Quantitative technology forecasting uses quantitative methods to understand and project technological changes. It is a broad field encompassing many different techniques and has been applied to a vast range of technologies. A widely used approach in this field is trend extrapolation. Based on the publications available to us, there has been little or no attempt made to systematically review the empirical evidence on quantitative trend extrapolation techniques. This study attempts to close this gap by conducting a systematic review of technology forecasting literature addressing the application of quantitative trend extrapolation techniques. We identified 25 studies relevant to the objective of this research and classified the techniques used in the studies into different categories, among which growth curves and time series methods were shown to remain popular over the past decade, while newer methods, such as machine learning-based hybrid models, have emerged in recent years. As more effort and evidence are needed to determine if hybrid models are superior to traditional methods, we expect to see a growing trend in the development and application of hybrid models to technology forecasting.
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Among the common applications of plenoptic cameras are depth reconstruction and post-shot refocusing. These require a calibration relating the camera-side light field to that of the scene. Numerous methods with this goal have been developed based on thin lens models for the plenoptic camera's main lens and microlenses. Our work addresses the often-overlooked role of the main lens exit pupil in these models and specifically in the decoding process of standard plenoptic camera (SPC) images. We formally deduce the connection between the refocusing distance and the resampling parameter for the decoded light field and provide an analysis of the errors that arise when the exit pupil is not considered. In addition, previous work is revisited with respect to the exit pupil's role and all theoretical results are validated through a ray-tracing-based simulation. With the public release of the evaluated SPC designs alongside our simulation and experimental data we aim to contribute to a more accurate and nuanced understanding of plenoptic camera optics.
Conversational dense retrieval has shown to be effective in conversational search. However, a major limitation of conversational dense retrieval is their lack of interpretability, hindering intuitive understanding of model behaviors for targeted improvements. This paper presents CONVINV, a simple yet effective approach to shed light on interpretable conversational dense retrieval models. CONVINV transforms opaque conversational session embeddings into explicitly interpretable text while faithfully maintaining their original retrieval performance as much as possible. Such transformation is achieved by training a recently proposed Vec2Text model based on the ad-hoc query encoder, leveraging the fact that the session and query embeddings share the same space in existing conversational dense retrieval. To further enhance interpretability, we propose to incorporate external interpretable query rewrites into the transformation process. Extensive evaluations on three conversational search benchmarks demonstrate that CONVINV can yield more interpretable text and faithfully preserve original retrieval performance than baselines. Our work connects opaque session embeddings with transparent query rewriting, paving the way toward trustworthy conversational search.
Social media systems are as varied as they are pervasive. They have been almost universally adopted for a broad range of purposes including work, entertainment, activism, and decision making. As a result, they have also diversified, with many distinct designs differing in content type, organization, delivery mechanism, access control, and many other dimensions. In this work, we aim to characterize and then distill a concise design space of social media systems that can help us understand similarities and differences, recognize potential consequences of design choice, and identify spaces for innovation. Our model, which we call Form-From, characterizes social media based on (1) the form of the content, either threaded or flat, and (2) from where or from whom one might receive content, ranging from spaces to networks to the commons. We derive Form-From inductively from a larger set of 62 dimensions organized into 10 categories. To demonstrate the utility of our model, we trace the history of social media systems as they traverse the Form-From space over time, and we identify common design patterns within cells of the model.
In the field of robotics and automation, conventional object recognition and instance segmentation methods face a formidable challenge when it comes to perceiving Deformable Linear Objects (DLOs) like wires, cables, and flexible tubes. This challenge arises primarily from the lack of distinct attributes such as shape, color, and texture, which calls for tailored solutions to achieve precise identification. In this work, we propose a foundation model-based DLO instance segmentation technique that is text-promptable and user-friendly. Specifically, our approach combines the text-conditioned semantic segmentation capabilities of CLIPSeg model with the zero-shot generalization capabilities of Segment Anything Model (SAM). We show that our method exceeds SOTA performance on DLO instance segmentation, achieving a mIoU of $91.21\%$. We also introduce a rich and diverse DLO-specific dataset for instance segmentation.
Recent advancements in robotics enable robots to accomplish complex assembly tasks. However, designing an assembly requires a non-trivial effort since a slight variation in the design could significantly affect the task feasibility. It is critical to ensure the physical feasibility of the assembly design so that the assembly task can be successfully executed. To address the challenge, this paper studies the physical stability of assembly structures, in particular, block stacking assembly, where people use cubic blocks to build 3D structures (e.g., Lego constructions). The paper proposes a new optimization formulation, which optimizes over force balancing equations, for inferring the structural stability of 3D block-stacking structures. The proposed stability analysis is tested and verified on hand-crafted Lego examples. The experiment results demonstrate that the proposed stability analysis can correctly predict whether the structure is stable. In addition, it outperforms the existing methods since it can locate the weakest parts in the design, and more importantly, solve any given assembly structure. To further validate the proposed analysis formulation, we provide StableLego: a comprehensive dataset including more than 50k 3D objects with their Lego layouts. We test the proposed stability analysis and include the stability inference for each corresponding object in StableLego. Our code and the dataset are available at //github.com/intelligent-control-lab/StableLego.
Numerical reasoning is an essential ability for NLP systems to handle numeric information. Recent research indicates that fine-tuning a small-scale model to learn generating reasoning processes alongside answers can significantly enhance performance. However, current methods have the limitation that most methods generate reasoning processes with large language models (LLMs), which are "unreliable" since such processes could contain information unrelated to the answer. To address this limitation, we introduce Enhancing NumeriCal reasOning with Reliable procEsses (Encore), which derives the reliable reasoning process by decomposing the answer formula, ensuring which fully supports the answer. Nevertheless, models could lack enough data to learn the reasoning process generation adequately, since our method generates only one single reasoning process for one formula. To overcome this difficulty, we present a series of pre-training tasks to help models learn the reasoning process generation with synthesized data. The experiments show that Encore yields improvement on all five experimental datasets with an average of 1.8%, proving the effectiveness of our method.
The advent of large language models marks a revolutionary breakthrough in artificial intelligence. With the unprecedented scale of training and model parameters, the capability of large language models has been dramatically improved, leading to human-like performances in understanding, language synthesizing, and common-sense reasoning, etc. Such a major leap-forward in general AI capacity will change the pattern of how personalization is conducted. For one thing, it will reform the way of interaction between humans and personalization systems. Instead of being a passive medium of information filtering, large language models present the foundation for active user engagement. On top of such a new foundation, user requests can be proactively explored, and user's required information can be delivered in a natural and explainable way. For another thing, it will also considerably expand the scope of personalization, making it grow from the sole function of collecting personalized information to the compound function of providing personalized services. By leveraging large language models as general-purpose interface, the personalization systems may compile user requests into plans, calls the functions of external tools to execute the plans, and integrate the tools' outputs to complete the end-to-end personalization tasks. Today, large language models are still being developed, whereas the application in personalization is largely unexplored. Therefore, we consider it to be the right time to review the challenges in personalization and the opportunities to address them with LLMs. In particular, we dedicate this perspective paper to the discussion of the following aspects: the development and challenges for the existing personalization system, the newly emerged capabilities of large language models, and the potential ways of making use of large language models for personalization.
Graph neural networks (GNNs) have demonstrated a significant boost in prediction performance on graph data. At the same time, the predictions made by these models are often hard to interpret. In that regard, many efforts have been made to explain the prediction mechanisms of these models from perspectives such as GNNExplainer, XGNN and PGExplainer. Although such works present systematic frameworks to interpret GNNs, a holistic review for explainable GNNs is unavailable. In this survey, we present a comprehensive review of explainability techniques developed for GNNs. We focus on explainable graph neural networks and categorize them based on the use of explainable methods. We further provide the common performance metrics for GNNs explanations and point out several future research directions.
Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have been studied from the lens of expressive power and generalization. However, their optimization properties are less well understood. We take the first step towards analyzing GNN training by studying the gradient dynamics of GNNs. First, we analyze linearized GNNs and prove that despite the non-convexity of training, convergence to a global minimum at a linear rate is guaranteed under mild assumptions that we validate on real-world graphs. Second, we study what may affect the GNNs' training speed. Our results show that the training of GNNs is implicitly accelerated by skip connections, more depth, and/or a good label distribution. Empirical results confirm that our theoretical results for linearized GNNs align with the training behavior of nonlinear GNNs. Our results provide the first theoretical support for the success of GNNs with skip connections in terms of optimization, and suggest that deep GNNs with skip connections would be promising in practice.
Deep neural networks (DNNs) are successful in many computer vision tasks. However, the most accurate DNNs require millions of parameters and operations, making them energy, computation and memory intensive. This impedes the deployment of large DNNs in low-power devices with limited compute resources. Recent research improves DNN models by reducing the memory requirement, energy consumption, and number of operations without significantly decreasing the accuracy. This paper surveys the progress of low-power deep learning and computer vision, specifically in regards to inference, and discusses the methods for compacting and accelerating DNN models. The techniques can be divided into four major categories: (1) parameter quantization and pruning, (2) compressed convolutional filters and matrix factorization, (3) network architecture search, and (4) knowledge distillation. We analyze the accuracy, advantages, disadvantages, and potential solutions to the problems with the techniques in each category. We also discuss new evaluation metrics as a guideline for future research.
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