In Hempel's paradox of the ravens, seeing a red pencil is considered as supporting evidence that all ravens are black. Also known as the Paradox of Confirmation, the paradox and its many resolutions indicate that we cannot underestimate the logical and statistical elements needed in the assessment of evidence in support of a hypothesis. Most of the previous analyses of the paradox are within the Bayesian framework. These analyses and Hempel himself generally accept the paradoxical conclusion; it feels paradoxical supposedly because the amount of evidence is extremely small. Here I describe a nonBayesian analysis of various statistical models with an accompanying likelihood-based reasoning. The analysis shows that the paradox feels paradoxical because there are natural models where observing a red pencil has no relevance to the color of ravens. In general the value of the evidence depends crucially on the sampling scheme and on the assumption about the underlying parameters of the relevant model.
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The approximate uniform sampling of graph realizations with a given degree sequence is an everyday task in several social science, computer science, engineering etc. projects. One approach is using Markov chains. The best available current result about the well-studied switch Markov chain is that it is rapidly mixing on P-stable degree sequences (see DOI:10.1016/j.ejc.2021.103421). The switch Markov chain does not change any degree sequence. However, there are cases where degree intervals are specified rather than a single degree sequence. (A natural scenario where this problem arises is in hypothesis testing on social networks that are only partially observed.) Rechner, Strowick, and M\"uller-Hannemann introduced in 2018 the notion of degree interval Markov chain which uses three (separately well-studied) local operations (switch, hinge-flip and toggle), and employing on degree sequence realizations where any two sequences under scrutiny have very small coordinate-wise distance. Recently Amanatidis and Kleer published a beautiful paper (arXiv:2110.09068), showing that the degree interval Markov chain is rapidly mixing if the sequences are coming from a system of very thin intervals which are centered not far from a regular degree sequence. In this paper we extend substantially their result, showing that the degree interval Markov chain is rapidly mixing if the intervals are centred at P-stable degree sequences.
Let $\sigma$ be a first-order signature and let $\mathbf{W}_n$ be the set of all $\sigma$-structures with domain $[n] = \{1, \ldots, n\}$. We can think of each structure in $\mathbf{W}_n$ as representing a "possible (state of the) world". By an inference framework we mean a class $\mathbf{F}$ of pairs $(\mathbb{P}, L)$, where $\mathbb{P} = (\mathbb{P}_n : n = 1, 2, 3, \ldots)$ and each $\mathbb{P}_n$ is a probability distribution on $\mathbb{W}_n$, and $L$ is a logic with truth values in the unit interval $[0, 1]$. From the point of view of probabilistic and logical expressivity one may consider an inference framework as optimal if it allows any pair $(\mathbb{P}, L)$ where $\mathbb{P} = (\mathbb{P}_n : n = 1, 2, 3, \ldots)$ is a sequence of probability distributions on $\mathbb{W}_n$ and $L$ is a logic. But from the point of view of using a pair $(\mathbb{P}, L)$ from such an inference framework for making inferences on $\mathbb{W}_n$ when $n$ is large we face the problem of computational complexity. This motivates looking for an "optimal" trade-off (in a given context) between expressivity and computational efficiency. We define a notion that an inference framework is "asymptotically at least as expressive" as another inference framework. This relation is a preorder and we describe a (strict) partial order on the equivalence classes of some inference frameworks that in our opinion are natural in the context of machine learning and artificial intelligence. The results have bearing on issues concerning efficient learning and probabilistic inference, but are also new instances of results in finite model theory about "almost sure elimination" of extra syntactic features (e.g quantifiers) beyond the connectives. Often such a result has a logical convergence law as a corollary.
The basic goal of survivable network design is to build cheap networks that guarantee the connectivity of certain pairs of nodes despite the failure of a few edges or nodes. A celebrated result by Jain [Combinatorica'01] provides a 2-approximation for a wide class of these problems. However nothing better is known even for very basic special cases, raising the natural question whether any improved approximation factor is possible at all. In this paper we address one of the most basic problems in this family for which 2 is still the best-known approximation factor, the Forest Augmentation Problem (FAP): given an undirected unweighted graph (that w.l.o.g. is a forest) and a collection of extra edges (links), compute a minimum cardinality subset of links whose addition to the graph makes it 2-edge-connected. Several better-than-2 approximation algorithms are known for the special case where the input graph is a tree, a.k.a. the Tree Augmentation Problem (TAP). Recently this was achieved also for the weighted version of TAP, and for the k-edge-connectivity generalization of TAP. These results heavily exploit the fact that the input graph is connected, a condition that does not hold in FAP. In this paper we breach the 2-approximation barrier for FAP. Our result is based on two main ingredients. First, we describe a reduction to the Path Augmentation Problem (PAP), the special case of FAP where the input graph is a collection of disjoint paths. Our reduction is not approximation preserving, however it is sufficiently accurate to improve on a factor 2 approximation. Second, we present a better-than-2 approximation algorithm for PAP, an open problem on its own. Here we exploit a novel notion of implicit credits which might turn out to be helpful in future related work.
Abstract visual reasoning (AVR) domain encompasses problems solving which requires the ability to reason about relations among entities present in a given scene. While humans, generally, solve AVR tasks in a "natural" way, even without prior experience, this type of problems has proven difficult for current machine learning systems. The paper summarises recent progress in applying deep learning methods to solving AVR problems, as a proxy for studying machine intelligence. We focus on the most common type of AVR tasks -- the Raven's Progressive Matrices (RPMs) -- and provide a comprehensive review of the learning methods and deep neural models applied to solve RPMs, as well as, the RPM benchmark sets. Performance analysis of the state-of-the-art approaches to solving RPMs leads to formulation of certain insights and remarks on the current and future trends in this area. We conclude the paper by demonstrating how real-world problems can benefit from the discoveries of RPM studies.
Lately, several benchmark studies have shown that the state of the art in some of the sub-fields of machine learning actually has not progressed despite progress being reported in the literature. The lack of progress is partly caused by the irreproducibility of many model comparison studies. Model comparison studies are conducted that do not control for many known sources of irreproducibility. This leads to results that cannot be verified by third parties. Our objective is to provide an overview of the sources of irreproducibility that are reported in the literature. We review the literature to provide an overview and a taxonomy in addition to a discussion on the identified sources of irreproducibility. Finally, we identify three lines of further inquiry.
The minimum energy path (MEP) describes the mechanism of reaction, and the energy barrier along the path can be used to calculate the reaction rate in thermal systems. The nudged elastic band (NEB) method is one of the most commonly used schemes to compute MEPs numerically. It approximates an MEP by a discrete set of configuration images, where the discretization size determines both computational cost and accuracy of the simulations. In this paper, we consider a discrete MEP to be a stationary state of the NEB method and prove an optimal convergence rate of the discrete MEP with respect to the number of images. Numerical simulations for the transitions of some several proto-typical model systems are performed to support the theory.
Enforcing fairness in private federated learning via the modified method of differential multipliers
Federated learning with differential privacy, or private federated learning, provides a strategy to train machine learning models while respecting users' privacy. However, differential privacy can disproportionately degrade the performance of the models on under-represented groups, as these parts of the distribution are difficult to learn in the presence of noise. Existing approaches for enforcing fairness in machine learning models have considered the centralized setting, in which the algorithm has access to the users' data. This paper introduces an algorithm to enforce group fairness in private federated learning, where users' data does not leave their devices. First, the paper extends the modified method of differential multipliers to empirical risk minimization with fairness constraints, thus providing an algorithm to enforce fairness in the central setting. Then, this algorithm is extended to the private federated learning setting. The proposed algorithm, \texttt{FPFL}, is tested on a federated version of the Adult dataset and an "unfair" version of the FEMNIST dataset. The experiments on these datasets show how private federated learning accentuates unfairness in the trained models, and how FPFL is able to mitigate such unfairness.
Holonomic functions play an essential role in Computer Algebra since they allow the application of many symbolic algorithms. Among all algorithmic attempts to find formulas for power series, the holonomic property remains the most important requirement to be satisfied by the function under consideration. The targeted functions mainly summarize that of meromorphic functions. However, expressions like $\tan(z)$, $z/(\exp(z)-1)$, $\sec(z)$, etc., particularly, reciprocals, quotients and compositions of holonomic functions, are generally not holonomic. Therefore their power series are inaccessible by the holonomic framework. From the mathematical dictionaries, one can observe that most of the known closed-form formulas of non-holonomic power series involve another sequence whose evaluation depends on some finite summations. In the case of $\tan(z)$ and $\sec(z)$ the corresponding sequences are the Bernoulli and Euler numbers, respectively. Thus providing a symbolic approach that yields complete representations when linear summations for power series coefficients of non-holonomic functions appear, might be seen as a step forward towards the representation of non-holonomic power series. By adapting the method of ansatz with undetermined coefficients, we build an algorithm that computes least-order quadratic differential equations with polynomial coefficients for a large class of non-holonomic functions. A differential equation resulting from this procedure is converted into a recurrence equation by applying the Cauchy product formula and rewriting powers into polynomials and derivatives into shifts. Finally, using enough initial values we are able to give normal form representations to characterize several non-holonomic power series and prove non-trivial identities. We discuss this algorithm and its implementation for Maple 2022.
In a sports competition, a team might lose a powerful incentive to exert full effort if its final rank does not depend on the outcome of the matches still to be played. Therefore, the organiser should reduce the probability of such a situation to the extent possible. Our paper provides a classification scheme to identify these weakly (where one team is indifferent) or strongly (where both teams are indifferent) stakeless games. A statistical model is estimated to simulate the UEFA Champions League groups and compare the candidate schedules used in the 2021/22 season according to the competitiveness of the matches played in the last round(s). The option followed in four of the eight groups is found to be optimal under a wide set of parameters. Minimising the number of strongly stakeless matches is verified to be a likely goal in the computer draw of the fixture that remains hidden from the public.
Since deep neural networks were developed, they have made huge contributions to everyday lives. Machine learning provides more rational advice than humans are capable of in almost every aspect of daily life. However, despite this achievement, the design and training of neural networks are still challenging and unpredictable procedures. To lower the technical thresholds for common users, automated hyper-parameter optimization (HPO) has become a popular topic in both academic and industrial areas. This paper provides a review of the most essential topics on HPO. The first section introduces the key hyper-parameters related to model training and structure, and discusses their importance and methods to define the value range. Then, the research focuses on major optimization algorithms and their applicability, covering their efficiency and accuracy especially for deep learning networks. This study next reviews major services and toolkits for HPO, comparing their support for state-of-the-art searching algorithms, feasibility with major deep learning frameworks, and extensibility for new modules designed by users. The paper concludes with problems that exist when HPO is applied to deep learning, a comparison between optimization algorithms, and prominent approaches for model evaluation with limited computational resources.
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