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Given n experiment subjects with potentially heterogeneous covariates and two possible treatments, namely active treatment and control, this paper addresses the fundamental question of determining the optimal accuracy in estimating the treatment effect. Furthermore, we propose an experimental design that approaches this optimal accuracy, giving a (non-asymptotic) answer to this fundamental yet still open question. The methodological contribution is listed as following. First, we establish an idealized optimal estimator with minimal variance as benchmark, and then demonstrate that adaptive experiment is necessary to achieve near-optimal estimation accuracy. Secondly, by incorporating the concept of doubly robust method into sequential experimental design, we frame the optimal estimation problem as an online bandit learning problem, bridging the two fields of statistical estimation and bandit learning. Using tools and ideas from both bandit algorithm design and adaptive statistical estimation, we propose a general low switching adaptive experiment framework, which could be a generic research paradigm for a wide range of adaptive experimental design. Through novel lower bound techniques for non-i.i.d. data, we demonstrate the optimality of our proposed experiment. Numerical result indicates that the estimation accuracy approaches optimal with as few as two or three policy updates.

Neural decoding, the process of understanding how brain activity corresponds to different stimuli, has been a primary objective in cognitive sciences. Over the past three decades, advancements in functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging and machine learning have greatly improved our ability to map visual stimuli to brain activity, especially in the visual cortex. Concurrently, research has expanded into decoding more complex processes like language and memory across the whole brain, utilizing techniques to handle greater variability and improve signal accuracy. We argue that "seeing" involves more than just mapping visual stimuli onto the visual cortex; it engages the entire brain, as various emotions and cognitive states can emerge from observing different scenes. In this paper, we develop algorithms to enhance our understanding of visual processes by incorporating whole-brain activation maps while individuals are exposed to visual stimuli. We utilize large-scale fMRI encoders and Image generative models pre-trained on large public datasets, which are then fine-tuned through Image-fMRI contrastive learning. Our models hence can decode visual experience across the entire cerebral cortex, surpassing the traditional confines of the visual cortex. We first compare our method with state-of-the-art approaches to decoding visual processing and show improved predictive semantic accuracy by 43%. A network ablation analysis suggests that beyond the visual cortex, the default mode network contributes most to decoding stimuli, in line with the proposed role of this network in sense-making and semantic processing. Additionally, we implemented zero-shot imagination decoding on an extra validation dataset, achieving a p-value of 0.0206 for mapping the reconstructed images and ground-truth text stimuli, which substantiates the model's capability to capture semantic meanings across various scenarios.

Training neural networks on NP-complete problems typically demands very large amounts of training data and often needs to be coupled with computationally expensive symbolic verifiers to ensure output correctness. In this paper, we present NeuRes, a neuro-symbolic approach to address both challenges for propositional satisfiability, being the quintessential NP-complete problem. By combining certificate-driven training and expert iteration, our model learns better representations than models trained for classification only, with a much higher data efficiency -- requiring orders of magnitude less training data. NeuRes employs propositional resolution as a proof system to generate proofs of unsatisfiability and to accelerate the process of finding satisfying truth assignments, exploring both possibilities in parallel. To realize this, we propose an attention-based architecture that autoregressively selects pairs of clauses from a dynamic formula embedding to derive new clauses. Furthermore, we employ expert iteration whereby model-generated proofs progressively replace longer teacher proofs as the new ground truth. This enables our model to reduce a dataset of proofs generated by an advanced solver by ~32% after training on it with no extra guidance. This shows that NeuRes is not limited by the optimality of the teacher algorithm owing to its self-improving workflow. We show that our model achieves far better performance than NeuroSAT in terms of both correctly classified and proven instances.

Inverse weighting with an estimated propensity score is widely used by estimation methods in causal inference to adjust for confounding bias. However, directly inverting propensity score estimates can lead to instability, bias, and excessive variability due to large inverse weights, especially when treatment overlap is limited. In this work, we propose a post-hoc calibration algorithm for inverse propensity weights that generates well-calibrated, stabilized weights from user-supplied, cross-fitted propensity score estimates. Our approach employs a variant of isotonic regression with a loss function specifically tailored to the inverse propensity weights. Through theoretical analysis and empirical studies, we demonstrate that isotonic calibration improves the performance of doubly robust estimators of the average treatment effect.

In recent years, Solving partial differential equations has shifted the focus of traditional neural network studies from finite-dimensional Euclidean spaces to generalized functional spaces in research. A novel methodology is to learn an operator as a means of approximating the mapping between outputs. Currently, researchers have proposed a variety of operator architectures. Nevertheless, the majority of these architectures adopt an iterative update architecture, whereby a single operator is learned from the same function space. In practical physical science problems, the numerical solutions of partial differential equations are complex, and a serial single operator is unable to accurately approximate the intricate mapping between input and output. So, We propose a deep parallel operator model (DPNO) for efficiently and accurately solving partial differential equations. DPNO employs convolutional neural networks to extract local features and map data into distinct latent spaces. Designing a parallel block of double Fourier neural operators to solve the iterative error problem. DPNO approximates complex mappings between inputs and outputs by learning multiple operators in different potential spaces in parallel blocks. DPNO achieved the best performance on five of them, with an average improvement of 10.5\%, and ranked second on one dataset.

There is increasing evidence suggesting neural networks' sensitivity to distribution shifts, so that research on out-of-distribution (OOD) generalization comes into the spotlight. Nonetheless, current endeavors mostly focus on Euclidean data, and its formulation for graph-structured data is not clear and remains under-explored, given two-fold fundamental challenges: 1) the inter-connection among nodes in one graph, which induces non-IID generation of data points even under the same environment, and 2) the structural information in the input graph, which is also informative for prediction. In this paper, we formulate the OOD problem on graphs and develop a new invariant learning approach, Explore-to-Extrapolate Risk Minimization (EERM), that facilitates graph neural networks to leverage invariance principles for prediction. EERM resorts to multiple context explorers (specified as graph structure editers in our case) that are adversarially trained to maximize the variance of risks from multiple virtual environments. Such a design enables the model to extrapolate from a single observed environment which is the common case for node-level prediction. We prove the validity of our method by theoretically showing its guarantee of a valid OOD solution and further demonstrate its power on various real-world datasets for handling distribution shifts from artificial spurious features, cross-domain transfers and dynamic graph evolution.

Due to their increasing spread, confidence in neural network predictions became more and more important. However, basic neural networks do not deliver certainty estimates or suffer from over or under confidence. Many researchers have been working on understanding and quantifying uncertainty in a neural network's prediction. As a result, different types and sources of uncertainty have been identified and a variety of approaches to measure and quantify uncertainty in neural networks have been proposed. This work gives a comprehensive overview of uncertainty estimation in neural networks, reviews recent advances in the field, highlights current challenges, and identifies potential research opportunities. It is intended to give anyone interested in uncertainty estimation in neural networks a broad overview and introduction, without presupposing prior knowledge in this field. A comprehensive introduction to the most crucial sources of uncertainty is given and their separation into reducible model uncertainty and not reducible data uncertainty is presented. The modeling of these uncertainties based on deterministic neural networks, Bayesian neural networks, ensemble of neural networks, and test-time data augmentation approaches is introduced and different branches of these fields as well as the latest developments are discussed. For a practical application, we discuss different measures of uncertainty, approaches for the calibration of neural networks and give an overview of existing baselines and implementations. Different examples from the wide spectrum of challenges in different fields give an idea of the needs and challenges regarding uncertainties in practical applications. Additionally, the practical limitations of current methods for mission- and safety-critical real world applications are discussed and an outlook on the next steps towards a broader usage of such methods is given.

We consider the problem of explaining the predictions of graph neural networks (GNNs), which otherwise are considered as black boxes. Existing methods invariably focus on explaining the importance of graph nodes or edges but ignore the substructures of graphs, which are more intuitive and human-intelligible. In this work, we propose a novel method, known as SubgraphX, to explain GNNs by identifying important subgraphs. Given a trained GNN model and an input graph, our SubgraphX explains its predictions by efficiently exploring different subgraphs with Monte Carlo tree search. To make the tree search more effective, we propose to use Shapley values as a measure of subgraph importance, which can also capture the interactions among different subgraphs. To expedite computations, we propose efficient approximation schemes to compute Shapley values for graph data. Our work represents the first attempt to explain GNNs via identifying subgraphs explicitly and directly. Experimental results show that our SubgraphX achieves significantly improved explanations, while keeping computations at a reasonable level.

Recently, graph neural networks (GNNs) have revolutionized the field of graph representation learning through effectively learned node embeddings, and achieved state-of-the-art results in tasks such as node classification and link prediction. However, current GNN methods are inherently flat and do not learn hierarchical representations of graphs---a limitation that is especially problematic for the task of graph classification, where the goal is to predict the label associated with an entire graph. Here we propose DiffPool, a differentiable graph pooling module that can generate hierarchical representations of graphs and can be combined with various graph neural network architectures in an end-to-end fashion. DiffPool learns a differentiable soft cluster assignment for nodes at each layer of a deep GNN, mapping nodes to a set of clusters, which then form the coarsened input for the next GNN layer. Our experimental results show that combining existing GNN methods with DiffPool yields an average improvement of 5-10% accuracy on graph classification benchmarks, compared to all existing pooling approaches, achieving a new state-of-the-art on four out of five benchmark data sets.

The amount of publicly available biomedical literature has been growing rapidly in recent years, yet question answering systems still struggle to exploit the full potential of this source of data. In a preliminary processing step, many question answering systems rely on retrieval models for identifying relevant documents and passages. This paper proposes a weighted cosine distance retrieval scheme based on neural network word embeddings. Our experiments are based on publicly available data and tasks from the BioASQ biomedical question answering challenge and demonstrate significant performance gains over a wide range of state-of-the-art models.