Detecting change-points in data is challenging because of the range of possible types of change and types of behaviour of data when there is no change. Statistically efficient methods for detecting a change will depend on both of these features, and it can be difficult for a practitioner to develop an appropriate detection method for their application of interest. We show how to automatically generate new offline detection methods based on training a neural network. Our approach is motivated by many existing tests for the presence of a change-point being representable by a simple neural network, and thus a neural network trained with sufficient data should have performance at least as good as these methods. We present theory that quantifies the error rate for such an approach, and how it depends on the amount of training data. Empirical results show that, even with limited training data, its performance is competitive with the standard CUSUM-based classifier for detecting a change in mean when the noise is independent and Gaussian, and can substantially outperform it in the presence of auto-correlated or heavy-tailed noise. Our method also shows strong results in detecting and localising changes in activity based on accelerometer data.
Top-$k$ frequent items detection is a fundamental task in data stream mining. Many promising solutions are proposed to improve memory efficiency while still maintaining high accuracy for detecting the Top-$k$ items. Despite the memory efficiency concern, the users could suffer from privacy loss if participating in the task without proper protection, since their contributed local data streams may continually leak sensitive individual information. However, most existing works solely focus on addressing either the memory-efficiency problem or the privacy concerns but seldom jointly, which cannot achieve a satisfactory tradeoff between memory efficiency, privacy protection, and detection accuracy. In this paper, we present a novel framework HG-LDP to achieve accurate Top-$k$ item detection at bounded memory expense, while providing rigorous local differential privacy (LDP) protection. Specifically, we identify two key challenges naturally arising in the task, which reveal that directly applying existing LDP techniques will lead to an inferior ``accuracy-privacy-memory efficiency'' tradeoff. Therefore, we instantiate three advanced schemes under the framework by designing novel LDP randomization methods, which address the hurdles caused by the large size of the item domain and by the limited space of the memory. We conduct comprehensive experiments on both synthetic and real-world datasets to show that the proposed advanced schemes achieve a superior ``accuracy-privacy-memory efficiency'' tradeoff, saving $2300\times$ memory over baseline methods when the item domain size is $41,270$. Our code is open-sourced via the link.
The problem of quickest change detection in a sequence of independent observations is considered. The pre-change distribution is assumed to be known, while the post-change distribution is unknown. Two tests based on post-change density estimation are developed for this problem, the window-limited non-parametric generalized likelihood ratio (NGLR) CuSum test and the non-parametric window-limited adaptive (NWLA) CuSum test. Both tests do not assume any knowledge of the post-change distribution, except that the post-change density satisfies certain smoothness conditions that allows for efficient non-parametric estimation. Also, they do not require any pre-collected post-change training samples. Under certain convergence conditions on the density estimator, it is shown that both tests are first-order asymptotically optimal, as the false alarm rate goes to zero. The analysis is validated through numerical results, where both tests are compared with baseline tests that have distributional knowledge.
Change-point models deal with ordered data sequences. Their primary goal is to infer the locations where an aspect of the data sequence changes. In this paper, we propose and implement a nonparametric Bayesian model for clustering observations based on their constant-wise change-point profiles via Gibbs sampler. Our model incorporates a Dirichlet Process on the constant-wise change-point structures to cluster observations while simultaneously performing multiple change-point estimation. Additionally, our approach controls the number of clusters in the model, not requiring the specification of the number of clusters \textit{a priori}. Satisfactory clustering and estimation results were obtained when evaluating our method under various simulated scenarios and on a real dataset from single-cell genomic sequencing. Our proposed methodology is implemented as an R package called BayesCPclust and is available at \texttt{//github.com/acarolcruz/BayesCPclust}.
In conventional randomized controlled trials, adjustment for baseline values of covariates known to be at least moderately associated with the outcome increases the power of the trial. Recent work has shown particular benefit for more flexible frequentist designs, such as information adaptive and adaptive multi-arm designs. However, covariate adjustment has not been characterized within the more flexible Bayesian adaptive designs, despite their growing popularity. We focus on a subclass of these which allow for early stopping at an interim analysis given evidence of treatment superiority. We consider both collapsible and non-collapsible estimands, and show how to obtain posterior samples of marginal estimands from adjusted analyses. We describe several estimands for three common outcome types. We perform a simulation study to assess the impact of covariate adjustment using a variety of adjustment models in several different scenarios. This is followed by a real world application of the compared approaches to a COVID-19 trial with a binary endpoint. For all scenarios, it is shown that covariate adjustment increases power and the probability of stopping the trials early, and decreases the expected sample sizes as compared to unadjusted analyses.
Extreme quantiles are critical for understanding the behavior of data in the tail region of a distribution. It is challenging to estimate extreme quantiles, particularly when dealing with limited data in the tail. In such cases, extreme value theory offers a solution by approximating the tail distribution using the Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD). This allows for the extrapolation beyond the range of observed data, making it a valuable tool for various applications. However, when it comes to conditional cases, where estimation relies on covariates, existing methods may require computationally expensive GPD fitting for different observations. This computational burden becomes even more problematic as the volume of observations increases, sometimes approaching infinity. To address this issue, we propose an interpolation-based algorithm named EMI. EMI facilitates the online prediction of extreme conditional quantiles with finite offline observations. Combining quantile regression and GPD-based extrapolation, EMI formulates as a bilevel programming problem, efficiently solvable using classic optimization methods. Once estimates for offline observations are obtained, EMI employs B-spline interpolation for covariate-dependent variables, enabling estimation for online observations with finite GPD fitting. Simulations and real data analysis demonstrate the effectiveness of EMI across various scenarios.
As the use of autonomous robotic systems expands in tasks that are complex and challenging to model, the demand for robust data-driven control methods that can certify safety and stability in uncertain conditions is increasing. However, the practical implementation of these methods often faces scalability issues due to the growing amount of data points with system complexity, and a significant reliance on high-quality training data. In response to these challenges, this study presents a scalable data-driven controller that efficiently identifies and infers from the most informative data points for implementing data-driven safety filters. Our approach is grounded in the integration of a model-based certificate function-based method and Gaussian Process (GP) regression, reinforced by a novel online data selection algorithm that reduces time complexity from quadratic to linear relative to dataset size. Empirical evidence, gathered from successful real-world cart-pole swing-up experiments and simulated locomotion of a five-link bipedal robot, demonstrates the efficacy of our approach. Our findings reveal that our efficient online data selection algorithm, which strategically selects key data points, enhances the practicality and efficiency of data-driven certifying filters in complex robotic systems, significantly mitigating scalability concerns inherent in nonparametric learning-based control methods.
Linear real-valued computations over distributed datasets are common in many applications, most notably as part of machine learning inference. In particular, linear computations that are quantized, i.e., where the coefficients are restricted to a predetermined set of values (such as $\pm 1$), have gained increasing interest lately due to their role in efficient, robust, or private machine learning models. Given a dataset to store in a distributed system, we wish to encode it so that all such computations could be conducted by accessing a small number of servers, called the access parameter of the system. Doing so relieves the remaining servers to execute other tasks. Minimizing the access parameter gives rise to an access-redundancy tradeoff, where a smaller access parameter requires more redundancy in the system, and vice versa. In this paper, we study this tradeoff and provide several explicit low-access schemes for $\{\pm1\}$ quantized linear computations based on covering codes in a novel way. While the connection to covering codes has been observed in the past, our results strictly outperform the state-of-the-art for two-valued linear computations. We further show that the same storage scheme can be used to retrieve any linear combination with two distinct coefficients -- regardless of what those coefficients are -- with the same access parameter. This universality result is then extended to all possible quantizations with any number of values; while the storage remains identical, the access parameter increases according to a new additive-combinatorics property we call coefficient complexity. We then turn to study the coefficient complexity -- we characterize the complexity of small sets of coefficients, provide bounds, and identify coefficient sets having the highest and lowest complexity.
The existence of representative datasets is a prerequisite of many successful artificial intelligence and machine learning models. However, the subsequent application of these models often involves scenarios that are inadequately represented in the data used for training. The reasons for this are manifold and range from time and cost constraints to ethical considerations. As a consequence, the reliable use of these models, especially in safety-critical applications, is a huge challenge. Leveraging additional, already existing sources of knowledge is key to overcome the limitations of purely data-driven approaches, and eventually to increase the generalization capability of these models. Furthermore, predictions that conform with knowledge are crucial for making trustworthy and safe decisions even in underrepresented scenarios. This work provides an overview of existing techniques and methods in the literature that combine data-based models with existing knowledge. The identified approaches are structured according to the categories integration, extraction and conformity. Special attention is given to applications in the field of autonomous driving.
The rapid changes in the finance industry due to the increasing amount of data have revolutionized the techniques on data processing and data analysis and brought new theoretical and computational challenges. In contrast to classical stochastic control theory and other analytical approaches for solving financial decision-making problems that heavily reply on model assumptions, new developments from reinforcement learning (RL) are able to make full use of the large amount of financial data with fewer model assumptions and to improve decisions in complex financial environments. This survey paper aims to review the recent developments and use of RL approaches in finance. We give an introduction to Markov decision processes, which is the setting for many of the commonly used RL approaches. Various algorithms are then introduced with a focus on value and policy based methods that do not require any model assumptions. Connections are made with neural networks to extend the framework to encompass deep RL algorithms. Our survey concludes by discussing the application of these RL algorithms in a variety of decision-making problems in finance, including optimal execution, portfolio optimization, option pricing and hedging, market making, smart order routing, and robo-advising.
Social relations are often used to improve recommendation quality when user-item interaction data is sparse in recommender systems. Most existing social recommendation models exploit pairwise relations to mine potential user preferences. However, real-life interactions among users are very complicated and user relations can be high-order. Hypergraph provides a natural way to model complex high-order relations, while its potentials for improving social recommendation are under-explored. In this paper, we fill this gap and propose a multi-channel hypergraph convolutional network to enhance social recommendation by leveraging high-order user relations. Technically, each channel in the network encodes a hypergraph that depicts a common high-order user relation pattern via hypergraph convolution. By aggregating the embeddings learned through multiple channels, we obtain comprehensive user representations to generate recommendation results. However, the aggregation operation might also obscure the inherent characteristics of different types of high-order connectivity information. To compensate for the aggregating loss, we innovatively integrate self-supervised learning into the training of the hypergraph convolutional network to regain the connectivity information with hierarchical mutual information maximization. The experimental results on multiple real-world datasets show that the proposed model outperforms the SOTA methods, and the ablation study verifies the effectiveness of the multi-channel setting and the self-supervised task. The implementation of our model is available via //github.com/Coder-Yu/RecQ.