Explainability and uncertainty quantification are two pillars of trustable artificial intelligence. However, the reasoning behind uncertainty estimates is generally left unexplained. Identifying the drivers of uncertainty complements explanations of point predictions in recognizing model limitations and enhances trust in decisions and their communication. So far, explanations of uncertainties have been rarely studied. The few exceptions rely on Bayesian neural networks or technically intricate approaches, such as auxiliary generative models, thereby hindering their broad adoption. We present a simple approach to explain predictive aleatoric uncertainties. We estimate uncertainty as predictive variance by adapting a neural network with a Gaussian output distribution. Subsequently, we apply out-of-the-box explainers to the model's variance output. This approach can explain uncertainty influences more reliably than literature baselines, which we evaluate in a synthetic setting with a known data-generating process. We further adapt multiple metrics from conventional XAI research to uncertainty explanations. We quantify our findings with a nuanced benchmark analysis that includes real-world datasets. Finally, we apply our approach to an age regression model and discover reasonable sources of uncertainty. Overall, we explain uncertainty estimates with little modifications to the model architecture and demonstrate that our approach competes effectively with more intricate methods.
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Recent years have witnessed the prosperity of knowledge graph based recommendation system (KGRS), which enriches the representation of users, items, and entities by structural knowledge with striking improvement. Nevertheless, its unaffordable computational cost still limits researchers from exploring more sophisticated models. We observe that the bottleneck for training efficiency arises from the knowledge graph, which is plagued by the well-known issue of knowledge explosion. Recently, some works have attempted to slim the inflated KG via summarization techniques. However, these summarized nodes may ignore the collaborative signals and deviate from the facts that nodes in knowledge graph represent symbolic abstractions of entities from the real-world. To this end, in this paper, we propose a novel approach called KGTrimmer for knowledge graph pruning tailored for recommendation, to remove the unessential nodes while minimizing performance degradation. Specifically, we design an importance evaluator from a dual-view perspective. For the collective view, we embrace the idea of collective intelligence by extracting community consensus based on abundant collaborative signals, i.e. nodes are considered important if they attract attention of numerous users. For the holistic view, we learn a global mask to identify the valueless nodes from their inherent properties or overall popularity. Next, we build an end-to-end importance-aware graph neural network, which injects filtered knowledge to enhance the distillation of valuable user-item collaborative signals. Ultimately, we generate a pruned knowledge graph with lightweight, stable, and robust properties to facilitate the following-up recommendation task. Extensive experiments are conducted on three publicly available datasets to prove the effectiveness and generalization ability of KGTrimmer.
In observational studies of discrimination, the most common statistical approaches consider either the rate at which decisions are made (benchmark tests) or the success rate of those decisions (outcome tests). Both tests, however, have well-known statistical limitations, sometimes suggesting discrimination even when there is none. Despite the fallibility of the benchmark and outcome tests individually, here we prove a surprisingly strong statistical guarantee: under a common non-parametric assumption, at least one of the two tests must be correct; consequently, when both tests agree, they are guaranteed to yield correct conclusions. We present empirical evidence that the underlying assumption holds approximately in several important domains, including lending, education, and criminal justice -- and that our hybrid test is robust to the moderate violations of the assumption that we observe in practice. Applying this approach to 2.8 million police stops across California, we find evidence of widespread racial discrimination.
Reasoning, a crucial ability for complex problem-solving, plays a pivotal role in various real-world settings such as negotiation, medical diagnosis, and criminal investigation. It serves as a fundamental methodology in the field of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). With the ongoing development of foundation models, e.g., Large Language Models (LLMs), there is a growing interest in exploring their abilities in reasoning tasks. In this paper, we introduce seminal foundation models proposed or adaptable for reasoning, highlighting the latest advancements in various reasoning tasks, methods, and benchmarks. We then delve into the potential future directions behind the emergence of reasoning abilities within foundation models. We also discuss the relevance of multimodal learning, autonomous agents, and super alignment in the context of reasoning. By discussing these future research directions, we hope to inspire researchers in their exploration of this field, stimulate further advancements in reasoning with foundation models, and contribute to the development of AGI.
Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown excellent generalization capabilities that have led to the development of numerous models. These models propose various new architectures, tweaking existing architectures with refined training strategies, increasing context length, using high-quality training data, and increasing training time to outperform baselines. Analyzing new developments is crucial for identifying changes that enhance training stability and improve generalization in LLMs. This survey paper comprehensively analyses the LLMs architectures and their categorization, training strategies, training datasets, and performance evaluations and discusses future research directions. Moreover, the paper also discusses the basic building blocks and concepts behind LLMs, followed by a complete overview of LLMs, including their important features and functions. Finally, the paper summarizes significant findings from LLM research and consolidates essential architectural and training strategies for developing advanced LLMs. Given the continuous advancements in LLMs, we intend to regularly update this paper by incorporating new sections and featuring the latest LLM models.
Self-supervised learning, dubbed the dark matter of intelligence, is a promising path to advance machine learning. Yet, much like cooking, training SSL methods is a delicate art with a high barrier to entry. While many components are familiar, successfully training a SSL method involves a dizzying set of choices from the pretext tasks to training hyper-parameters. Our goal is to lower the barrier to entry into SSL research by laying the foundations and latest SSL recipes in the style of a cookbook. We hope to empower the curious researcher to navigate the terrain of methods, understand the role of the various knobs, and gain the know-how required to explore how delicious SSL can be.
The concept of causality plays an important role in human cognition . In the past few decades, causal inference has been well developed in many fields, such as computer science, medicine, economics, and education. With the advancement of deep learning techniques, it has been increasingly used in causal inference against counterfactual data. Typically, deep causal models map the characteristics of covariates to a representation space and then design various objective optimization functions to estimate counterfactual data unbiasedly based on the different optimization methods. This paper focuses on the survey of the deep causal models, and its core contributions are as follows: 1) we provide relevant metrics under multiple treatments and continuous-dose treatment; 2) we incorporate a comprehensive overview of deep causal models from both temporal development and method classification perspectives; 3) we assist a detailed and comprehensive classification and analysis of relevant datasets and source code.
We consider the problem of explaining the predictions of graph neural networks (GNNs), which otherwise are considered as black boxes. Existing methods invariably focus on explaining the importance of graph nodes or edges but ignore the substructures of graphs, which are more intuitive and human-intelligible. In this work, we propose a novel method, known as SubgraphX, to explain GNNs by identifying important subgraphs. Given a trained GNN model and an input graph, our SubgraphX explains its predictions by efficiently exploring different subgraphs with Monte Carlo tree search. To make the tree search more effective, we propose to use Shapley values as a measure of subgraph importance, which can also capture the interactions among different subgraphs. To expedite computations, we propose efficient approximation schemes to compute Shapley values for graph data. Our work represents the first attempt to explain GNNs via identifying subgraphs explicitly and directly. Experimental results show that our SubgraphX achieves significantly improved explanations, while keeping computations at a reasonable level.
Residual networks (ResNets) have displayed impressive results in pattern recognition and, recently, have garnered considerable theoretical interest due to a perceived link with neural ordinary differential equations (neural ODEs). This link relies on the convergence of network weights to a smooth function as the number of layers increases. We investigate the properties of weights trained by stochastic gradient descent and their scaling with network depth through detailed numerical experiments. We observe the existence of scaling regimes markedly different from those assumed in neural ODE literature. Depending on certain features of the network architecture, such as the smoothness of the activation function, one may obtain an alternative ODE limit, a stochastic differential equation or neither of these. These findings cast doubts on the validity of the neural ODE model as an adequate asymptotic description of deep ResNets and point to an alternative class of differential equations as a better description of the deep network limit.
Co-evolving time series appears in a multitude of applications such as environmental monitoring, financial analysis, and smart transportation. This paper aims to address the following challenges, including (C1) how to incorporate explicit relationship networks of the time series; (C2) how to model the implicit relationship of the temporal dynamics. We propose a novel model called Network of Tensor Time Series, which is comprised of two modules, including Tensor Graph Convolutional Network (TGCN) and Tensor Recurrent Neural Network (TRNN). TGCN tackles the first challenge by generalizing Graph Convolutional Network (GCN) for flat graphs to tensor graphs, which captures the synergy between multiple graphs associated with the tensors. TRNN leverages tensor decomposition to model the implicit relationships among co-evolving time series. The experimental results on five real-world datasets demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed method.
Multi-relation Question Answering is a challenging task, due to the requirement of elaborated analysis on questions and reasoning over multiple fact triples in knowledge base. In this paper, we present a novel model called Interpretable Reasoning Network that employs an interpretable, hop-by-hop reasoning process for question answering. The model dynamically decides which part of an input question should be analyzed at each hop; predicts a relation that corresponds to the current parsed results; utilizes the predicted relation to update the question representation and the state of the reasoning process; and then drives the next-hop reasoning. Experiments show that our model yields state-of-the-art results on two datasets. More interestingly, the model can offer traceable and observable intermediate predictions for reasoning analysis and failure diagnosis, thereby allowing manual manipulation in predicting the final answer.
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