Quantile regression is a powerful data analysis tool that accommodates heterogeneous covariate-response relationships. We find that by coupling the asymmetric Laplace working likelihood with appropriate shrinkage priors, we can deliver posterior inference that automatically adapts to possible sparsity in quantile regression analysis. After a suitable adjustment on the posterior variance, the posterior inference provides asymptotically valid inference under heterogeneity. Furthermore, the proposed approach leads to oracle asymptotic efficiency for the active (nonzero) quantile regression coefficients and super-efficiency for the non-active ones. By avoiding the need to pursue dichotomous variable selection, the Bayesian computational framework demonstrates desirable inference stability with respect to tuning parameter selection. Our work helps to uncloak the value of Bayesian computational methods in frequentist inference for quantile regression.
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This paper proposes a general two directional simultaneous inference (TOSI) framework for high-dimensional models with a manifest variable or latent variable structure, for example, high-dimensional mean models, high-dimensional sparse regression models, and high-dimensional latent factors models. TOSI performs simultaneous inference on a set of parameters from two directions, one to test whether the assumed zero parameters indeed are zeros and one to test whether exist zeros in the parameter set of nonzeros. As a result, we can exactly identify whether the parameters are zeros, thereby keeping the data structure fully and parsimoniously expressed. We theoretically prove that the proposed TOSI method asymptotically controls the Type I error at the prespecified significance level and that the testing power converges to one. Simulations are conducted to examine the performance of the proposed method in finite sample situations and two real datasets are analyzed. The results show that the TOSI method is more predictive and has more interpretable estimators than existing methods.
Variance estimation is important for statistical inference. It becomes non-trivial when observations are masked by serial dependence structures and time-varying mean structures. Existing methods either ignore or sub-optimally handle these nuisance structures. This paper develops a general framework for the estimation of the long-run variance for time series with non-constant means. The building blocks are difference statistics. The proposed class of estimators is general enough to cover many existing estimators. Necessary and sufficient conditions for consistency are investigated. The first asymptotically optimal estimator is derived. Our proposed estimator is theoretically proven to be invariant to arbitrary mean structures, which may include trends and a possibly divergent number of discontinuities.
Data integration has become more challenging with the emerging availability of multiple data sources. This paper considers Bayesian quantile regression estimation when the key covariate is not directly observed, but the unobserved covariate has multiple proxies. In a unified estimation procedure, the proposed method incorporates these multiple proxies, which have various relationships with the unobserved covariate. The proposed approach allows the inference of both the quantile function and unobserved covariate. Moreover, it requires no linearity of the quantile function or parametric assumptions on the regression error distribution and simultaneously accommodates both linear and nonlinear proxies. The simulation studies show that this methodology successfully integrates multiple proxies and reveals the quantile relationship for a wide range of nonlinear data. The proposed method is applied to the administrative data obtained from the Survey of Household Finances and Living Conditions provided by Statistics Korea. The proposed Bayesian quantile regression is implemented to specify the relationship between assets and salary income in the presence of multiple income records.
We revisit a model for time-varying linear regression that assumes the unknown parameters evolve according to a linear dynamical system. Counterintuitively, we show that when the underlying dynamics are stable the parameters of this model can be estimated from data by combining just two ordinary least squares estimates. We offer a finite sample guarantee on the estimation error of our method and discuss certain advantages it has over Expectation-Maximization (EM), which is the main approach proposed by prior work.
We introduce a nonparametric graphical model for discrete node variables based on additive conditional independence. Additive conditional independence is a three way statistical relation that shares similar properties with conditional independence by satisfying the semi-graphoid axioms. Based on this relation we build an additive graphical model for discrete variables that does not suffer from the restriction of a parametric model such as the Ising model. We develop an estimator of the new graphical model via the penalized estimation of the discrete version of the additive precision operator and establish the consistency of the estimator under the ultrahigh-dimensional setting. Along with these methodological developments, we also exploit the properties of discrete random variables to uncover a deeper relation between additive conditional independence and conditional independence than previously known. The new graphical model reduces to a conditional independence graphical model under certain sparsity conditions. We conduct simulation experiments and analysis of an HIV antiretroviral therapy data set to compare the new method with existing ones.
Motivated by many interesting real-world applications in logistics and online advertising, we consider an online allocation problem subject to lower and upper resource constraints, where the requests arrive sequentially, sampled i.i.d. from an unknown distribution, and we need to promptly make a decision given limited resources and lower bounds requirements. First, with knowledge of the measure of feasibility, i.e., $\alpha$, we propose a new algorithm that obtains $1-O(\frac{\epsilon}{\alpha-\epsilon})$ -competitive ratio for the offline problems that know the entire requests ahead of time. Inspired by the previous studies, this algorithm adopts an innovative technique to dynamically update a threshold price vector for making decisions. Moreover, an optimization method to estimate the optimal measure of feasibility is proposed with theoretical guarantee at the end of this paper. Based on this method, if we tolerate slight violation of the lower bounds constraints with parameter $\eta$, the proposed algorithm is naturally extended to the settings without strong feasible assumption, which cover the significantly unexplored infeasible scenarios.
Modern-day problems in statistics often face the challenge of exploring and analyzing complex non-Euclidean object data that do not conform to vector space structures or operations. Examples of such data objects include covariance matrices, graph Laplacians of networks, and univariate probability distribution functions. In the current contribution a new concurrent regression model is proposed to characterize the time-varying relation between an object in a general metric space (as a response) and a vector in $\reals^p$ (as a predictor), where concepts from Fr\'echet regression is employed. Concurrent regression has been a well-developed area of research for Euclidean predictors and responses, with many important applications for longitudinal studies and functional data. However, there is no such model available so far for general object data as responses. We develop generalized versions of both global least squares regression and locally weighted least squares smoothing in the context of concurrent regression for responses that are situated in general metric spaces and propose estimators that can accommodate sparse and/or irregular designs. Consistency results are demonstrated for sample estimates of appropriate population targets along with the corresponding rates of convergence. The proposed models are illustrated with human mortality data and resting state functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging data (fMRI) as responses.
Influence maximization is the task of selecting a small number of seed nodes in a social network to maximize the spread of the influence from these seeds, and it has been widely investigated in the past two decades. In the canonical setting, the whole social network as well as its diffusion parameters is given as input. In this paper, we consider the more realistic sampling setting where the network is unknown and we only have a set of passively observed cascades that record the set of activated nodes at each diffusion step. We study the task of influence maximization from these cascade samples (IMS), and present constant approximation algorithms for this task under mild conditions on the seed set distribution. To achieve the optimization goal, we also provide a novel solution to the network inference problem, that is, learning diffusion parameters and the network structure from the cascade data. Comparing with prior solutions, our network inference algorithm requires weaker assumptions and does not rely on maximum-likelihood estimation and convex programming. Our IMS algorithms enhance the learning-and-then-optimization approach by allowing a constant approximation ratio even when the diffusion parameters are hard to learn, and we do not need any assumption related to the network structure or diffusion parameters.
Contextual multi-armed bandit (MAB) achieves cutting-edge performance on a variety of problems. When it comes to real-world scenarios such as recommendation system and online advertising, however, it is essential to consider the resource consumption of exploration. In practice, there is typically non-zero cost associated with executing a recommendation (arm) in the environment, and hence, the policy should be learned with a fixed exploration cost constraint. It is challenging to learn a global optimal policy directly, since it is a NP-hard problem and significantly complicates the exploration and exploitation trade-off of bandit algorithms. Existing approaches focus on solving the problems by adopting the greedy policy which estimates the expected rewards and costs and uses a greedy selection based on each arm's expected reward/cost ratio using historical observation until the exploration resource is exhausted. However, existing methods are hard to extend to infinite time horizon, since the learning process will be terminated when there is no more resource. In this paper, we propose a hierarchical adaptive contextual bandit method (HATCH) to conduct the policy learning of contextual bandits with a budget constraint. HATCH adopts an adaptive method to allocate the exploration resource based on the remaining resource/time and the estimation of reward distribution among different user contexts. In addition, we utilize full of contextual feature information to find the best personalized recommendation. Finally, in order to prove the theoretical guarantee, we present a regret bound analysis and prove that HATCH achieves a regret bound as low as $O(\sqrt{T})$. The experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed method on both synthetic data sets and the real-world applications.
Topic models have been widely explored as probabilistic generative models of documents. Traditional inference methods have sought closed-form derivations for updating the models, however as the expressiveness of these models grows, so does the difficulty of performing fast and accurate inference over their parameters. This paper presents alternative neural approaches to topic modelling by providing parameterisable distributions over topics which permit training by backpropagation in the framework of neural variational inference. In addition, with the help of a stick-breaking construction, we propose a recurrent network that is able to discover a notionally unbounded number of topics, analogous to Bayesian non-parametric topic models. Experimental results on the MXM Song Lyrics, 20NewsGroups and Reuters News datasets demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of these neural topic models.
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