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We study incentive designs for a class of stochastic Stackelberg games with one leader and a large number of (finite as well as infinite population of) followers. We investigate whether the leader can craft a strategy under a dynamic information structure that induces a desired behavior among the followers. For the finite population setting, under sufficient conditions, we show that there exist symmetric incentive strategies for the leader that attain approximately optimal performance from the leader's viewpoint and lead to an approximate symmetric (pure) Nash best response among the followers. Driving the follower population to infinity, we arrive at the interesting result that in this infinite-population regime the leader cannot design a smooth "finite-energy" incentive strategy, namely, a mean-field limit for such games is not well-defined. As a way around this, we introduce a class of stochastic Stackelberg games with a leader, a major follower, and a finite or infinite population of minor followers, where the leader provides an incentive only for the major follower, who in turn influences the rest of the followers through her strategy. For this class of problems, we are able to establish the existence of an incentive strategy with finitely many minor followers. We also show that if the leader's strategy with finitely many minor followers converges as their population size grows, then the limit defines an incentive strategy for the corresponding mean-field Stackelberg game. Examples of quadratic Gaussian games are provided to illustrate both positive and negative results. In addition, as a byproduct of our analysis, we establish existence of a randomized incentive strategy for the class mean-field Stackelberg games, which in turn provides an approximation for an incentive strategy of the corresponding finite population Stackelberg game.

Purpose of Review: Negative controls are a powerful tool to detect and adjust for bias in epidemiological research. This paper introduces negative controls to a broader audience and provides guidance on principled design and causal analysis based on a formal negative control framework. Recent Findings: We review and summarize causal and statistical assumptions, practical strategies, and validation criteria that can be combined with subject matter knowledge to perform negative control analyses. We also review existing statistical methodologies for detection, reduction, and correction of confounding bias, and briefly discuss recent advances towards nonparametric identification of causal effects in a double negative control design. Summary: There is great potential for valid and accurate causal inference leveraging contemporary healthcare data in which negative controls are routinely available. Design and analysis of observational data leveraging negative controls is an area of growing interest in health and social sciences. Despite these developments, further effort is needed to disseminate these novel methods to ensure they are adopted by practicing epidemiologists.

This study demonstrates the existence of a testable condition for the identification of the causal effect of a treatment on an outcome in observational data, which relies on two sets of variables: observed covariates to be controlled for and a suspected instrument. Under a causal structure commonly found in empirical applications, the testable conditional independence of the suspected instrument and the outcome given the treatment and the covariates has two implications. First, the instrument is valid, i.e. it does not directly affect the outcome (other than through the treatment) and is unconfounded conditional on the covariates. Second, the treatment is unconfounded conditional on the covariates such that the treatment effect is identified. We suggest tests of this conditional independence based on machine learning methods that account for covariates in a data-driven way and investigate their asymptotic behavior and finite sample performance in a simulation study. We also apply our testing approach to evaluating the impact of fertility on female labor supply when using the sibling sex ratio of the first two children as supposed instrument, which by and large points to a violation of our testable implication for the moderate set of socio-economic covariates considered.

The deployment of the sensor nodes (SNs) always plays a decisive role in the system performance of wireless sensor networks (WSNs). In this work, we propose an optimal deployment method for practical heterogeneous WSNs which gives a deep insight into the trade-off between the reliability and deployment cost. Specifically, this work aims to provide the optimal deployment of SNs to maximize the coverage degree and connection degree, and meanwhile minimize the overall deployment cost. In addition, this work fully considers the heterogeneity of SNs (i.e. differentiated sensing range and deployment cost) and three-dimensional (3-D) deployment scenarios. This is a multi-objective optimization problem, non-convex, multimodal and NP-hard. To solve it, we develop a novel swarm-based multi-objective optimization algorithm, known as the competitive multi-objective marine predators algorithm (CMOMPA) whose performance is verified by comprehensive comparative experiments with ten other stateof-the-art multi-objective optimization algorithms. The computational results demonstrate that CMOMPA is superior to others in terms of convergence and accuracy and shows excellent performance on multimodal multiobjective optimization problems. Sufficient simulations are also conducted to evaluate the effectiveness of the CMOMPA based optimal SNs deployment method. The results show that the optimized deployment can balance the trade-off among deployment cost, sensing reliability and network reliability. The source code is available on //github.com/iNet-WZU/CMOMPA.

Historically used in settings where the outcome is rare or data collection is expensive, outcome-dependent sampling is relevant to many modern settings where data is readily available for a biased sample of the target population, such as public administrative data. Under outcome-dependent sampling, common effect measures such as the average risk difference and the average risk ratio are not identified, but the conditional odds ratio is. Aggregation of the conditional odds ratio is challenging since summary measures are generally not identified. Furthermore, the marginal odds ratio can be larger (or smaller) than all conditional odds ratios. This so-called non-collapsibility of the odds ratio is avoidable if we use an alternative aggregation to the standard arithmetic mean. We provide a new definition of collapsibility that makes this choice of aggregation method explicit, and we demonstrate that the odds ratio is collapsible under geometric aggregation. We describe how to partially identify, estimate, and do inference on the geometric odds ratio under outcome-dependent sampling. Our proposed estimator is based on the efficient influence function and therefore has doubly robust-style properties.

With its powerful capability to deal with graph data widely found in practical applications, graph neural networks (GNNs) have received significant research attention. However, as societies become increasingly concerned with data privacy, GNNs face the need to adapt to this new normal. This has led to the rapid development of federated graph neural networks (FedGNNs) research in recent years. Although promising, this interdisciplinary field is highly challenging for interested researchers to enter into. The lack of an insightful survey on this topic only exacerbates this problem. In this paper, we bridge this gap by offering a comprehensive survey of this emerging field. We propose a unique 3-tiered taxonomy of the FedGNNs literature to provide a clear view into how GNNs work in the context of Federated Learning (FL). It puts existing works into perspective by analyzing how graph data manifest themselves in FL settings, how GNN training is performed under different FL system architectures and degrees of graph data overlap across data silo, and how GNN aggregation is performed under various FL settings. Through discussions of the advantages and limitations of existing works, we envision future research directions that can help build more robust, dynamic, efficient, and interpretable FedGNNs.

This paper focuses on the expected difference in borrower's repayment when there is a change in the lender's credit decisions. Classical estimators overlook the confounding effects and hence the estimation error can be magnificent. As such, we propose another approach to construct the estimators such that the error can be greatly reduced. The proposed estimators are shown to be unbiased, consistent, and robust through a combination of theoretical analysis and numerical testing. Moreover, we compare the power of estimating the causal quantities between the classical estimators and the proposed estimators. The comparison is tested across a wide range of models, including linear regression models, tree-based models, and neural network-based models, under different simulated datasets that exhibit different levels of causality, different degrees of nonlinearity, and different distributional properties. Most importantly, we apply our approaches to a large observational dataset provided by a global technology firm that operates in both the e-commerce and the lending business. We find that the relative reduction of estimation error is strikingly substantial if the causal effects are accounted for correctly.

Relation prediction for knowledge graphs aims at predicting missing relationships between entities. Despite the importance of inductive relation prediction, most previous works are limited to a transductive setting and cannot process previously unseen entities. The recent proposed subgraph-based relation reasoning models provided alternatives to predict links from the subgraph structure surrounding a candidate triplet inductively. However, we observe that these methods often neglect the directed nature of the extracted subgraph and weaken the role of relation information in the subgraph modeling. As a result, they fail to effectively handle the asymmetric/anti-symmetric triplets and produce insufficient embeddings for the target triplets. To this end, we introduce a \textbf{C}\textbf{o}mmunicative \textbf{M}essage \textbf{P}assing neural network for \textbf{I}nductive re\textbf{L}ation r\textbf{E}asoning, \textbf{CoMPILE}, that reasons over local directed subgraph structures and has a vigorous inductive bias to process entity-independent semantic relations. In contrast to existing models, CoMPILE strengthens the message interactions between edges and entitles through a communicative kernel and enables a sufficient flow of relation information. Moreover, we demonstrate that CoMPILE can naturally handle asymmetric/anti-symmetric relations without the need for explosively increasing the number of model parameters by extracting the directed enclosing subgraphs. Extensive experiments show substantial performance gains in comparison to state-of-the-art methods on commonly used benchmark datasets with variant inductive settings.

Transfer learning aims at improving the performance of target learners on target domains by transferring the knowledge contained in different but related source domains. In this way, the dependence on a large number of target domain data can be reduced for constructing target learners. Due to the wide application prospects, transfer learning has become a popular and promising area in machine learning. Although there are already some valuable and impressive surveys on transfer learning, these surveys introduce approaches in a relatively isolated way and lack the recent advances in transfer learning. As the rapid expansion of the transfer learning area, it is both necessary and challenging to comprehensively review the relevant studies. This survey attempts to connect and systematize the existing transfer learning researches, as well as to summarize and interpret the mechanisms and the strategies in a comprehensive way, which may help readers have a better understanding of the current research status and ideas. Different from previous surveys, this survey paper reviews over forty representative transfer learning approaches from the perspectives of data and model. The applications of transfer learning are also briefly introduced. In order to show the performance of different transfer learning models, twenty representative transfer learning models are used for experiments. The models are performed on three different datasets, i.e., Amazon Reviews, Reuters-21578, and Office-31. And the experimental results demonstrate the importance of selecting appropriate transfer learning models for different applications in practice.