Determining unknown parameter values in dynamic models is crucial for accurate analysis of the dynamics across the different scientific disciplines. Discrete-time dynamic models are widely used to model biological processes, but it is often difficult to determine these parameters. In this paper, we propose a robust symbolic-numeric approach for parameter estimation in discrete-time models that involve non-algebraic functions such as exp. We illustrate the performance (precision) of our approach by applying our approach to the flour beetle (LPA) model, an archetypal discrete-time model in biology. Unlike optimization-based methods, our algorithm guarantees to find all solutions of the parameter values given time-series data for the measured variables.
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ACM/IEEE第23屆模型驅動工程語言和系統國際會議，是模型驅動軟件和系統工程的首要會議系列，由ACM-SIGSOFT和IEEE-TCSE支持組織。自1998年以來，模型涵蓋了建模的各個方面，從語言和方法到工具和應用程序。模特的參加者來自不同的背景，包括研究人員、學者、工程師和工業專業人士。MODELS 2019是一個論壇，參與者可以圍繞建模和模型驅動的軟件和系統交流前沿研究成果和創新實踐經驗。今年的版本將為建模社區提供進一步推進建模基礎的機會，并在網絡物理系統、嵌入式系統、社會技術系統、云計算、大數據、機器學習、安全、開源等新興領域提出建模的創新應用以及可持續性。
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High-performing out-of-distribution (OOD) detection, both anomaly and novel class, is an important prerequisite for the practical use of classification models. In this paper, we focus on the species recognition task in images concerned with large databases, a large number of fine-grained hierarchical classes, severe class imbalance, and varying image quality. We propose a framework for combining individual OOD measures into one combined OOD (COOD) measure using a supervised model. The individual measures are several existing state-of-the-art measures and several novel OOD measures developed with novel class detection and hierarchical class structure in mind. COOD was extensively evaluated on three large-scale (500k+ images) biodiversity datasets in the context of anomaly and novel class detection. We show that COOD outperforms individual, including state-of-the-art, OOD measures by a large margin in terms of TPR@1% FPR in the majority of experiments, e.g., improving detecting ImageNet images (OOD) from 54.3% to 85.4% for the iNaturalist 2018 dataset. SHAP (feature contribution) analysis shows that different individual OOD measures are essential for various tasks, indicating that multiple OOD measures and combinations are needed to generalize. Additionally, we show that explicitly considering ID images that are incorrectly classified for the original (species) recognition task is important for constructing high-performing OOD detection methods and for practical applicability. The framework can easily be extended or adapted to other tasks and media modalities.
Maximum entropy (Maxent) models are a class of statistical models that use the maximum entropy principle to estimate probability distributions from data. Due to the size of modern data sets, Maxent models need efficient optimization algorithms to scale well for big data applications. State-of-the-art algorithms for Maxent models, however, were not originally designed to handle big data sets; these algorithms either rely on technical devices that may yield unreliable numerical results, scale poorly, or require smoothness assumptions that many practical Maxent models lack. In this paper, we present novel optimization algorithms that overcome the shortcomings of state-of-the-art algorithms for training large-scale, non-smooth Maxent models. Our proposed first-order algorithms leverage the Kullback-Leibler divergence to train large-scale and non-smooth Maxent models efficiently. For Maxent models with discrete probability distribution of $n$ elements built from samples, each containing $m$ features, the stepsize parameters estimation and iterations in our algorithms scale on the order of $O(mn)$ operations and can be trivially parallelized. Moreover, the strong $\ell_{1}$ convexity of the Kullback--Leibler divergence allows for larger stepsize parameters, thereby speeding up the convergence rate of our algorithms. To illustrate the efficiency of our novel algorithms, we consider the problem of estimating probabilities of fire occurrences as a function of ecological features in the Western US MTBS-Interagency wildfire data set. Our numerical results show that our algorithms outperform the state of the arts by one order of magnitude and yield results that agree with physical models of wildfire occurrence and previous statistical analyses of wildfire drivers.
First-order methods are often analyzed via their continuous-time models, where their worst-case convergence properties are usually approached via Lyapunov functions. In this work, we provide a systematic and principled approach to find and verify Lyapunov functions for classes of ordinary and stochastic differential equations. More precisely, we extend the performance estimation framework, originally proposed by Drori and Teboulle [10], to continuous-time models. We retrieve convergence results comparable to those of discrete methods using fewer assumptions and convexity inequalities, and provide new results for stochastic accelerated gradient flows.
We give a short survey of recent results on sparse-grid linear algorithms of approximate recovery and integration of functions possessing a unweighted or weighted Sobolev mixed smoothness based on their sampled values at a certain finite set. Some of them are extended to more general cases.
Generative models for multimodal data permit the identification of latent factors that may be associated with important determinants of observed data heterogeneity. Common or shared factors could be important for explaining variation across modalities whereas other factors may be private and important only for the explanation of a single modality. Multimodal Variational Autoencoders, such as MVAE and MMVAE, are a natural choice for inferring those underlying latent factors and separating shared variation from private. In this work, we investigate their capability to reliably perform this disentanglement. In particular, we highlight a challenging problem setting where modality-specific variation dominates the shared signal. Taking a cross-modal prediction perspective, we demonstrate limitations of existing models, and propose a modification how to make them more robust to modality-specific variation. Our findings are supported by experiments on synthetic as well as various real-world multi-omics data sets.
This article is concerned with the multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) methods for approximating expectations of some functions of the solution to the Heston 3/2-model from mathematical finance, which takes values in $(0, \infty)$ and possesses superlinearly growing drift and diffusion coefficients. To discretize the SDE model, a new Milstein-type scheme is proposed to produce independent sample paths. The proposed scheme can be explicitly solved and is positivity-preserving unconditionally, i.e., for any time step-size $h>0$. This positivity-preserving property for large discretization time steps is particularly desirable in the MLMC setting. Furthermore, a mean-square convergence rate of order one is proved in the non-globally Lipschitz regime, which is not trivial, as the diffusion coefficient grows super-linearly. The obtained order-one convergence in turn promises the desired relevant variance of the multilevel estimator and justifies the optimal complexity $\mathcal{O}(\epsilon^{-2})$ for the MLMC approach, where $\epsilon > 0$ is the required target accuracy. Numerical experiments are finally reported to confirm the theoretical findings.
Mendelian randomization is an instrumental variable method that utilizes genetic information to investigate the causal effect of a modifiable exposure on an outcome. In most cases, the exposure changes over time. Understanding the time-varying causal effect of the exposure can yield detailed insights into mechanistic effects and the potential impact of public health interventions. Recently, a growing number of Mendelian randomization studies have attempted to explore time-varying causal effects. However, the proposed approaches oversimplify temporal information and rely on overly restrictive structural assumptions, limiting their reliability in addressing time-varying causal problems. This paper considers a novel approach to estimate time-varying effects through continuous-time modelling by combining functional principal component analysis and weak-instrument-robust techniques. Our method effectively utilizes available data without making strong structural assumptions and can be applied in general settings where the exposure measurements occur at different timepoints for different individuals. We demonstrate through simulations that our proposed method performs well in estimating time-varying effects and provides reliable inference results when the time-varying effect form is correctly specified. The method could theoretically be used to estimate arbitrarily complex time-varying effects. However, there is a trade-off between model complexity and instrument strength. Estimating complex time-varying effects requires instruments that are unrealistically strong. We illustrate the application of this method in a case study examining the time-varying effects of systolic blood pressure on urea levels.
It is known that singular values of idempotent matrices are either zero or larger or equal to one \cite{HouC63}. We state exactly how many singular values greater than one, equal to one, and equal to zero there are. Moreover, we derive a singular value decomposition of idempotent matrices which reveals a tight relationship between its left and right singular vectors. The same idea is used to augment a discovery regarding the singular values of involutory matrices as presented in \cite{FasH20}.
The minimum covariance determinant (MCD) estimator is a popular method for robustly estimating the mean and covariance of multivariate data. We extend the MCD to the setting where the observations are matrices rather than vectors and introduce the matrix minimum covariance determinant (MMCD) estimators for robust parameter estimation. These estimators hold equivariance properties, achieve a high breakdown point, and are consistent under elliptical matrix-variate distributions. We have also developed an efficient algorithm with convergence guarantees to compute the MMCD estimators. Using the MMCD estimators, we can compute robust Mahalanobis distances that can be used for outlier detection. Those distances can be decomposed into outlyingness contributions from each cell, row, or column of a matrix-variate observation using Shapley values, a concept for outlier explanation recently introduced in the multivariate setting. Simulations and examples reveal the excellent properties and usefulness of the robust estimators.
We derive information-theoretic generalization bounds for supervised learning algorithms based on the information contained in predictions rather than in the output of the training algorithm. These bounds improve over the existing information-theoretic bounds, are applicable to a wider range of algorithms, and solve two key challenges: (a) they give meaningful results for deterministic algorithms and (b) they are significantly easier to estimate. We show experimentally that the proposed bounds closely follow the generalization gap in practical scenarios for deep learning.
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