study on unsupervised spatiotemporal representation learning from videos. With a unified perspective on four recent image-based frameworks, we study a simple objective that can easily generalize all these methods to space-time. Our objective encourages temporally-persistent features in the same video, and in spite of its simplicity, it works surprisingly well across: (i) different unsupervised frameworks, (ii) pre-training datasets, (iii) downstream datasets, and (iv) backbone architectures. We draw a series of intriguing observations from this study, e.g., we discover that encouraging long-spanned persistency can be effective even if the timespan is 60 seconds. In addition to state-of-the-art results in multiple benchmarks, we report a few promising cases in which unsupervised pre-training can outperform its supervised counterpart. Code is made available at //github.com/facebookresearch/SlowFast
The rapid advancements in machine learning, graphics processing technologies and availability of medical imaging data has led to a rapid increase in use of machine learning models in the medical domain. This was exacerbated by the rapid advancements in convolutional neural network (CNN) based architectures, which were adopted by the medical imaging community to assist clinicians in disease diagnosis. Since the grand success of AlexNet in 2012, CNNs have been increasingly used in medical image analysis to improve the efficiency of human clinicians. In recent years, three-dimensional (3D) CNNs have been employed for analysis of medical images. In this paper, we trace the history of how the 3D CNN was developed from its machine learning roots, brief mathematical description of 3D CNN and the preprocessing steps required for medical images before feeding them to 3D CNNs. We review the significant research in the field of 3D medical imaging analysis using 3D CNNs (and its variants) in different medical areas such as classification, segmentation, detection, and localization. We conclude by discussing the challenges associated with the use of 3D CNNs in the medical imaging domain (and the use of deep learning models, in general) and possible future trends in the field.
Graph neural networks (GNNs) are a popular class of machine learning models whose major advantage is their ability to incorporate a sparse and discrete dependency structure between data points. Unfortunately, GNNs can only be used when such a graph-structure is available. In practice, however, real-world graphs are often noisy and incomplete or might not be available at all. With this work, we propose to jointly learn the graph structure and the parameters of graph convolutional networks (GCNs) by approximately solving a bilevel program that learns a discrete probability distribution on the edges of the graph. This allows one to apply GCNs not only in scenarios where the given graph is incomplete or corrupted but also in those where a graph is not available. We conduct a series of experiments that analyze the behavior of the proposed method and demonstrate that it outperforms related methods by a significant margin.
Deep learning has revolutionized many machine learning tasks in recent years, ranging from image classification and video processing to speech recognition and natural language understanding. The data in these tasks are typically represented in the Euclidean space. However, there is an increasing number of applications where data are generated from non-Euclidean domains and are represented as graphs with complex relationships and interdependency between objects. The complexity of graph data has imposed significant challenges on existing machine learning algorithms. Recently, many studies on extending deep learning approaches for graph data have emerged. In this survey, we provide a comprehensive overview of graph neural networks (GNNs) in data mining and machine learning fields. We propose a new taxonomy to divide the state-of-the-art graph neural networks into different categories. With a focus on graph convolutional networks, we review alternative architectures that have recently been developed; these learning paradigms include graph attention networks, graph autoencoders, graph generative networks, and graph spatial-temporal networks. We further discuss the applications of graph neural networks across various domains and summarize the open source codes and benchmarks of the existing algorithms on different learning tasks. Finally, we propose potential research directions in this fast-growing field.
Recent advancements in deep neural networks for graph-structured data have led to state-of-the-art performance on recommender system benchmarks. However, making these methods practical and scalable to web-scale recommendation tasks with billions of items and hundreds of millions of users remains a challenge. Here we describe a large-scale deep recommendation engine that we developed and deployed at Pinterest. We develop a data-efficient Graph Convolutional Network (GCN) algorithm PinSage, which combines efficient random walks and graph convolutions to generate embeddings of nodes (i.e., items) that incorporate both graph structure as well as node feature information. Compared to prior GCN approaches, we develop a novel method based on highly efficient random walks to structure the convolutions and design a novel training strategy that relies on harder-and-harder training examples to improve robustness and convergence of the model. We also develop an efficient MapReduce model inference algorithm to generate embeddings using a trained model. We deploy PinSage at Pinterest and train it on 7.5 billion examples on a graph with 3 billion nodes representing pins and boards, and 18 billion edges. According to offline metrics, user studies and A/B tests, PinSage generates higher-quality recommendations than comparable deep learning and graph-based alternatives. To our knowledge, this is the largest application of deep graph embeddings to date and paves the way for a new generation of web-scale recommender systems based on graph convolutional architectures.