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Fingerprints are key tools in climate change detection and attribution (D&A) that are used to determine whether changes in observations are different from internal climate variability (detection), and whether observed changes can be assigned to specific external drivers (attribution). We propose a direct D&A approach based on supervised learning to extract fingerprints that lead to robust predictions under relevant interventions on exogenous variables, i.e., climate drivers other than the target. We employ anchor regression, a distributionally-robust statistical learning method inspired by causal inference that extrapolates well to perturbed data under the interventions considered. The residuals from the prediction achieve either uncorrelatedness or mean independence with the exogenous variables, thus guaranteeing robustness. We define D&A as a unified hypothesis testing framework that relies on the same statistical model but uses different targets and test statistics. In the experiments, we first show that the CO2 forcing can be robustly predicted from temperature spatial patterns under strong interventions on the solar forcing. Second, we illustrate attribution to the greenhouse gases and aerosols while protecting against interventions on the aerosols and CO2 forcing, respectively. Our study shows that incorporating robustness constraints against relevant interventions may significantly benefit detection and attribution of climate change.

Charge dynamics play essential role in many practical applications such as semiconductors, electrochemical devices and transmembrane ion channels. A Maxwell-Amp\`{e}re Nernst-Planck (MANP) model that describes charge dynamics via concentrations and the electric displacement is able to take effects beyond mean-field approximations into account. To obtain physically faithful numerical solutions, we develop a structure-preserving numerical method for the MANP model whose solution has several physical properties of importance. By the Slotboom transform with entropic-mean approximations, a positivity preserving scheme with Scharfetter-Gummel fluxes is derived for the generalized Nernst-Planck equations. To deal with the curl-free constraint, the dielectric displacement from the Maxwell-Amp\`{e}re equation is further updated with a local relaxation algorithm of linear computational complexity. We prove that the proposed numerical method unconditionally preserves the mass conservation and the solution positivity at the discrete level, and satisfies the discrete energy dissipation law with a time-step restriction. Numerical experiments verify that our numerical method has expected accuracy and structure-preserving properties. Applications to ion transport with large convection, arising from boundary-layer electric field and Born solvation interactions, further demonstrate that the MANP formulation with the proposed numerical scheme has attractive performance and can effectively describe charge dynamics with large convection of high numerical cell P\'{e}clet numbers.

We investigate whether three types of post hoc model explanations--feature attribution, concept activation, and training point ranking--are effective for detecting a model's reliance on spurious signals in the training data. Specifically, we consider the scenario where the spurious signal to be detected is unknown, at test-time, to the user of the explanation method. We design an empirical methodology that uses semi-synthetic datasets along with pre-specified spurious artifacts to obtain models that verifiably rely on these spurious training signals. We then provide a suite of metrics that assess an explanation method's reliability for spurious signal detection under various conditions. We find that the post hoc explanation methods tested are ineffective when the spurious artifact is unknown at test-time especially for non-visible artifacts like a background blur. Further, we find that feature attribution methods are susceptible to erroneously indicating dependence on spurious signals even when the model being explained does not rely on spurious artifacts. This finding casts doubt on the utility of these approaches, in the hands of a practitioner, for detecting a model's reliance on spurious signals.

The mathematical approaches for modeling dynamic traffic can roughly be divided into two categories: discrete packet routing models and continuous flow over time models. Despite very vital research activities on models in both categories, the connection between these approaches was poorly understood so far. In this work we build this connection by specifying a (competitive) packet routing model, which is discrete in terms of flow and time, and by proving its convergence to the intensively studied model of flows over time with deterministic queuing. More precisely, we prove that the limit of the convergence process, when decreasing the packet size and time step length in the packet routing model, constitutes a flow over time with multiple commodities. In addition, we show that the convergence result implies the existence of approximate equilibria in the competitive version of the packet routing model. This is of significant interest as exact pure Nash equilibria, similar to almost all other competitive models, cannot be guaranteed in the multi-commodity setting. Moreover, the introduced packet routing model with deterministic queuing is very application-oriented as it is based on the network loading module of the agent-based transport simulation MATSim. As the present work is the first mathematical formalization of this simulation, it provides a theoretical foundation and an environment for provable mathematical statements for MATSim.

Deep neural network (DNN) classifiers are often overconfident, producing miscalibrated class probabilities. In high-risk applications like healthcare, practitioners require $\textit{fully calibrated}$ probability predictions for decision-making. That is, conditioned on the prediction $\textit{vector}$, $\textit{every}$ class' probability should be close to the predicted value. Most existing calibration methods either lack theoretical guarantees for producing calibrated outputs, reduce classification accuracy in the process, or only calibrate the predicted class. This paper proposes a new Kernel-based calibration method called KCal. Unlike existing calibration procedures, KCal does not operate directly on the logits or softmax outputs of the DNN. Instead, KCal learns a metric space on the penultimate-layer latent embedding and generates predictions using kernel density estimates on a calibration set. We first analyze KCal theoretically, showing that it enjoys a provable $\textit{full}$ calibration guarantee. Then, through extensive experiments across a variety of datasets, we show that KCal consistently outperforms baselines as measured by the calibration error and by proper scoring rules like the Brier Score.

Autonomous Micro Aerial Vehicles are deployed for a variety tasks including surveillance and monitoring. Perching and staring allow the vehicle to monitor targets without flying, saving battery power and increasing the overall mission time without the need to frequently replace batteries. This paper addresses the Active Visual Perching (AVP) control problem to autonomously perch on inclined surfaces up to $90^\circ$. Our approach generates dynamically feasible trajectories to navigate and perch on a desired target location, while taking into account actuator and Field of View (FoV) constraints. By replanning in mid-flight, we take advantage of more accurate target localization increasing the perching maneuver's robustness to target localization or control errors. We leverage the Karush-Kuhn-Tucker (KKT) conditions to identify the compatibility between planning objectives and the visual sensing constraint during the planned maneuver. Furthermore, we experimentally identify the corresponding boundary conditions that maximizes the spatio-temporal target visibility during the perching maneuver. The proposed approach works on-board in real-time with significant computational constraints relying exclusively on cameras and an Inertial Measurement Unit (IMU). Experimental results validate the proposed approach and shows the higher success rate as well as increased target interception precision and accuracy with respect to a one-shot planning approach, while still retaining aggressive capabilities with flight envelopes that include large excursions from the hover position on inclined surfaces up to 90$^\circ$, angular speeds up to 750~deg/s, and accelerations up to 10~m/s$^2$.

Prototype-based interpretability methods provide intuitive explanations of model prediction by comparing samples to a reference set of memorized exemplars or typical representatives in terms of similarity. In the field of sequential data modeling, similarity calculations of prototypes are usually based on encoded representation vectors. However, due to highly recursive functions, there is usually a non-negligible disparity between the prototype-based explanations and the original input. In this work, we propose a Self-Explaining Selective Model (SESM) that uses a linear combination of prototypical concepts to explain its own predictions. The model employs the idea of case-based reasoning by selecting sub-sequences of the input that mostly activate different concepts as prototypical parts, which users can compare to sub-sequences selected from different example inputs to understand model decisions. For better interpretability, we design multiple constraints including diversity, stability, and locality as training objectives. Extensive experiments in different domains demonstrate that our method exhibits promising interpretability and competitive accuracy.

Forecasting has always been at the forefront of decision making and planning. The uncertainty that surrounds the future is both exciting and challenging, with individuals and organisations seeking to minimise risks and maximise utilities. The large number of forecasting applications calls for a diverse set of forecasting methods to tackle real-life challenges. This article provides a non-systematic review of the theory and the practice of forecasting. We provide an overview of a wide range of theoretical, state-of-the-art models, methods, principles, and approaches to prepare, produce, organise, and evaluate forecasts. We then demonstrate how such theoretical concepts are applied in a variety of real-life contexts. We do not claim that this review is an exhaustive list of methods and applications. However, we wish that our encyclopedic presentation will offer a point of reference for the rich work that has been undertaken over the last decades, with some key insights for the future of forecasting theory and practice. Given its encyclopedic nature, the intended mode of reading is non-linear. We offer cross-references to allow the readers to navigate through the various topics. We complement the theoretical concepts and applications covered by large lists of free or open-source software implementations and publicly-available databases.

Unsupervised domain adaptation has recently emerged as an effective paradigm for generalizing deep neural networks to new target domains. However, there is still enormous potential to be tapped to reach the fully supervised performance. In this paper, we present a novel active learning strategy to assist knowledge transfer in the target domain, dubbed active domain adaptation. We start from an observation that energy-based models exhibit free energy biases when training (source) and test (target) data come from different distributions. Inspired by this inherent mechanism, we empirically reveal that a simple yet efficient energy-based sampling strategy sheds light on selecting the most valuable target samples than existing approaches requiring particular architectures or computation of the distances. Our algorithm, Energy-based Active Domain Adaptation (EADA), queries groups of targe data that incorporate both domain characteristic and instance uncertainty into every selection round. Meanwhile, by aligning the free energy of target data compact around the source domain via a regularization term, domain gap can be implicitly diminished. Through extensive experiments, we show that EADA surpasses state-of-the-art methods on well-known challenging benchmarks with substantial improvements, making it a useful option in the open world. Code is available at //github.com/BIT-DA/EADA.

The canonical approach to video-and-language learning (e.g., video question answering) dictates a neural model to learn from offline-extracted dense video features from vision models and text features from language models. These feature extractors are trained independently and usually on tasks different from the target domains, rendering these fixed features sub-optimal for downstream tasks. Moreover, due to the high computational overload of dense video features, it is often difficult (or infeasible) to plug feature extractors directly into existing approaches for easy finetuning. To provide a remedy to this dilemma, we propose a generic framework ClipBERT that enables affordable end-to-end learning for video-and-language tasks, by employing sparse sampling, where only a single or a few sparsely sampled short clips from a video are used at each training step. Experiments on text-to-video retrieval and video question answering on six datasets demonstrate that ClipBERT outperforms (or is on par with) existing methods that exploit full-length videos, suggesting that end-to-end learning with just a few sparsely sampled clips is often more accurate than using densely extracted offline features from full-length videos, proving the proverbial less-is-more principle. Videos in the datasets are from considerably different domains and lengths, ranging from 3-second generic domain GIF videos to 180-second YouTube human activity videos, showing the generalization ability of our approach. Comprehensive ablation studies and thorough analyses are provided to dissect what factors lead to this success. Our code is publicly available at //github.com/jayleicn/ClipBERT