Real-world decision-making problems are usually accompanied by delayed rewards, which affects the sample efficiency of Reinforcement Learning, especially in the extremely delayed case where the only feedback is the episodic reward obtained at the end of an episode. Episodic return decomposition is a promising way to deal with the episodic-reward setting. Several corresponding algorithms have shown remarkable effectiveness of the learned step-wise proxy rewards from return decomposition. However, these existing methods lack either attribution or representation capacity, leading to inefficient decomposition in the case of long-term episodes. In this paper, we propose a novel episodic return decomposition method called Diaster (Difference of implicitly assigned sub-trajectory reward). Diaster decomposes any episodic reward into credits of two divided sub-trajectories at any cut point, and the step-wise proxy rewards come from differences in expectation. We theoretically and empirically verify that the decomposed proxy reward function can guide the policy to be nearly optimal. Experimental results show that our method outperforms previous state-of-the-art methods in terms of both sample efficiency and performance.
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Our paper discovers a new trade-off of using regression adjustments (RAs) in causal inference under covariate-adaptive randomizations (CARs). On one hand, RAs can improve the efficiency of causal estimators by incorporating information from covariates that are not used in the randomization. On the other hand, RAs can degrade estimation efficiency due to their estimation errors, which are not asymptotically negligible when the number of regressors is of the same order as the sample size. Ignoring the estimation errors of RAs may result in serious over-rejection of causal inference under the null hypothesis. To address the issue, we construct a new ATE estimator by optimally linearly combining the adjusted and unadjusted estimators. We then develop a unified inference theory for this estimator under CARs. It has two features: (1) the Wald test based on it achieves the exact asymptotic size under the null hypothesis, regardless of whether the number of covariates is fixed or diverges no faster than the sample size; and (2) it guarantees weak efficiency improvement over both the adjusted and unadjusted estimators.
Autonomous agents based on Large Language Models (LLMs) that devise plans and tackle real-world challenges have gained prominence.However, tailoring these agents for specialized domains like quantitative investment remains a formidable task. The core challenge involves efficiently building and integrating a domain-specific knowledge base for the agent's learning process. This paper introduces a principled framework to address this challenge, comprising a two-layer loop.In the inner loop, the agent refines its responses by drawing from its knowledge base, while in the outer loop, these responses are tested in real-world scenarios to automatically enhance the knowledge base with new insights.We demonstrate that our approach enables the agent to progressively approximate optimal behavior with provable efficiency.Furthermore, we instantiate this framework through an autonomous agent for mining trading signals named QuantAgent. Empirical results showcase QuantAgent's capability in uncovering viable financial signals and enhancing the accuracy of financial forecasts.
We investigate the problem of probably approximately correct and fair (PACF) ranking of items by adaptively evoking pairwise comparisons. Given a set of $n$ items that belong to disjoint groups, our goal is to find an $(\epsilon, \delta)$-PACF-Ranking according to a fair objective function that we propose. We assume access to an oracle, wherein, for each query, the learner can choose a pair of items and receive stochastic winner feedback from the oracle. Our proposed objective function asks to minimize the $\ell_q$ norm of the error of the groups, where the error of a group is the $\ell_p$ norm of the error of all the items within that group, for $p, q \geq 1$. This generalizes the objective function of $\epsilon$-Best-Ranking, proposed by Saha & Gopalan (2019). By adopting our objective function, we gain the flexibility to explore fundamental fairness concepts like equal or proportionate errors within a unified framework. Adjusting parameters $p$ and $q$ allows tailoring to specific fairness preferences. We present both group-blind and group-aware algorithms and analyze their sample complexity. We provide matching lower bounds up to certain logarithmic factors for group-blind algorithms. For a restricted class of group-aware algorithms, we show that we can get reasonable lower bounds. We conduct comprehensive experiments on both real-world and synthetic datasets to complement our theoretical findings.
The efficacy of self-supervised speech models has been validated, yet the optimal utilization of their representations remains challenging across diverse tasks. In this study, we delve into Acoustic Word Embeddings (AWEs), a fixed-length feature derived from continuous representations, to explore their advantages in specific tasks. AWEs have previously shown utility in capturing acoustic discriminability. In light of this, we propose measuring layer-wise similarity between AWEs and word embeddings, aiming to further investigate the inherent context within AWEs. Moreover, we evaluate the contribution of AWEs, in comparison to other types of speech features, in the context of Speech Emotion Recognition (SER). Through a comparative experiment and a layer-wise accuracy analysis on two distinct corpora, IEMOCAP and ESD, we explore differences between AWEs and raw self-supervised representations, as well as the proper utilization of AWEs alone and in combination with word embeddings. Our findings underscore the acoustic context conveyed by AWEs and showcase the highly competitive SER accuracies by appropriately employing AWEs.
We study off-policy evaluation (OPE) in the problem of slate contextual bandits where a policy selects multi-dimensional actions known as slates. This problem is widespread in recommender systems, search engines, marketing, to medical applications, however, the typical Inverse Propensity Scoring (IPS) estimator suffers from substantial variance due to large action spaces, making effective OPE a significant challenge. The PseudoInverse (PI) estimator has been introduced to mitigate the variance issue by assuming linearity in the reward function, but this can result in significant bias as this assumption is hard-to-verify from observed data and is often substantially violated. To address the limitations of previous estimators, we develop a novel estimator for OPE of slate bandits, called Latent IPS (LIPS), which defines importance weights in a low-dimensional slate abstraction space where we optimize slate abstractions to minimize the bias and variance of LIPS in a data-driven way. By doing so, LIPS can substantially reduce the variance of IPS without imposing restrictive assumptions on the reward function structure like linearity. Through empirical evaluation, we demonstrate that LIPS substantially outperforms existing estimators, particularly in scenarios with non-linear rewards and large slate spaces.
Black-box optimization (BBO) has become increasingly relevant for tackling complex decision-making problems, especially in public policy domains such as police districting. However, its broader application in public policymaking is hindered by the complexity of defining feasible regions and the high-dimensionality of decisions. This paper introduces a novel BBO framework, termed as the Conditional And Generative Black-box Optimization (CageBO). This approach leverages a conditional variational autoencoder to learn the distribution of feasible decisions, enabling a two-way mapping between the original decision space and a simplified, constraint-free latent space. The CageBO efficiently handles the implicit constraints often found in public policy applications, allowing for optimization in the latent space while evaluating objectives in the original space. We validate our method through a case study on large-scale police districting problems in Atlanta, Georgia. Our results reveal that our CageBO offers notable improvements in performance and efficiency compared to the baselines.
Reasoning, a crucial ability for complex problem-solving, plays a pivotal role in various real-world settings such as negotiation, medical diagnosis, and criminal investigation. It serves as a fundamental methodology in the field of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). With the ongoing development of foundation models, e.g., Large Language Models (LLMs), there is a growing interest in exploring their abilities in reasoning tasks. In this paper, we introduce seminal foundation models proposed or adaptable for reasoning, highlighting the latest advancements in various reasoning tasks, methods, and benchmarks. We then delve into the potential future directions behind the emergence of reasoning abilities within foundation models. We also discuss the relevance of multimodal learning, autonomous agents, and super alignment in the context of reasoning. By discussing these future research directions, we hope to inspire researchers in their exploration of this field, stimulate further advancements in reasoning with foundation models, and contribute to the development of AGI.
Residual networks (ResNets) have displayed impressive results in pattern recognition and, recently, have garnered considerable theoretical interest due to a perceived link with neural ordinary differential equations (neural ODEs). This link relies on the convergence of network weights to a smooth function as the number of layers increases. We investigate the properties of weights trained by stochastic gradient descent and their scaling with network depth through detailed numerical experiments. We observe the existence of scaling regimes markedly different from those assumed in neural ODE literature. Depending on certain features of the network architecture, such as the smoothness of the activation function, one may obtain an alternative ODE limit, a stochastic differential equation or neither of these. These findings cast doubts on the validity of the neural ODE model as an adequate asymptotic description of deep ResNets and point to an alternative class of differential equations as a better description of the deep network limit.
Promoting behavioural diversity is critical for solving games with non-transitive dynamics where strategic cycles exist, and there is no consistent winner (e.g., Rock-Paper-Scissors). Yet, there is a lack of rigorous treatment for defining diversity and constructing diversity-aware learning dynamics. In this work, we offer a geometric interpretation of behavioural diversity in games and introduce a novel diversity metric based on \emph{determinantal point processes} (DPP). By incorporating the diversity metric into best-response dynamics, we develop \emph{diverse fictitious play} and \emph{diverse policy-space response oracle} for solving normal-form games and open-ended games. We prove the uniqueness of the diverse best response and the convergence of our algorithms on two-player games. Importantly, we show that maximising the DPP-based diversity metric guarantees to enlarge the \emph{gamescape} -- convex polytopes spanned by agents' mixtures of strategies. To validate our diversity-aware solvers, we test on tens of games that show strong non-transitivity. Results suggest that our methods achieve much lower exploitability than state-of-the-art solvers by finding effective and diverse strategies.
Multi-relation Question Answering is a challenging task, due to the requirement of elaborated analysis on questions and reasoning over multiple fact triples in knowledge base. In this paper, we present a novel model called Interpretable Reasoning Network that employs an interpretable, hop-by-hop reasoning process for question answering. The model dynamically decides which part of an input question should be analyzed at each hop; predicts a relation that corresponds to the current parsed results; utilizes the predicted relation to update the question representation and the state of the reasoning process; and then drives the next-hop reasoning. Experiments show that our model yields state-of-the-art results on two datasets. More interestingly, the model can offer traceable and observable intermediate predictions for reasoning analysis and failure diagnosis, thereby allowing manual manipulation in predicting the final answer.
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