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Privacy protection methods, such as differentially private mechanisms, introduce noise into resulting statistics which often results in complex and intractable sampling distributions. In this paper, we propose to use the simulation-based "repro sample" approach to produce statistically valid confidence intervals and hypothesis tests based on privatized statistics. We show that this methodology is applicable to a wide variety of private inference problems, appropriately accounts for biases introduced by privacy mechanisms (such as by clamping), and improves over other state-of-the-art inference methods such as the parametric bootstrap in terms of the coverage and type I error of the private inference. We also develop significant improvements and extensions for the repro sample methodology for general models (not necessarily related to privacy), including 1) modifying the procedure to ensure guaranteed coverage and type I errors, even accounting for Monte Carlo error, and 2) proposing efficient numerical algorithms to implement the confidence intervals and $p$-values.

Learning precise surrogate models of complex computer simulations and physical machines often require long-lasting or expensive experiments. Furthermore, the modeled physical dependencies exhibit nonlinear and nonstationary behavior. Machine learning methods that are used to produce the surrogate model should therefore address these problems by providing a scheme to keep the number of queries small, e.g. by using active learning and be able to capture the nonlinear and nonstationary properties of the system. One way of modeling the nonstationarity is to induce input-partitioning, a principle that has proven to be advantageous in active learning for Gaussian processes. However, these methods either assume a known partitioning, need to introduce complex sampling schemes or rely on very simple geometries. In this work, we present a simple, yet powerful kernel family that incorporates a partitioning that: i) is learnable via gradient-based methods, ii) uses a geometry that is more flexible than previous ones, while still being applicable in the low data regime. Thus, it provides a good prior for active learning procedures. We empirically demonstrate excellent performance on various active learning tasks.

Diffusion model (DM) has achieved SOTA performance by modeling the image synthesis process into a sequential application of a denoising network. However, different from image synthesis generating each pixel from scratch, most pixels of image restoration (IR) are given. Thus, for IR, traditional DMs running massive iterations on a large model to estimate whole images or feature maps is inefficient. To address this issue, we propose an efficient DM for IR (DiffIR), which consists of a compact IR prior extraction network (CPEN), dynamic IR transformer (DIRformer), and denoising network. Specifically, DiffIR has two training stages: pretraining and training DM. In pretraining, we input ground-truth images into CPEN$_{S1}$ to capture a compact IR prior representation (IPR) to guide DIRformer. In the second stage, we train the DM to directly estimate the same IRP as pretrained CPEN$_{S1}$ only using LQ images. We observe that since the IPR is only a compact vector, DiffIR can use fewer iterations than traditional DM to obtain accurate estimations and generate more stable and realistic results. Since the iterations are few, our DiffIR can adopt a joint optimization of CPEN$_{S2}$, DIRformer, and denoising network, which can further reduce the estimation error influence. We conduct extensive experiments on several IR tasks and achieve SOTA performance while consuming less computational costs.

Offline reinforcement learning (RL) aims to infer sequential decision policies using only offline datasets. This is a particularly difficult setup, especially when learning to achieve multiple different goals or outcomes under a given scenario with only sparse rewards. For offline learning of goal-conditioned policies via supervised learning, previous work has shown that an advantage weighted log-likelihood loss guarantees monotonic policy improvement. In this work we argue that, despite its benefits, this approach is still insufficient to fully address the distribution shift and multi-modality problems. The latter is particularly severe in long-horizon tasks where finding a unique and optimal policy that goes from a state to the desired goal is challenging as there may be multiple and potentially conflicting solutions. To tackle these challenges, we propose a complementary advantage-based weighting scheme that introduces an additional source of inductive bias: given a value-based partitioning of the state space, the contribution of actions expected to lead to target regions that are easier to reach, compared to the final goal, is further increased. Empirically, we demonstrate that the proposed approach, Dual-Advantage Weighted Offline Goal-conditioned RL (DAWOG), outperforms several competing offline algorithms in commonly used benchmarks. Analytically, we offer a guarantee that the learnt policy is never worse than the underlying behaviour policy.

Consider a hiring process with candidates coming from different universities. It is easy to order candidates who have the exact same background, yet it can be challenging to compare candidates otherwise. The latter case requires additional assessments, leading to a potentially high total cost for the hiring organization. Given an assigned budget, what is the optimal strategy to select the most qualified candidate? In the absence of additional information, we model the above problem by introducing a new variant of the secretary problem. Completely ordered candidates, belonging to distinct groups, are arriving in a sequential manner. The decision maker has access to the partial order of the candidates within their own group and can request access to the total order of observed candidates by paying some price. Given a bounded budget of comparisons, the goal of the decision-maker is to maximize the probability of selecting the best candidate. We consider a special case of two groups with stochastic i.i.d.\ group membership. We introduce and analyze a particular family of algorithms that we called Dynamic Double Threshold (DDT) family, deriving its asymptotic success probability which, given an optimal choice of parameter converges rapidly to the theoretical upper bound of $1/e$ as the comparison budget growth. We provide an optimal non-asymptotic memory-less algorithm for the above problem and give numerical evidence that it belongs to the DDT family when the number of candidates is high. We compare theoretically and numerically the optimal algorithm with a more naive approach that is directly inspired by the standard single-threshold secretary algorithm. Our analysis reveals several alluring properties of the optimal algorithm. It provides a step towards a fairer online selection process in the presence of unidentifiable biases.

Many machine learning problems can be framed in the context of estimating functions, and often these are time-dependent functions that are estimated in real-time as observations arrive. Gaussian processes (GPs) are an attractive choice for modeling real-valued nonlinear functions due to their flexibility and uncertainty quantification. However, the typical GP regression model suffers from several drawbacks: 1) Conventional GP inference scales $O(N^{3})$ with respect to the number of observations; 2) Updating a GP model sequentially is not trivial; and 3) Covariance kernels typically enforce stationarity constraints on the function, while GPs with non-stationary covariance kernels are often intractable to use in practice. To overcome these issues, we propose a sequential Monte Carlo algorithm to fit infinite mixtures of GPs that capture non-stationary behavior while allowing for online, distributed inference. Our approach empirically improves performance over state-of-the-art methods for online GP estimation in the presence of non-stationarity in time-series data. To demonstrate the utility of our proposed online Gaussian process mixture-of-experts approach in applied settings, we show that we can sucessfully implement an optimization algorithm using online Gaussian process bandits.

Sequential decision making in the real world often requires finding a good balance of conflicting objectives. In general, there exist a plethora of Pareto-optimal policies that embody different patterns of compromises between objectives, and it is technically challenging to obtain them exhaustively using deep neural networks. In this work, we propose a novel multi-objective reinforcement learning (MORL) algorithm that trains a single neural network via policy gradient to approximately obtain the entire Pareto set in a single run of training, without relying on linear scalarization of objectives. The proposed method works in both continuous and discrete action spaces with no design change of the policy network. Numerical experiments in benchmark environments demonstrate the practicality and efficacy of our approach in comparison to standard MORL baselines.

This PhD thesis contains several contributions to the field of statistical causal modeling. Statistical causal models are statistical models embedded with causal assumptions that allow for the inference and reasoning about the behavior of stochastic systems affected by external manipulation (interventions). This thesis contributes to the research areas concerning the estimation of causal effects, causal structure learning, and distributionally robust (out-of-distribution generalizing) prediction methods. We present novel and consistent linear and non-linear causal effects estimators in instrumental variable settings that employ data-dependent mean squared prediction error regularization. Our proposed estimators show, in certain settings, mean squared error improvements compared to both canonical and state-of-the-art estimators. We show that recent research on distributionally robust prediction methods has connections to well-studied estimators from econometrics. This connection leads us to prove that general K-class estimators possess distributional robustness properties. We, furthermore, propose a general framework for distributional robustness with respect to intervention-induced distributions. In this framework, we derive sufficient conditions for the identifiability of distributionally robust prediction methods and present impossibility results that show the necessity of several of these conditions. We present a new structure learning method applicable in additive noise models with directed trees as causal graphs. We prove consistency in a vanishing identifiability setup and provide a method for testing substructure hypotheses with asymptotic family-wise error control that remains valid post-selection. Finally, we present heuristic ideas for learning summary graphs of nonlinear time-series models.

This book develops an effective theory approach to understanding deep neural networks of practical relevance. Beginning from a first-principles component-level picture of networks, we explain how to determine an accurate description of the output of trained networks by solving layer-to-layer iteration equations and nonlinear learning dynamics. A main result is that the predictions of networks are described by nearly-Gaussian distributions, with the depth-to-width aspect ratio of the network controlling the deviations from the infinite-width Gaussian description. We explain how these effectively-deep networks learn nontrivial representations from training and more broadly analyze the mechanism of representation learning for nonlinear models. From a nearly-kernel-methods perspective, we find that the dependence of such models' predictions on the underlying learning algorithm can be expressed in a simple and universal way. To obtain these results, we develop the notion of representation group flow (RG flow) to characterize the propagation of signals through the network. By tuning networks to criticality, we give a practical solution to the exploding and vanishing gradient problem. We further explain how RG flow leads to near-universal behavior and lets us categorize networks built from different activation functions into universality classes. Altogether, we show that the depth-to-width ratio governs the effective model complexity of the ensemble of trained networks. By using information-theoretic techniques, we estimate the optimal aspect ratio at which we expect the network to be practically most useful and show how residual connections can be used to push this scale to arbitrary depths. With these tools, we can learn in detail about the inductive bias of architectures, hyperparameters, and optimizers.

Image segmentation is still an open problem especially when intensities of the interested objects are overlapped due to the presence of intensity inhomogeneity (also known as bias field). To segment images with intensity inhomogeneities, a bias correction embedded level set model is proposed where Inhomogeneities are Estimated by Orthogonal Primary Functions (IEOPF). In the proposed model, the smoothly varying bias is estimated by a linear combination of a given set of orthogonal primary functions. An inhomogeneous intensity clustering energy is then defined and membership functions of the clusters described by the level set function are introduced to rewrite the energy as a data term of the proposed model. Similar to popular level set methods, a regularization term and an arc length term are also included to regularize and smooth the level set function, respectively. The proposed model is then extended to multichannel and multiphase patterns to segment colourful images and images with multiple objects, respectively. It has been extensively tested on both synthetic and real images that are widely used in the literature and public BrainWeb and IBSR datasets. Experimental results and comparison with state-of-the-art methods demonstrate that advantages of the proposed model in terms of bias correction and segmentation accuracy.