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Multiple hypothesis testing has been widely applied to problems dealing with high-dimensional data, e.g., selecting significant variables and controlling the selection error rate. The most prevailing measure of error rate used in the multiple hypothesis testing is the false discovery rate (FDR). In recent years, local false discovery rate (fdr) has drawn much attention, due to its advantage of accessing the confidence of individual hypothesis. However, most methods estimate fdr through p-values or statistics with known null distributions, which are sometimes not available or reliable. Adopting the innovative methodology of competition-based procedures, e.g., knockoff filter, this paper proposes a new approach, named TDfdr, to local false discovery rate estimation, which is free of the p-values or known null distributions. Simulation results demonstrate that TDfdr can accurately estimate the fdr with two competition-based procedures. In real data analysis, the power of TDfdr on variable selection is verified on two biological datasets.

We consider a high-dimensional mean estimation problem over a binary hidden Markov model, which illuminates the interplay between memory in data, sample size, dimension, and signal strength in statistical inference. In this model, an estimator observes $n$ samples of a $d$-dimensional parameter vector $\theta_{*}\in\mathbb{R}^{d}$, multiplied by a random sign $ S_i $ ($1\le i\le n$), and corrupted by isotropic standard Gaussian noise. The sequence of signs $\{S_{i}\}_{i\in[n]}\in\{-1,1\}^{n}$ is drawn from a stationary homogeneous Markov chain with flip probability $\delta\in[0,1/2]$. As $\delta$ varies, this model smoothly interpolates two well-studied models: the Gaussian Location Model for which $\delta=0$ and the Gaussian Mixture Model for which $\delta=1/2$. Assuming that the estimator knows $\delta$, we establish a nearly minimax optimal (up to logarithmic factors) estimation error rate, as a function of $\|\theta_{*}\|,\delta,d,n$. We then provide an upper bound to the case of estimating $\delta$, assuming a (possibly inaccurate) knowledge of $\theta_{*}$. The bound is proved to be tight when $\theta_{*}$ is an accurately known constant. These results are then combined to an algorithm which estimates $\theta_{*}$ with $\delta$ unknown a priori, and theoretical guarantees on its error are stated.

The availability of massive image databases resulted in the development of scalable machine learning methods such as convolutional neural network (CNNs) filtering and processing these data. While the very recent theoretical work on CNNs focuses on standard nonparametric denoising problems, the variability in image classification datasets does, however, not originate from additive noise but from variation of the shape and other characteristics of the same object across different images. To address this problem, we consider a simple supervised classification problem for object detection on grayscale images. While from the function estimation point of view, every pixel is a variable and large images lead to high-dimensional function recovery tasks suffering from the curse of dimensionality, increasing the number of pixels in our image deformation model enhances the image resolution and makes the object classification problem easier. We propose and theoretically analyze two different procedures. The first method estimates the image deformation by support alignment. Under a minimal separation condition, it is shown that perfect classification is possible. The second method fits a CNN to the data. We derive a rate for the misclassification error depending on the sample size and the number of pixels. Both classifiers are empirically compared on images generated from the MNIST handwritten digit database. The obtained results corroborate the theoretical findings.

Causal discovery and causal reasoning are classically treated as separate and consecutive tasks: one first infers the causal graph, and then uses it to estimate causal effects of interventions. However, such a two-stage approach is uneconomical, especially in terms of actively collected interventional data, since the causal query of interest may not require a fully-specified causal model. From a Bayesian perspective, it is also unnatural, since a causal query (e.g., the causal graph or some causal effect) can be viewed as a latent quantity subject to posterior inference -- other unobserved quantities that are not of direct interest (e.g., the full causal model) ought to be marginalized out in this process and contribute to our epistemic uncertainty. In this work, we propose Active Bayesian Causal Inference (ABCI), a fully-Bayesian active learning framework for integrated causal discovery and reasoning, which jointly infers a posterior over causal models and queries of interest. In our approach to ABCI, we focus on the class of causally-sufficient, nonlinear additive noise models, which we model using Gaussian processes. We sequentially design experiments that are maximally informative about our target causal query, collect the corresponding interventional data, and update our beliefs to choose the next experiment. Through simulations, we demonstrate that our approach is more data-efficient than several baselines that only focus on learning the full causal graph. This allows us to accurately learn downstream causal queries from fewer samples while providing well-calibrated uncertainty estimates for the quantities of interest.

We study stochastic gradient descent for solving conditional stochastic optimization problems, in which an objective to be minimized is given by a parametric nested expectation with an outer expectation taken with respect to one random variable and an inner conditional expectation with respect to the other random variable. The gradient of such a parametric nested expectation is again expressed as a nested expectation, which makes it hard for the standard nested Monte Carlo estimator to be unbiased. In this paper, we show under some conditions that a multilevel Monte Carlo gradient estimator is unbiased and has finite variance and finite expected computational cost, so that the standard theory from stochastic optimization for a parametric (non-nested) expectation directly applies. We also discuss a special case for which yet another unbiased gradient estimator with finite variance and cost can be constructed.

The synthetic control method has become a widely popular tool to estimate causal effects with observational data. Despite this, inference for synthetic control methods remains challenging. Often, inferential results rely on linear factor model data generating processes. In this paper, we characterize the conditions on the factor model primitives (the factor loadings) for which the statistical risk minimizers are synthetic controls (in the simplex). Then, we propose a Bayesian alternative to the synthetic control method that preserves the main features of the standard method and provides a new way of doing valid inference. We explore a Bernstein-von Mises style result to link our Bayesian inference to the frequentist inference. For linear factor model frameworks we show that a maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) of the synthetic control weights can consistently estimate the predictive function of the potential outcomes for the treated unit and that our Bayes estimator is asymptotically close to the MLE in the total variation sense. Through simulations, we show that there is convergence between the Bayes and frequentist approach even in sparse settings. Finally, we apply the method to re-visit the study of the economic costs of the German re-unification. The Bayesian synthetic control method is available in the bsynth R-package.

Bayesian optimization (BO) is a sample-efficient approach for tuning design parameters to optimize expensive-to-evaluate, black-box performance metrics. In many manufacturing processes, the design parameters are subject to random input noise, resulting in a product that is often less performant than expected. Although BO methods have been proposed for optimizing a single objective under input noise, no existing method addresses the practical scenario where there are multiple objectives that are sensitive to input perturbations. In this work, we propose the first multi-objective BO method that is robust to input noise. We formalize our goal as optimizing the multivariate value-at-risk (MVaR), a risk measure of the uncertain objectives. Since directly optimizing MVaR is computationally infeasible in many settings, we propose a scalable, theoretically-grounded approach for optimizing MVaR using random scalarizations. Empirically, we find that our approach significantly outperforms alternative methods and efficiently identifies optimal robust designs that will satisfy specifications across multiple metrics with high probability.

Gradient based meta-learning methods are prone to overfit on the meta-training set, and this behaviour is more prominent with large and complex networks. Moreover, large networks restrict the application of meta-learning models on low-power edge devices. While choosing smaller networks avoid these issues to a certain extent, it affects the overall generalization leading to reduced performance. Clearly, there is an approximately optimal choice of network architecture that is best suited for every meta-learning problem, however, identifying it beforehand is not straightforward. In this paper, we present MetaDOCK, a task-specific dynamic kernel selection strategy for designing compressed CNN models that generalize well on unseen tasks in meta-learning. Our method is based on the hypothesis that for a given set of similar tasks, not all kernels of the network are needed by each individual task. Rather, each task uses only a fraction of the kernels, and the selection of the kernels per task can be learnt dynamically as a part of the inner update steps. MetaDOCK compresses the meta-model as well as the task-specific inner models, thus providing significant reduction in model size for each task, and through constraining the number of active kernels for every task, it implicitly mitigates the issue of meta-overfitting. We show that for the same inference budget, pruned versions of large CNN models obtained using our approach consistently outperform the conventional choices of CNN models. MetaDOCK couples well with popular meta-learning approaches such as iMAML. The efficacy of our method is validated on CIFAR-fs and mini-ImageNet datasets, and we have observed that our approach can provide improvements in model accuracy of up to 2% on standard meta-learning benchmark, while reducing the model size by more than 75%.

Hypothesis testing of random forest (RF) variable importance measures (VIMP) remains the subject of ongoing research. Among recent developments, heuristic approaches to parametric testing have been proposed whose distributional assumptions are based on empirical evidence. Other formal tests under regularity conditions were derived analytically. However, these approaches can be computationally expensive or even practically infeasible. This problem also occurs with non-parametric permutation tests, which are, however, distribution-free and can generically be applied to any type of RF and VIMP. Embracing this advantage, it is proposed here to use sequential permutation tests and sequential p-value estimation to reduce the high computational costs associated with conventional permutation tests. The popular and widely used permutation VIMP serves as a practical and relevant application example. The results of simulation studies confirm that the theoretical properties of the sequential tests apply, that is, the type-I error probability is controlled at a nominal level and a high power is maintained with considerably fewer permutations needed in comparison to conventional permutation testing. The numerical stability of the methods is investigated in two additional application studies. In summary, theoretically sound sequential permutation testing of VIMP is possible at greatly reduced computational costs. Recommendations for application are given. A respective implementation is provided through the accompanying R package $rfvimptest$. The approach can also be easily applied to any kind of prediction model.

High-dimensional Partial Differential Equations (PDEs) are a popular mathematical modelling tool, with applications ranging from finance to computational chemistry. However, standard numerical techniques for solving these PDEs are typically affected by the curse of dimensionality. In this work, we tackle this challenge while focusing on stationary diffusion equations defined over a high-dimensional domain with periodic boundary conditions. Inspired by recent progress in sparse function approximation in high dimensions, we propose a new method called compressive Fourier collocation. Combining ideas from compressive sensing and spectral collocation, our method replaces the use of structured collocation grids with Monte Carlo sampling and employs sparse recovery techniques, such as orthogonal matching pursuit and $\ell^1$ minimization, to approximate the Fourier coefficients of the PDE solution. We conduct a rigorous theoretical analysis showing that the approximation error of the proposed method is comparable with the best $s$-term approximation (with respect to the Fourier basis) to the solution. Using the recently introduced framework of random sampling in bounded Riesz systems, our analysis shows that the compressive Fourier collocation method mitigates the curse of dimensionality with respect to the number of collocation points under sufficient conditions on the regularity of the diffusion coefficient. We also present numerical experiments that illustrate the accuracy and stability of the method for the approximation of sparse and compressible solutions.