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We introduce a Loss Discounting Framework for model and forecast combination which generalises and combines Bayesian model synthesis and generalized Bayes methodologies. We use a loss function to score the performance of different models and introduce a multilevel discounting scheme which allows a flexible specification of the dynamics of the model weights. This novel and simple model combination approach can be easily applied to large scale model averaging/selection, can handle unusual features such as sudden regime changes, and can be tailored to different forecasting problems. We compare our method to both established methodologies and state of the art methods for a number of macroeconomic forecasting examples. We find that the proposed method offers an attractive, computationally efficient alternative to the benchmark methodologies and often outperforms more complex techniques.

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ACM/IEEE第23屆模型驅動工程語言和系統國際會議,是模型驅動軟件和系統工程的首要會議系列,由ACM-SIGSOFT和IEEE-TCSE支持組織。自1998年以來,模型涵蓋了建模的各個方面,從語言和方法到工具和應用程序。模特的參加者來自不同的背景,包括研究人員、學者、工程師和工業專業人士。MODELS 2019是一個論壇,參與者可以圍繞建模和模型驅動的軟件和系統交流前沿研究成果和創新實踐經驗。今年的版本將為建模社區提供進一步推進建模基礎的機會,并在網絡物理系統、嵌入式系統、社會技術系統、云計算、大數據、機器學習、安全、開源等新興領域提出建模的創新應用以及可持續性。 官網鏈接: · 估計/估計量 · 泛函 · 分解的 · ·
2023 年 1 月 31 日

This paper considers the problem of estimating the distribution of a response variable conditioned on observing some factors. Existing approaches are often deficient in one of the qualities of flexibility, interpretability and tractability. We propose a model that possesses these desirable properties. The proposed model, analogous to classic mixture regression models, models the conditional quantile function as a mixture (weighted sum) of basis quantile functions, with the weight of each basis quantile function being a function of the factors. The model can approximate any bounded conditional quantile model. It has a factor model structure with a closed-form expression. The calibration problem is formulated as convex optimization, which can be viewed as conducting quantile regressions of all confidence levels simultaneously and does not suffer from quantile crossing by design. The calibration is equivalent to minimization of Continuous Probability Ranked Score (CRPS). We prove the asymptotic normality of the estimator. Additionally, based on risk quadrangle framework, we generalize the proposed approach to conditional distributions defined by Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR), expectile and other functions of uncertainty measures. Based on CP decomposition of tensors, we propose a dimensionality reduction method by reducing the rank of the parameter tensor and propose an alternating algorithm for estimating the parameter tensor. Our numerical experiments demonstrate the efficiency of the approach.

We present a data-driven modeling and control framework for physics-based building emulators. Our approach comprises: (a) Offline training of differentiable surrogate models that speed up model evaluations, provide cheap gradients, and have good predictive accuracy for the receding horizon in Model Predictive Control (MPC) and (b) Formulating and solving nonlinear building HVAC MPC problems. We extensively verify the modeling and control performance using multiple surrogate models and optimization frameworks for different available test cases in the Building Optimization Testing Framework (BOPTEST). The framework is compatible with other modeling techniques and customizable with different control formulations. The modularity makes the approach future-proof for test cases currently in development for physics-based building emulators and provides a path toward prototyping predictive controllers in large buildings.

It is well established that increasing scale in deep transformer networks leads to improved quality and performance. This increase in scale often comes with an increase in compute cost and inference latency. Consequently, research into methods which help realize the benefits of increased scale without leading to an increase in the compute cost becomes important. We introduce Alternating Updates (AltUp), a simple-to-implement method to increase a model's capacity without the computational burden. AltUp enables the widening of the learned representation without increasing the computation time by working on a subblock of the representation at each layer. Our experiments on various transformer models and language tasks demonstrate the consistent effectiveness of alternating updates on a diverse set of benchmarks. Finally, we present extensions of AltUp to the sequence dimension, and demonstrate how AltUp can be synergistically combined with existing approaches, such as Sparse Mixture-of-Experts models, to obtain efficient models with even higher capacity.

Training deep networks and tuning hyperparameters on large datasets is computationally intensive. One of the primary research directions for efficient training is to reduce training costs by selecting well-generalizable subsets of training data. Compared to simple adaptive random subset selection baselines, existing intelligent subset selection approaches are not competitive due to the time-consuming subset selection step, which involves computing model-dependent gradients and feature embeddings and applies greedy maximization of submodular objectives. Our key insight is that removing the reliance on downstream model parameters enables subset selection as a pre-processing step and enables one to train multiple models at no additional cost. In this work, we propose MILO, a model-agnostic subset selection framework that decouples the subset selection from model training while enabling superior model convergence and performance by using an easy-to-hard curriculum. Our empirical results indicate that MILO can train models $3\times - 10 \times$ faster and tune hyperparameters $20\times - 75 \times$ faster than full-dataset training or tuning without compromising performance.

Models that can predict the occurrence of events ahead of time with low false-alarm rates are critical to the acceptance of decision support systems in the medical community. This challenging task is typically treated as a simple binary classification, ignoring temporal dependencies between samples, whereas we propose to exploit this structure. We first introduce a common theoretical framework unifying dynamic survival analysis and early event prediction. Following an analysis of objectives from both fields, we propose Temporal Label Smoothing (TLS), a simpler, yet best-performing method that preserves prediction monotonicity over time. By focusing the objective on areas with a stronger predictive signal, TLS improves performance over all baselines on two large-scale benchmark tasks. Gains are particularly notable along clinically relevant measures, such as event recall at low false-alarm rates. TLS reduces the number of missed events by up to a factor of two over previously used approaches in early event prediction.

The ease and the speed of spreading misinformation and propaganda on the Web motivate the need to develop trustworthy technology for detecting fallacies in natural language arguments. However, state-of-the-art language modeling methods exhibit a lack of robustness on tasks like logical fallacy classification that require complex reasoning. In this paper, we propose a Case-Based Reasoning method that classifies new cases of logical fallacy by language-modeling-driven retrieval and adaptation of historical cases. We design four complementary strategies to enrich the input representation for our model, based on external information about goals, explanations, counterarguments, and argument structure. Our experiments in in-domain and out-of-domain settings indicate that Case-Based Reasoning improves the accuracy and generalizability of language models. Our ablation studies confirm that the representations of similar cases have a strong impact on the model performance, that models perform well with fewer retrieved cases, and that the size of the case database has a negligible effect on the performance. Finally, we dive deeper into the relationship between the properties of the retrieved cases and the model performance.

Standard neural networks struggle to generalize under distribution shifts in computer vision. Fortunately, combining multiple networks can consistently improve out-of-distribution generalization. In particular, weight averaging (WA) strategies were shown to perform best on the competitive DomainBed benchmark; they directly average the weights of multiple networks despite their nonlinearities. In this paper, we propose Diverse Weight Averaging (DiWA), a new WA strategy whose main motivation is to increase the functional diversity across averaged models. To this end, DiWA averages weights obtained from several independent training runs: indeed, models obtained from different runs are more diverse than those collected along a single run thanks to differences in hyperparameters and training procedures. We motivate the need for diversity by a new bias-variance-covariance-locality decomposition of the expected error, exploiting similarities between WA and standard functional ensembling. Moreover, this decomposition highlights that WA succeeds when the variance term dominates, which we show occurs when the marginal distribution changes at test time. Experimentally, DiWA consistently improves the state of the art on DomainBed without inference overhead.

Deep learning shows great potential in generation tasks thanks to deep latent representation. Generative models are classes of models that can generate observations randomly with respect to certain implied parameters. Recently, the diffusion Model becomes a raising class of generative models by virtue of its power-generating ability. Nowadays, great achievements have been reached. More applications except for computer vision, speech generation, bioinformatics, and natural language processing are to be explored in this field. However, the diffusion model has its natural drawback of a slow generation process, leading to many enhanced works. This survey makes a summary of the field of the diffusion model. We firstly state the main problem with two landmark works - DDPM and DSM. Then, we present a diverse range of advanced techniques to speed up the diffusion models - training schedule, training-free sampling, mixed-modeling, and score & diffusion unification. Regarding existing models, we also provide a benchmark of FID score, IS, and NLL according to specific NFE. Moreover, applications with diffusion models are introduced including computer vision, sequence modeling, audio, and AI for science. Finally, there is a summarization of this field together with limitations & further directions.

Time Series Classification (TSC) is an important and challenging problem in data mining. With the increase of time series data availability, hundreds of TSC algorithms have been proposed. Among these methods, only a few have considered Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) to perform this task. This is surprising as deep learning has seen very successful applications in the last years. DNNs have indeed revolutionized the field of computer vision especially with the advent of novel deeper architectures such as Residual and Convolutional Neural Networks. Apart from images, sequential data such as text and audio can also be processed with DNNs to reach state-of-the-art performance for document classification and speech recognition. In this article, we study the current state-of-the-art performance of deep learning algorithms for TSC by presenting an empirical study of the most recent DNN architectures for TSC. We give an overview of the most successful deep learning applications in various time series domains under a unified taxonomy of DNNs for TSC. We also provide an open source deep learning framework to the TSC community where we implemented each of the compared approaches and evaluated them on a univariate TSC benchmark (the UCR/UEA archive) and 12 multivariate time series datasets. By training 8,730 deep learning models on 97 time series datasets, we propose the most exhaustive study of DNNs for TSC to date.

With the rapid increase of large-scale, real-world datasets, it becomes critical to address the problem of long-tailed data distribution (i.e., a few classes account for most of the data, while most classes are under-represented). Existing solutions typically adopt class re-balancing strategies such as re-sampling and re-weighting based on the number of observations for each class. In this work, we argue that as the number of samples increases, the additional benefit of a newly added data point will diminish. We introduce a novel theoretical framework to measure data overlap by associating with each sample a small neighboring region rather than a single point. The effective number of samples is defined as the volume of samples and can be calculated by a simple formula $(1-\beta^{n})/(1-\beta)$, where $n$ is the number of samples and $\beta \in [0,1)$ is a hyperparameter. We design a re-weighting scheme that uses the effective number of samples for each class to re-balance the loss, thereby yielding a class-balanced loss. Comprehensive experiments are conducted on artificially induced long-tailed CIFAR datasets and large-scale datasets including ImageNet and iNaturalist. Our results show that when trained with the proposed class-balanced loss, the network is able to achieve significant performance gains on long-tailed datasets.

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