Large amounts of training data are one of the major reasons for the high performance of state-of-the-art NLP models. But what exactly in the training data causes a model to make a certain prediction? We seek to answer this question by providing a language for describing how training data influences predictions, through a causal framework. Importantly, our framework bypasses the need to retrain expensive models and allows us to estimate causal effects based on observational data alone. Addressing the problem of extracting factual knowledge from pretrained language models (PLMs), we focus on simple data statistics such as co-occurrence counts and show that these statistics do influence the predictions of PLMs, suggesting that such models rely on shallow heuristics. Our causal framework and our results demonstrate the importance of studying datasets and the benefits of causality for understanding NLP models.
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Recent artificial intelligence (AI) systems have reached milestones in "grand challenges" ranging from Go to protein-folding. The capability to retrieve medical knowledge, reason over it, and answer medical questions comparably to physicians has long been viewed as one such grand challenge. Large language models (LLMs) have catalyzed significant progress in medical question answering; Med-PaLM was the first model to exceed a "passing" score in US Medical Licensing Examination (USMLE) style questions with a score of 67.2% on the MedQA dataset. However, this and other prior work suggested significant room for improvement, especially when models' answers were compared to clinicians' answers. Here we present Med-PaLM 2, which bridges these gaps by leveraging a combination of base LLM improvements (PaLM 2), medical domain finetuning, and prompting strategies including a novel ensemble refinement approach. Med-PaLM 2 scored up to 86.5% on the MedQA dataset, improving upon Med-PaLM by over 19% and setting a new state-of-the-art. We also observed performance approaching or exceeding state-of-the-art across MedMCQA, PubMedQA, and MMLU clinical topics datasets. We performed detailed human evaluations on long-form questions along multiple axes relevant to clinical applications. In pairwise comparative ranking of 1066 consumer medical questions, physicians preferred Med-PaLM 2 answers to those produced by physicians on eight of nine axes pertaining to clinical utility (p < 0.001). We also observed significant improvements compared to Med-PaLM on every evaluation axis (p < 0.001) on newly introduced datasets of 240 long-form "adversarial" questions to probe LLM limitations. While further studies are necessary to validate the efficacy of these models in real-world settings, these results highlight rapid progress towards physician-level performance in medical question answering.
In this paper, we propose a series of fuzzy temporal protoforms in the framework of the automatic generation of quantitative and qualitative natural language descriptions of processes. The model includes temporal and causal information from processes and attributes, quantifies attributes in time during the process life-span and recalls causal relations and temporal distances between events, among other features. Through integrating process mining techniques and fuzzy sets within the usual Data-to-Text architecture, our framework is able to extract relevant quantitative temporal as well as structural information from a process and describe it in natural language involving uncertain terms. A real use-case in the cardiology domain is presented, showing the potential of our model for providing natural language explanations addressed to domain experts.
Many jobs rely on news to learn about causal events in the past and present, to make informed decisions and predictions about the future. With the ever-increasing amount of news and text available on the internet, there is a need to automate the extraction of causal events from unstructured texts. In this work, we propose a methodology to construct causal knowledge graphs (KGs) from news using two steps: (1) Extraction of Causal Relations, and (2) Argument Clustering and Representation into KG. We aim to build graphs that emphasize on recall, precision and interpretability. For extraction, although many earlier works already construct causal KGs from text, most adopt rudimentary pattern-based methods. We close this gap by using the latest BERT-based extraction models alongside pattern-based ones. As a result, we achieved a high recall, while still maintaining a high precision. For clustering, we utilized a topic modelling approach to cluster our arguments, so as to increase the connectivity of our graph. As a result, instead of 15,686 disconnected subgraphs, we were able to obtain 1 connected graph that enables users to infer more causal relationships from. Our final KG effectively captures and conveys causal relationships, validated through multiple use cases and user feedback.
Information spread through social networks is ubiquitous. Influence maximiza- tion (IM) algorithms aim to identify individuals who will generate the greatest spread through the social network if provided with information, and have been largely devel- oped with marketing in mind. In social networks with community structure, which are very common, IM algorithms focused solely on maximizing spread may yield signifi- cant disparities in information coverage between communities, which is problematic in settings such as public health messaging. While some IM algorithms aim to remedy disparity in information coverage using node attributes, none use the empirical com- munity structure within the network itself, which may be beneficial since communities directly affect the spread of information. Further, the use of empirical network struc- ture allows us to leverage community detection techniques, making it possible to run fair-aware algorithms when there are no relevant node attributes available, or when node attributes do not accurately capture network community structure. In contrast to other fair IM algorithms, this work relies on fitting a model to the social network which is then used to determine a seed allocation strategy for optimal fair information spread. We develop an algorithm to determine optimal seed allocations for expected fair coverage, defined through maximum entropy, provide some theoretical guarantees under appropriate conditions, and demonstrate its empirical accuracy on both simu- lated and real networks. Because this algorithm relies on a fitted network model and not on the network directly, it is well-suited for partially observed and noisy social networks.
Generating explanations for reinforcement learning (RL) is challenging as actions may produce long-term effects on the future. In this paper, we develop a novel framework for explainable RL by learning a causal world model without prior knowledge of the causal structure of the environment. The model captures the influence of actions, allowing us to interpret the long-term effects of actions through causal chains, which present how actions influence environmental variables and finally lead to rewards. Different from most explanatory models which suffer from low accuracy, our model remains accurate while improving explainability, making it applicable in model-based learning. As a result, we demonstrate that our causal model can serve as the bridge between explainability and learning.
Recent studies have experimentally shown that we can achieve in non-Euclidean metric space effective and efficient graph embedding, which aims to obtain the vertices' representations reflecting the graph's structure in the metric space. Specifically, graph embedding in hyperbolic space has experimentally succeeded in embedding graphs with hierarchical-tree structure, e.g., data in natural languages, social networks, and knowledge bases. However, recent theoretical analyses have shown a much higher upper bound on non-Euclidean graph embedding's generalization error than Euclidean one's, where a high generalization error indicates that the incompleteness and noise in the data can significantly damage learning performance. It implies that the existing bound cannot guarantee the success of graph embedding in non-Euclidean metric space in a practical training data size, which can prevent non-Euclidean graph embedding's application in real problems. This paper provides a novel upper bound of graph embedding's generalization error by evaluating the local Rademacher complexity of the model as a function set of the distances of representation couples. Our bound clarifies that the performance of graph embedding in non-Euclidean metric space, including hyperbolic space, is better than the existing upper bounds suggest. Specifically, our new upper bound is polynomial in the metric space's geometric radius $R$ and can be $O(\frac{1}{S})$ at the fastest, where $S$ is the training data size. Our bound is significantly tighter and faster than the existing one, which can be exponential to $R$ and $O(\frac{1}{\sqrt{S}})$ at the fastest. Specific calculations on example cases show that graph embedding in non-Euclidean metric space can outperform that in Euclidean space with much smaller training data than the existing bound has suggested.
Real-world data, such as administrative claims and electronic health records, are increasingly used for safety monitoring and to help guide regulatory decision-making. In these settings, it is important to document analytic decisions transparently and objectively to ensure that analyses meet their intended goals. The Causal Roadmap is an established framework that can guide and document analytic decisions through each step of the analytic pipeline, which will help investigators generate high-quality real-world evidence. In this paper, we illustrate the utility of the Causal Roadmap using two case studies previously led by workgroups sponsored by the Sentinel Initiative -- a program for actively monitoring the safety of regulated medical products. Each case example focuses on different aspects of the analytic pipeline for drug safety monitoring. The first case study shows how the Causal Roadmap encourages transparency, reproducibility, and objective decision-making for causal analyses. The second case study highlights how this framework can guide analytic decisions beyond inference on causal parameters, improving outcome ascertainment in clinical phenotyping. These examples provide a structured framework for implementing the Causal Roadmap in safety surveillance and guide transparent, reproducible, and objective analysis.
Causality can be described in terms of a structural causal model (SCM) that carries information on the variables of interest and their mechanistic relations. For most processes of interest the underlying SCM will only be partially observable, thus causal inference tries to leverage any exposed information. Graph neural networks (GNN) as universal approximators on structured input pose a viable candidate for causal learning, suggesting a tighter integration with SCM. To this effect we present a theoretical analysis from first principles that establishes a novel connection between GNN and SCM while providing an extended view on general neural-causal models. We then establish a new model class for GNN-based causal inference that is necessary and sufficient for causal effect identification. Our empirical illustration on simulations and standard benchmarks validate our theoretical proofs.
AI is undergoing a paradigm shift with the rise of models (e.g., BERT, DALL-E, GPT-3) that are trained on broad data at scale and are adaptable to a wide range of downstream tasks. We call these models foundation models to underscore their critically central yet incomplete character. This report provides a thorough account of the opportunities and risks of foundation models, ranging from their capabilities (e.g., language, vision, robotics, reasoning, human interaction) and technical principles(e.g., model architectures, training procedures, data, systems, security, evaluation, theory) to their applications (e.g., law, healthcare, education) and societal impact (e.g., inequity, misuse, economic and environmental impact, legal and ethical considerations). Though foundation models are based on standard deep learning and transfer learning, their scale results in new emergent capabilities,and their effectiveness across so many tasks incentivizes homogenization. Homogenization provides powerful leverage but demands caution, as the defects of the foundation model are inherited by all the adapted models downstream. Despite the impending widespread deployment of foundation models, we currently lack a clear understanding of how they work, when they fail, and what they are even capable of due to their emergent properties. To tackle these questions, we believe much of the critical research on foundation models will require deep interdisciplinary collaboration commensurate with their fundamentally sociotechnical nature.
In this paper, we propose Latent Relation Language Models (LRLMs), a class of language models that parameterizes the joint distribution over the words in a document and the entities that occur therein via knowledge graph relations. This model has a number of attractive properties: it not only improves language modeling performance, but is also able to annotate the posterior probability of entity spans for a given text through relations. Experiments demonstrate empirical improvements over both a word-based baseline language model and a previous approach that incorporates knowledge graph information. Qualitative analysis further demonstrates the proposed model's ability to learn to predict appropriate relations in context.
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