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Gaussian process (GP) regression is a Bayesian nonparametric method for regression and interpolation, offering a principled way of quantifying the uncertainties of predicted function values. For the quantified uncertainties to be well-calibrated, however, the covariance kernel of the GP prior has to be carefully selected. In this paper, we theoretically compare two methods for choosing the kernel in GP regression: cross-validation and maximum likelihood estimation. Focusing on the scale-parameter estimation of a Brownian motion kernel in the noiseless setting, we prove that cross-validation can yield asymptotically well-calibrated credible intervals for a broader class of ground-truth functions than maximum likelihood estimation, suggesting an advantage of the former over the latter.

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We study the role of information and access in capacity-constrained selection problems with fairness concerns. We develop a theoretical statistical discrimination framework, where each applicant has multiple features and is potentially strategic. The model formalizes the trade-off between the (potentially positive) informational role of a feature and its (negative) exclusionary nature when members of different social groups have unequal access to this feature. Our framework finds a natural application to recent policy debates on dropping standardized testing in college admissions. Our primary takeaway is that the decision to drop a feature (such as test scores) cannot be made without the joint context of the information provided by other features and how the requirement affects the applicant pool composition. Dropping a feature may exacerbate disparities by decreasing the amount of information available for each applicant, especially those from non-traditional backgrounds. However, in the presence of access barriers to a feature, the interaction between the informational environment and the effect of access barriers on the applicant pool size becomes highly complex. In this case, we provide a threshold characterization regarding when removing a feature improves both academic merit and diversity. Finally, using calibrated simulations in both the strategic and non-strategic settings, we demonstrate the presence of practical instances where the decision to eliminate standardized testing improves or worsens all metrics.

Nowadays, research into personalization has been focusing on explainability and fairness. Several approaches proposed in recent works are able to explain individual recommendations in a post-hoc manner or by explanation paths. However, explainability techniques applied to unfairness in recommendation have been limited to finding user/item features mostly related to biased recommendations. In this paper, we devised a novel algorithm that leverages counterfactuality methods to discover user unfairness explanations in the form of user-item interactions. In our counterfactual framework, interactions are represented as edges in a bipartite graph, with users and items as nodes. Our Bipartite Graph Explainer perturbs the topological structure to find an altered version (counterfactual explanation) that minimizes the disparity in utility between the protected and unprotected demographic groups. Experiments on four real-world graphs coming from various domains showed that our method can systematically explain user unfairness on three state-of-the-art GNN-based recommendation models. Moreover, an empirical evaluation of the perturbed network uncovered relevant patterns that justify the nature of the unfairness discovered by the generated explanations. The source code and the preprocessed data sets are available at //github.com/jackmedda/RS-BGExplainer.

Automation of High-Level Context (HLC) reasoning for intelligent systems at scale is imperative due to the unceasing accumulation of contextual data in the IoT era, the trend of the fusion of data from multi-sources, and the intrinsic complexity and dynamism of the context-based decision-making process. To mitigate this issue, we propose an automatic context reasoning framework CSM-H-R, which programmatically combines ontologies and states at runtime and the model-storage phase for attaining the ability to recognize meaningful HLC, and the resulting data representation can be applied to different reasoning techniques. Case studies are developed based on an intelligent elevator system in a smart campus setting. An implementation of the framework - a CSM Engine, and the experiments of translating the HLC reasoning into vector and matrix computing especially take care of the dynamic aspects of context and present the potentiality of using advanced mathematical and probabilistic models to achieve the next level of automation in integrating intelligent systems; meanwhile, privacy protection support is achieved by anonymization through label embedding and reducing information correlation. The code of this study is available at: //github.com/songhui01/CSM-H-R.

Pneumonia remains a significant cause of child mortality, particularly in developing countries where resources and expertise are limited. The automated detection of Pneumonia can greatly assist in addressing this challenge. In this research, an XOR based Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) is proposed to select deep features from the second last layer of a RegNet model, aiming to improve the accuracy of the CNN model on Pneumonia detection. The proposed XOR PSO algorithm offers simplicity by incorporating just one hyperparameter for initialization, and each iteration requires minimal computation time. Moreover, it achieves a balance between exploration and exploitation, leading to convergence on a suitable solution. By extracting 163 features, an impressive accuracy level of 98% was attained which demonstrates comparable accuracy to previous PSO-based methods. The source code of the proposed method is available in the GitHub repository.

Autonomous driving has achieved a significant milestone in research and development over the last decade. There is increasing interest in the field as the deployment of self-operating vehicles on roads promises safer and more ecologically friendly transportation systems. With the rise of computationally powerful artificial intelligence (AI) techniques, autonomous vehicles can sense their environment with high precision, make safe real-time decisions, and operate more reliably without human interventions. However, intelligent decision-making in autonomous cars is not generally understandable by humans in the current state of the art, and such deficiency hinders this technology from being socially acceptable. Hence, aside from making safe real-time decisions, the AI systems of autonomous vehicles also need to explain how these decisions are constructed in order to be regulatory compliant across many jurisdictions. Our study sheds a comprehensive light on developing explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) approaches for autonomous vehicles. In particular, we make the following contributions. First, we provide a thorough overview of the present gaps with respect to explanations in the state-of-the-art autonomous vehicle industry. We then show the taxonomy of explanations and explanation receivers in this field. Thirdly, we propose a framework for an architecture of end-to-end autonomous driving systems and justify the role of XAI in both debugging and regulating such systems. Finally, as future research directions, we provide a field guide on XAI approaches for autonomous driving that can improve operational safety and transparency towards achieving public approval by regulators, manufacturers, and all engaged stakeholders.

Traffic forecasting is an important factor for the success of intelligent transportation systems. Deep learning models including convolution neural networks and recurrent neural networks have been applied in traffic forecasting problems to model the spatial and temporal dependencies. In recent years, to model the graph structures in the transportation systems as well as the contextual information, graph neural networks (GNNs) are introduced as new tools and have achieved the state-of-the-art performance in a series of traffic forecasting problems. In this survey, we review the rapidly growing body of recent research using different GNNs, e.g., graph convolutional and graph attention networks, in various traffic forecasting problems, e.g., road traffic flow and speed forecasting, passenger flow forecasting in urban rail transit systems, demand forecasting in ride-hailing platforms, etc. We also present a collection of open data and source resources for each problem, as well as future research directions. To the best of our knowledge, this paper is the first comprehensive survey that explores the application of graph neural networks for traffic forecasting problems. We have also created a public Github repository to update the latest papers, open data and source resources.

Machine learning plays a role in many deployed decision systems, often in ways that are difficult or impossible to understand by human stakeholders. Explaining, in a human-understandable way, the relationship between the input and output of machine learning models is essential to the development of trustworthy machine-learning-based systems. A burgeoning body of research seeks to define the goals and methods of explainability in machine learning. In this paper, we seek to review and categorize research on counterfactual explanations, a specific class of explanation that provides a link between what could have happened had input to a model been changed in a particular way. Modern approaches to counterfactual explainability in machine learning draw connections to the established legal doctrine in many countries, making them appealing to fielded systems in high-impact areas such as finance and healthcare. Thus, we design a rubric with desirable properties of counterfactual explanation algorithms and comprehensively evaluate all currently-proposed algorithms against that rubric. Our rubric provides easy comparison and comprehension of the advantages and disadvantages of different approaches and serves as an introduction to major research themes in this field. We also identify gaps and discuss promising research directions in the space of counterfactual explainability.

Reinforcement learning (RL) is a popular paradigm for addressing sequential decision tasks in which the agent has only limited environmental feedback. Despite many advances over the past three decades, learning in many domains still requires a large amount of interaction with the environment, which can be prohibitively expensive in realistic scenarios. To address this problem, transfer learning has been applied to reinforcement learning such that experience gained in one task can be leveraged when starting to learn the next, harder task. More recently, several lines of research have explored how tasks, or data samples themselves, can be sequenced into a curriculum for the purpose of learning a problem that may otherwise be too difficult to learn from scratch. In this article, we present a framework for curriculum learning (CL) in reinforcement learning, and use it to survey and classify existing CL methods in terms of their assumptions, capabilities, and goals. Finally, we use our framework to find open problems and suggest directions for future RL curriculum learning research.

With the capability of modeling bidirectional contexts, denoising autoencoding based pretraining like BERT achieves better performance than pretraining approaches based on autoregressive language modeling. However, relying on corrupting the input with masks, BERT neglects dependency between the masked positions and suffers from a pretrain-finetune discrepancy. In light of these pros and cons, we propose XLNet, a generalized autoregressive pretraining method that (1) enables learning bidirectional contexts by maximizing the expected likelihood over all permutations of the factorization order and (2) overcomes the limitations of BERT thanks to its autoregressive formulation. Furthermore, XLNet integrates ideas from Transformer-XL, the state-of-the-art autoregressive model, into pretraining. Empirically, XLNet outperforms BERT on 20 tasks, often by a large margin, and achieves state-of-the-art results on 18 tasks including question answering, natural language inference, sentiment analysis, and document ranking.

Multi-relation Question Answering is a challenging task, due to the requirement of elaborated analysis on questions and reasoning over multiple fact triples in knowledge base. In this paper, we present a novel model called Interpretable Reasoning Network that employs an interpretable, hop-by-hop reasoning process for question answering. The model dynamically decides which part of an input question should be analyzed at each hop; predicts a relation that corresponds to the current parsed results; utilizes the predicted relation to update the question representation and the state of the reasoning process; and then drives the next-hop reasoning. Experiments show that our model yields state-of-the-art results on two datasets. More interestingly, the model can offer traceable and observable intermediate predictions for reasoning analysis and failure diagnosis.

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