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As data-driven methods are deployed in real-world settings, the processes that generate the observed data will often react to the decisions of the learner. For example, a data source may have some incentive for the algorithm to provide a particular label (e.g. approve a bank loan), and manipulate their features accordingly. Work in strategic classification and decision-dependent distributions seeks to characterize the closed-loop behavior of deploying learning algorithms by explicitly considering the effect of the classifier on the underlying data distribution. More recently, works in performative prediction seek to classify the closed-loop behavior by considering general properties of the mapping from classifier to data distribution, rather than an explicit form. Building on this notion, we analyze repeated risk minimization as the perturbed trajectories of the gradient flows of performative risk minimization. We consider the case where there may be multiple local minimizers of performative risk, motivated by situations where the initial conditions may have significant impact on the long-term behavior of the system. We provide sufficient conditions to characterize the region of attraction for the various equilibria in this settings. Additionally, we introduce the notion of performative alignment, which provides a geometric condition on the convergence of repeated risk minimization to performative risk minimizers.

Estimating probability distributions which describe where an object is likely to be from camera data is a task with many applications. In this work we describe properties which we argue such methods should conform to. We also design a method which conform to these properties. In our experiments we show that our method produces uncertainties which correlate well with empirical errors. We also show that the mode of the predicted distribution outperform our regression baselines. The code for our implementation is available online.

Radial basis function neural networks (\emph{RBFNN}) are {well-known} for their capability to approximate any continuous function on a closed bounded set with arbitrary precision given enough hidden neurons. In this paper, we introduce the first algorithm to construct coresets for \emph{RBFNNs}, i.e., small weighted subsets that approximate the loss of the input data on any radial basis function network and thus approximate any function defined by an \emph{RBFNN} on the larger input data. In particular, we construct coresets for radial basis and Laplacian loss functions. We then use our coresets to obtain a provable data subset selection algorithm for training deep neural networks. Since our coresets approximate every function, they also approximate the gradient of each weight in a neural network, which is a particular function on the input. We then perform empirical evaluations on function approximation and dataset subset selection on popular network architectures and data sets, demonstrating the efficacy and accuracy of our coreset construction.

The precision matrix that encodes conditional linear dependency relations among a set of variables forms an important object of interest in multivariate analysis. Sparse estimation procedures for precision matrices such as the graphical lasso (Glasso) gained popularity as they facilitate interpretability, thereby separating pairs of variables that are conditionally dependent from those that are independent (given all other variables). Glasso lacks, however, robustness to outliers. To overcome this problem, one typically applies a robust plug-in procedure where the Glasso is computed from a robust covariance estimate instead of the sample covariance, thereby providing protection against outliers. In this paper, we study such estimators theoretically, by deriving and comparing their influence function, sensitivity curves and asymptotic variances.

In natural language processing (NLP) we always rely on human judgement as the golden quality evaluation method. However, there has been an ongoing debate on how to better evaluate inter-rater reliability (IRR) levels for certain evaluation tasks, such as translation quality evaluation (TQE), especially when the data samples (observations) are very scarce. In this work, we first introduce the study on how to estimate the confidence interval for the measurement value when only one data (evaluation) point is available. Then, this leads to our example with two human-generated observational scores, for which, we introduce ``Student's \textit{t}-Distribution'' method and explain how to use it to measure the IRR score using only these two data points, as well as the confidence intervals (CIs) of the quality evaluation. We give quantitative analysis on how the evaluation confidence can be greatly improved by introducing more observations, even if only one extra observation. We encourage researchers to report their IRR scores in all possible means, e.g. using Student's \textit{t}-Distribution method whenever possible; thus making the NLP evaluation more meaningful, transparent, and trustworthy. This \textit{t}-Distribution method can be also used outside of NLP fields to measure IRR level for trustworthy evaluation of experimental investigations, whenever the observational data is scarce. Keywords: Inter-Rater Reliability (IRR); Scarce Observations; Confidence Intervals (CIs); Natural Language Processing (NLP); Translation Quality Evaluation (TQE); Student's \textit{t}-Distribution

Training neural networks on a large dataset requires substantial computational costs. Dataset reduction selects or synthesizes data instances based on the large dataset, while minimizing the degradation in generalization performance from the full dataset. Existing methods utilize the neural network during the dataset reduction procedure, so the model parameter becomes important factor in preserving the performance after reduction. By depending upon the importance of parameters, this paper introduces a new reduction objective, coined LCMat, which Matches the Loss Curvatures of the original dataset and reduced dataset over the model parameter space, more than the parameter point. This new objective induces a better adaptation of the reduced dataset on the perturbed parameter region than the exact point matching. Particularly, we identify the worst case of the loss curvature gap from the local parameter region, and we derive the implementable upper bound of such worst-case with theoretical analyses. Our experiments on both coreset selection and condensation benchmarks illustrate that LCMat shows better generalization performances than existing baselines.

Machine learning algorithms typically assume independent and identically distributed samples in training and at test time. Much work has shown that high-performing ML classifiers can degrade significantly and provide overly-confident, wrong classification predictions, particularly for out-of-distribution (OOD) inputs. Conditional language models (CLMs) are predominantly trained to classify the next token in an output sequence, and may suffer even worse degradation on OOD inputs as the prediction is done auto-regressively over many steps. Furthermore, the space of potential low-quality outputs is larger as arbitrary text can be generated and it is important to know when to trust the generated output. We present a highly accurate and lightweight OOD detection method for CLMs, and demonstrate its effectiveness on abstractive summarization and translation. We also show how our method can be used under the common and realistic setting of distribution shift for selective generation (analogous to selective prediction for classification) of high-quality outputs, while automatically abstaining from low-quality ones, enabling safer deployment of generative language models.

Causal discovery and causal reasoning are classically treated as separate and consecutive tasks: one first infers the causal graph, and then uses it to estimate causal effects of interventions. However, such a two-stage approach is uneconomical, especially in terms of actively collected interventional data, since the causal query of interest may not require a fully-specified causal model. From a Bayesian perspective, it is also unnatural, since a causal query (e.g., the causal graph or some causal effect) can be viewed as a latent quantity subject to posterior inference -- other unobserved quantities that are not of direct interest (e.g., the full causal model) ought to be marginalized out in this process and contribute to our epistemic uncertainty. In this work, we propose Active Bayesian Causal Inference (ABCI), a fully-Bayesian active learning framework for integrated causal discovery and reasoning, which jointly infers a posterior over causal models and queries of interest. In our approach to ABCI, we focus on the class of causally-sufficient, nonlinear additive noise models, which we model using Gaussian processes. We sequentially design experiments that are maximally informative about our target causal query, collect the corresponding interventional data, and update our beliefs to choose the next experiment. Through simulations, we demonstrate that our approach is more data-efficient than several baselines that only focus on learning the full causal graph. This allows us to accurately learn downstream causal queries from fewer samples while providing well-calibrated uncertainty estimates for the quantities of interest.

The aim of this work is to develop a fully-distributed algorithmic framework for training graph convolutional networks (GCNs). The proposed method is able to exploit the meaningful relational structure of the input data, which are collected by a set of agents that communicate over a sparse network topology. After formulating the centralized GCN training problem, we first show how to make inference in a distributed scenario where the underlying data graph is split among different agents. Then, we propose a distributed gradient descent procedure to solve the GCN training problem. The resulting model distributes computation along three lines: during inference, during back-propagation, and during optimization. Convergence to stationary solutions of the GCN training problem is also established under mild conditions. Finally, we propose an optimization criterion to design the communication topology between agents in order to match with the graph describing data relationships. A wide set of numerical results validate our proposal. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work combining graph convolutional neural networks with distributed optimization.

With the rapid increase of large-scale, real-world datasets, it becomes critical to address the problem of long-tailed data distribution (i.e., a few classes account for most of the data, while most classes are under-represented). Existing solutions typically adopt class re-balancing strategies such as re-sampling and re-weighting based on the number of observations for each class. In this work, we argue that as the number of samples increases, the additional benefit of a newly added data point will diminish. We introduce a novel theoretical framework to measure data overlap by associating with each sample a small neighboring region rather than a single point. The effective number of samples is defined as the volume of samples and can be calculated by a simple formula $(1-\beta^{n})/(1-\beta)$, where $n$ is the number of samples and $\beta \in [0,1)$ is a hyperparameter. We design a re-weighting scheme that uses the effective number of samples for each class to re-balance the loss, thereby yielding a class-balanced loss. Comprehensive experiments are conducted on artificially induced long-tailed CIFAR datasets and large-scale datasets including ImageNet and iNaturalist. Our results show that when trained with the proposed class-balanced loss, the network is able to achieve significant performance gains on long-tailed datasets.