We study the decentralized online regularized linear regression algorithm over random time-varying graphs. At each time step, every node runs an online estimation algorithm consisting of an innovation term processing its own new measurement, a consensus term taking a weighted sum of estimations of its own and its neighbors with additive and multiplicative communication noises and a regularization term preventing over-fitting. It is not required that the regression matrices and graphs satisfy special statistical assumptions such as mutual independence, spatio-temporal independence or stationarity. We develop the nonnegative supermartingale inequality of the estimation error, and prove that the estimations of all nodes converge to the unknown true parameter vector almost surely if the algorithm gains, graphs and regression matrices jointly satisfy the sample path spatio-temporal persistence of excitation condition. Especially, this condition holds by choosing appropriate algorithm gains if the graphs are uniformly conditionally jointly connected and conditionally balanced, and the regression models of all nodes are uniformly conditionally spatio-temporally jointly observable, under which the algorithm converges in mean square and almost surely. In addition, we prove that the regret upper bound $\mathcal O(T^{1-\tau}\ln T)$, where $\tau\in (0.5,1)$ is a constant depending on the algorithm gains.
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We study the performance -- and specifically the rate at which the error probability converges to zero -- of Machine Learning (ML) classification techniques. Leveraging the theory of large deviations, we provide the mathematical conditions for a ML classifier to exhibit error probabilities that vanish exponentially, say $\sim \exp\left(-n\,I + o(n) \right)$, where $n$ is the number of informative observations available for testing (or another relevant parameter, such as the size of the target in an image) and $I$ is the error rate. Such conditions depend on the Fenchel-Legendre transform of the cumulant-generating function of the Data-Driven Decision Function (D3F, i.e., what is thresholded before the final binary decision is made) learned in the training phase. As such, the D3F and, consequently, the related error rate $I$, depend on the given training set, which is assumed of finite size. Interestingly, these conditions can be verified and tested numerically exploiting the available dataset, or a synthetic dataset, generated according to the available information on the underlying statistical model. In other words, the classification error probability convergence to zero and its rate can be computed on a portion of the dataset available for training. Coherently with the large deviations theory, we can also establish the convergence, for $n$ large enough, of the normalized D3F statistic to a Gaussian distribution. This property is exploited to set a desired asymptotic false alarm probability, which empirically turns out to be accurate even for quite realistic values of $n$. Furthermore, approximate error probability curves $\sim \zeta_n \exp\left(-n\,I \right)$ are provided, thanks to the refined asymptotic derivation (often referred to as exact asymptotics), where $\zeta_n$ represents the most representative sub-exponential terms of the error probabilities.
In this paper, we study a sequential decision making problem faced by e-commerce carriers related to when to send out a vehicle from the central depot to serve customer requests, and in which order to provide the service, under the assumption that the time at which parcels arrive at the depot is stochastic and dynamic. The objective is to maximize the number of parcels that can be delivered during the service hours. We propose two reinforcement learning approaches for solving this problem, one based on a policy function approximation (PFA) and the second on a value function approximation (VFA). Both methods are combined with a look-ahead strategy, in which future release dates are sampled in a Monte-Carlo fashion and a tailored batch approach is used to approximate the value of future states. Our PFA and VFA make a good use of branch-and-cut-based exact methods to improve the quality of decisions. We also establish sufficient conditions for partial characterization of optimal policy and integrate them into PFA/VFA. In an empirical study based on 720 benchmark instances, we conduct a competitive analysis using upper bounds with perfect information and we show that PFA and VFA greatly outperform two alternative myopic approaches. Overall, PFA provides best solutions, while VFA (which benefits from a two-stage stochastic optimization model) achieves a better tradeoff between solution quality and computing time.
Spatial data can exhibit dependence structures more complicated than can be represented using models that rely on the traditional assumptions of stationarity and isotropy. Several statistical methods have been developed to relax these assumptions. One in particular, the "spatial deformation approach" defines a transformation from the geographic space in which data are observed, to a latent space in which stationarity and isotropy are assumed to hold. Taking inspiration from this class of models, we develop a new model for spatially dependent data observed on graphs. Our method implies an embedding of the graph into Euclidean space wherein the covariance can be modeled using traditional covariance functions such as those from the Mat\'{e}rn family. This is done via a class of graph metrics compatible with such covariance functions. By estimating the edge weights which underlie these metrics, we can recover the "intrinsic distance" between nodes of a graph. We compare our model to existing methods for spatially dependent graph data, primarily conditional autoregressive (CAR) models and their variants and illustrate the advantages our approach has over traditional methods. We fit our model and competitors to bird abundance data for several species in North Carolina. We find that our model fits the data best, and provides insight into the interaction between species-specific spatial distributions and geography.
In this article, we study the whole theory of regularized learning for generalized data in Banach spaces including representer theorems, approximation theorems, and convergence theorems. The generalized input data are composed of linear functionals in the predual spaces of the Banach spaces to represent the discrete local information of different engineering and physics models. The generalized data and the multi-loss functions are used to compute the empirical risks, and the regularized learning is to minimize the regularized empirical risks over the Banach spaces. Even if the original problems are unknown or unformulated, then the exact solutions of the original problems are approximated globally by the regularized learning. In the proof of the convergence theorems, the strong convergence condition is replaced to the weak convergence condition with the additional checkable condition which is independent of the original problems. The theorems of the regularized learning can be used to solve many problems of machine learning such as support vector machines and neural networks.
We showcase a variety of functions and classes that implement sampling procedures with improved exploration of the parameter space assisted by machine learning. Special attention is paid to setting sane defaults with the objective that adjustments required by different problems remain minimal. This collection of routines can be employed for different types of analysis, from finding bounds on the parameter space to accumulating samples in areas of interest. In particular, we discuss two methods assisted by incorporating different machine learning models: regression and classification. We show that a machine learning classifier can provide higher efficiency for exploring the parameter space. Also, we introduce a boosting technique to improve the slow convergence at the start of the process. The use of these routines is better explained with the help of a few examples that illustrate the type of results one can obtain. We also include examples of the code used to obtain the examples as well as descriptions of the adjustments that can be made to adapt the calculation to other problems. We finalize by showing the impact of these techniques when exploring the parameter space of the two Higgs doublet model that matches the measured Higgs Boson signal strength. The code used for this paper and instructions on how to use it are available on the web.
The proliferation of automated data collection schemes and the advances in sensorics are increasing the amount of data we are able to monitor in real-time. However, given the high annotation costs and the time required by quality inspections, data is often available in an unlabeled form. This is fostering the use of active learning for the development of soft sensors and predictive models. In production, instead of performing random inspections to obtain product information, labels are collected by evaluating the information content of the unlabeled data. Several query strategy frameworks for regression have been proposed in the literature but most of the focus has been dedicated to the static pool-based scenario. In this work, we propose a new strategy for the stream-based scenario, where instances are sequentially offered to the learner, which must instantaneously decide whether to perform the quality check to obtain the label or discard the instance. The approach is inspired by the optimal experimental design theory and the iterative aspect of the decision-making process is tackled by setting a threshold on the informativeness of the unlabeled data points. The proposed approach is evaluated using numerical simulations and the Tennessee Eastman Process simulator. The results confirm that selecting the examples suggested by the proposed algorithm allows for a faster reduction in the prediction error.
Importance sampling (IS) is valuable in reducing the variance of Monte Carlo sampling for many areas, including finance, rare event simulation, and Bayesian inference. It is natural and obvious to combine quasi-Monte Carlo (QMC) methods with IS to achieve a faster rate of convergence. However, a naive replacement of Monte Carlo with QMC may not work well. This paper investigates the convergence rates of randomized QMC-based IS for estimating integrals with respect to a Gaussian measure, in which the IS measure is a Gaussian or $t$ distribution. We prove that if the target function satisfies the so-called boundary growth condition and the covariance matrix of the IS density has eigenvalues no smaller than 1, then randomized QMC with the Gaussian proposal has a root mean squared error of $O(N^{-1+\epsilon})$ for arbitrarily small $\epsilon>0$. Similar results of $t$ distribution as the proposal are also established. These sufficient conditions help to assess the effectiveness of IS in QMC. For some particular applications, we find that the Laplace IS, a very general approach to approximate the target function by a quadratic Taylor approximation around its mode, has eigenvalues smaller than 1, making the resulting integrand less favorable for QMC. From this point of view, when using Gaussian distributions as the IS proposal, a change of measure via Laplace IS may transform a favorable integrand into unfavorable one for QMC although the variance of Monte Carlo sampling is reduced. We also give some examples to verify our propositions and warn against naive replacement of MC with QMC under IS proposals. Numerical results suggest that using Laplace IS with $t$ distributions is more robust than that with Gaussian distributions.
The literature on treatment choice focuses on the mean of welfare regret. Ignoring other features of the regret distribution, however, can lead to an undesirable rule that suffers from a high chance of welfare loss due to sampling uncertainty. We propose to minimize the mean of a nonlinear transformation of welfare regret. This paradigm shift alters optimal rules drastically. We show that for a wide class of nonlinear criteria, admissible rules are fractional. Focusing on mean square regret, we derive the closed-form probabilities of randomization for finite-sample Bayes and minimax optimal rules when data are normal with known variance. The minimax optimal rule is a simple logit based on the sample mean and agrees with the posterior probability for positive treatment effect under the least favorable prior. The Bayes optimal rule with an uninformative prior is different but produces quantitatively comparable mean square regret. We extend these results to limit experiments and discuss our findings through sample size calculations.
Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have received considerable attention on graph-structured data learning for a wide variety of tasks. The well-designed propagation mechanism which has been demonstrated effective is the most fundamental part of GNNs. Although most of GNNs basically follow a message passing manner, litter effort has been made to discover and analyze their essential relations. In this paper, we establish a surprising connection between different propagation mechanisms with a unified optimization problem, showing that despite the proliferation of various GNNs, in fact, their proposed propagation mechanisms are the optimal solution optimizing a feature fitting function over a wide class of graph kernels with a graph regularization term. Our proposed unified optimization framework, summarizing the commonalities between several of the most representative GNNs, not only provides a macroscopic view on surveying the relations between different GNNs, but also further opens up new opportunities for flexibly designing new GNNs. With the proposed framework, we discover that existing works usually utilize naive graph convolutional kernels for feature fitting function, and we further develop two novel objective functions considering adjustable graph kernels showing low-pass or high-pass filtering capabilities respectively. Moreover, we provide the convergence proofs and expressive power comparisons for the proposed models. Extensive experiments on benchmark datasets clearly show that the proposed GNNs not only outperform the state-of-the-art methods but also have good ability to alleviate over-smoothing, and further verify the feasibility for designing GNNs with our unified optimization framework.
With the rapid increase of large-scale, real-world datasets, it becomes critical to address the problem of long-tailed data distribution (i.e., a few classes account for most of the data, while most classes are under-represented). Existing solutions typically adopt class re-balancing strategies such as re-sampling and re-weighting based on the number of observations for each class. In this work, we argue that as the number of samples increases, the additional benefit of a newly added data point will diminish. We introduce a novel theoretical framework to measure data overlap by associating with each sample a small neighboring region rather than a single point. The effective number of samples is defined as the volume of samples and can be calculated by a simple formula $(1-\beta^{n})/(1-\beta)$, where $n$ is the number of samples and $\beta \in [0,1)$ is a hyperparameter. We design a re-weighting scheme that uses the effective number of samples for each class to re-balance the loss, thereby yielding a class-balanced loss. Comprehensive experiments are conducted on artificially induced long-tailed CIFAR datasets and large-scale datasets including ImageNet and iNaturalist. Our results show that when trained with the proposed class-balanced loss, the network is able to achieve significant performance gains on long-tailed datasets.
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