Demystifying the interactions among multiple agents from their past trajectories is fundamental to precise and interpretable trajectory prediction. However, previous works only consider pair-wise interactions with limited relational reasoning. To promote more comprehensive interaction modeling for relational reasoning, we propose GroupNet, a multiscale hypergraph neural network, which is novel in terms of both interaction capturing and representation learning. From the aspect of interaction capturing, we propose a trainable multiscale hypergraph to capture both pair-wise and group-wise interactions at multiple group sizes. From the aspect of interaction representation learning, we propose a three-element format that can be learnt end-to-end and explicitly reason some relational factors including the interaction strength and category. We apply GroupNet into both CVAE-based prediction system and previous state-of-the-art prediction systems for predicting socially plausible trajectories with relational reasoning. To validate the ability of relational reasoning, we experiment with synthetic physics simulations to reflect the ability to capture group behaviors, reason interaction strength and interaction category. To validate the effectiveness of prediction, we conduct extensive experiments on three real-world trajectory prediction datasets, including NBA, SDD and ETH-UCY; and we show that with GroupNet, the CVAE-based prediction system outperforms state-of-the-art methods. We also show that adding GroupNet will further improve the performance of previous state-of-the-art prediction systems.
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Stock prices move as piece-wise trending fluctuation rather than a purely random walk. Traditionally, the prediction of future stock movements is based on the historical trading record. Nowadays, with the development of social media, many active participants in the market choose to publicize their strategies, which provides a window to glimpse over the whole market's attitude towards future movements by extracting the semantics behind social media. However, social media contains conflicting information and cannot replace historical records completely. In this work, we propose a multi-modality attention network to reduce conflicts and integrate semantic and numeric features to predict future stock movements comprehensively. Specifically, we first extract semantic information from social media and estimate their credibility based on posters' identity and public reputation. Then we incorporate the semantic from online posts and numeric features from historical records to make the trading strategy. Experimental results show that our approach outperforms previous methods by a significant margin in both prediction accuracy (61.20\%) and trading profits (9.13\%). It demonstrates that our method improves the performance of stock movements prediction and informs future research on multi-modality fusion towards stock prediction.
Commonsense reasoning systems should be able to generalize to diverse reasoning cases. However, most state-of-the-art approaches depend on expensive data annotations and overfit to a specific benchmark without learning how to perform general semantic reasoning. To overcome these drawbacks, zero-shot QA systems have shown promise as a robust learning scheme by transforming a commonsense knowledge graph (KG) into synthetic QA-form samples for model training. Considering the increasing type of different commonsense KGs, this paper aims to extend the zero-shot transfer learning scenario into multiple-source settings, where different KGs can be utilized synergetically. Towards this goal, we propose to mitigate the loss of knowledge from the interference among the different knowledge sources, by developing a modular variant of the knowledge aggregation as a new zero-shot commonsense reasoning framework. Results on five commonsense reasoning benchmarks demonstrate the efficacy of our framework, improving the performance with multiple KGs.
Contextual bandits aim to identify among a set of arms the optimal one with the highest reward based on their contextual information. Motivated by the fact that the arms usually exhibit group behaviors and the mutual impacts exist among groups, we introduce a new model, Arm Group Graph (AGG), where the nodes represent the groups of arms and the weighted edges formulate the correlations among groups. To leverage the rich information in AGG, we propose a bandit algorithm, AGG-UCB, where the neural networks are designed to estimate rewards, and we propose to utilize graph neural networks (GNN) to learn the representations of arm groups with correlations. To solve the exploitation-exploration dilemma in bandits, we derive a new upper confidence bound (UCB) built on neural networks (exploitation) for exploration. Furthermore, we prove that AGG-UCB can achieve a near-optimal regret bound with over-parameterized neural networks, and provide the convergence analysis of GNN with fully-connected layers which may be of independent interest. In the end, we conduct extensive experiments against state-of-the-art baselines on multiple public data sets, showing the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm.
Accurately modeling quadrotor's system dynamics is critical for guaranteeing agile, safe, and stable navigation. The model needs to capture the system behavior in multiple flight regimes and operating conditions, including those producing highly nonlinear effects such as aerodynamic forces and torques, rotor interactions, or possible system configuration modifications. Classical approaches rely on handcrafted models and struggle to generalize and scale to capture these effects. In this paper, we present a novel Physics-Inspired Temporal Convolutional Network (PI-TCN) approach to learning quadrotor's system dynamics purely from robot experience. Our approach combines the expressive power of sparse temporal convolutions and dense feed-forward connections to make accurate system predictions. In addition, physics constraints are embedded in the training process to facilitate the network's generalization capabilities to data outside the training distribution. Finally, we design a model predictive control approach that incorporates the learned dynamics for accurate closed-loop trajectory tracking fully exploiting the learned model predictions in a receding horizon fashion. Experimental results demonstrate that our approach accurately extracts the structure of the quadrotor's dynamics from data, capturing effects that would remain hidden to classical approaches. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first time physics-inspired deep learning is successfully applied to temporal convolutional networks and to the system identification task, while concurrently enabling predictive control.
Link prediction is a very fundamental task on graphs. Inspired by traditional path-based methods, in this paper we propose a general and flexible representation learning framework based on paths for link prediction. Specifically, we define the representation of a pair of nodes as the generalized sum of all path representations, with each path representation as the generalized product of the edge representations in the path. Motivated by the Bellman-Ford algorithm for solving the shortest path problem, we show that the proposed path formulation can be efficiently solved by the generalized Bellman-Ford algorithm. To further improve the capacity of the path formulation, we propose the Neural Bellman-Ford Network (NBFNet), a general graph neural network framework that solves the path formulation with learned operators in the generalized Bellman-Ford algorithm. The NBFNet parameterizes the generalized Bellman-Ford algorithm with 3 neural components, namely INDICATOR, MESSAGE and AGGREGATE functions, which corresponds to the boundary condition, multiplication operator, and summation operator respectively. The NBFNet is very general, covers many traditional path-based methods, and can be applied to both homogeneous graphs and multi-relational graphs (e.g., knowledge graphs) in both transductive and inductive settings. Experiments on both homogeneous graphs and knowledge graphs show that the proposed NBFNet outperforms existing methods by a large margin in both transductive and inductive settings, achieving new state-of-the-art results.
The accurate and interpretable prediction of future events in time-series data often requires the capturing of representative patterns (or referred to as states) underpinning the observed data. To this end, most existing studies focus on the representation and recognition of states, but ignore the changing transitional relations among them. In this paper, we present evolutionary state graph, a dynamic graph structure designed to systematically represent the evolving relations (edges) among states (nodes) along time. We conduct analysis on the dynamic graphs constructed from the time-series data and show that changes on the graph structures (e.g., edges connecting certain state nodes) can inform the occurrences of events (i.e., time-series fluctuation). Inspired by this, we propose a novel graph neural network model, Evolutionary State Graph Network (EvoNet), to encode the evolutionary state graph for accurate and interpretable time-series event prediction. Specifically, Evolutionary State Graph Network models both the node-level (state-to-state) and graph-level (segment-to-segment) propagation, and captures the node-graph (state-to-segment) interactions over time. Experimental results based on five real-world datasets show that our approach not only achieves clear improvements compared with 11 baselines, but also provides more insights towards explaining the results of event predictions.
Graph representation learning for hypergraphs can be used to extract patterns among higher-order interactions that are critically important in many real world problems. Current approaches designed for hypergraphs, however, are unable to handle different types of hypergraphs and are typically not generic for various learning tasks. Indeed, models that can predict variable-sized heterogeneous hyperedges have not been available. Here we develop a new self-attention based graph neural network called Hyper-SAGNN applicable to homogeneous and heterogeneous hypergraphs with variable hyperedge sizes. We perform extensive evaluations on multiple datasets, including four benchmark network datasets and two single-cell Hi-C datasets in genomics. We demonstrate that Hyper-SAGNN significantly outperforms the state-of-the-art methods on traditional tasks while also achieving great performance on a new task called outsider identification. Hyper-SAGNN will be useful for graph representation learning to uncover complex higher-order interactions in different applications.
The recent proliferation of knowledge graphs (KGs) coupled with incomplete or partial information, in the form of missing relations (links) between entities, has fueled a lot of research on knowledge base completion (also known as relation prediction). Several recent works suggest that convolutional neural network (CNN) based models generate richer and more expressive feature embeddings and hence also perform well on relation prediction. However, we observe that these KG embeddings treat triples independently and thus fail to cover the complex and hidden information that is inherently implicit in the local neighborhood surrounding a triple. To this effect, our paper proposes a novel attention based feature embedding that captures both entity and relation features in any given entity's neighborhood. Additionally, we also encapsulate relation clusters and multihop relations in our model. Our empirical study offers insights into the efficacy of our attention based model and we show marked performance gains in comparison to state of the art methods on all datasets.
Inferring missing links in knowledge graphs (KG) has attracted a lot of attention from the research community. In this paper, we tackle a practical query answering task involving predicting the relation of a given entity pair. We frame this prediction problem as an inference problem in a probabilistic graphical model and aim at resolving it from a variational inference perspective. In order to model the relation between the query entity pair, we assume that there exists an underlying latent variable (paths connecting two nodes) in the KG, which carries the equivalent semantics of their relations. However, due to the intractability of connections in large KGs, we propose to use variation inference to maximize the evidence lower bound. More specifically, our framework (\textsc{Diva}) is composed of three modules, i.e. a posterior approximator, a prior (path finder), and a likelihood (path reasoner). By using variational inference, we are able to incorporate them closely into a unified architecture and jointly optimize them to perform KG reasoning. With active interactions among these sub-modules, \textsc{Diva} is better at handling noise and coping with more complex reasoning scenarios. In order to evaluate our method, we conduct the experiment of the link prediction task on multiple datasets and achieve state-of-the-art performances on both datasets.
Multi-relation Question Answering is a challenging task, due to the requirement of elaborated analysis on questions and reasoning over multiple fact triples in knowledge base. In this paper, we present a novel model called Interpretable Reasoning Network that employs an interpretable, hop-by-hop reasoning process for question answering. The model dynamically decides which part of an input question should be analyzed at each hop; predicts a relation that corresponds to the current parsed results; utilizes the predicted relation to update the question representation and the state of the reasoning process; and then drives the next-hop reasoning. Experiments show that our model yields state-of-the-art results on two datasets. More interestingly, the model can offer traceable and observable intermediate predictions for reasoning analysis and failure diagnosis.
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