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In this study, we examine the fluctuation in the value of the Great Britain Pound (GBP). We focus particularly on its relationship with the United States Dollar (USD) and the Euro (EUR) currency pairs. Utilizing data from June 15, 2018, to June 15, 2023, we apply various mathematical models to assess their effectiveness in predicting the 20-day variation in the pairs' daily returns. Our analysis involves the implementation of Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (EWMA), Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models, and Implied Volatility (IV) models. To evaluate their performance, we compare the accuracy of their predictions using Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE) metrics. We delve into the intricacies of GARCH models, examining their statistical characteristics when applied to the provided dataset. Our findings suggest the existence of asymmetric returns in the EUR/GBP pair, while such evidence is inconclusive for the GBP/USD pair. Additionally, we observe that GARCH-type models better fit the data when assuming residuals follow a standard t-distribution rather than a standard normal distribution. Furthermore, we investigate the efficacy of different forecasting techniques within GARCH-type models. Comparing rolling window forecasts to expanding window forecasts, we find no definitive superiority in either approach across the tested scenarios. Our experiments reveal that for the GBP/USD pair, the most accurate volatility forecasts stem from the utilization of GARCH models employing a rolling window methodology. Conversely, for the EUR/GBP pair, optimal forecasts are derived from GARCH models and Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) models incorporating the annualized implied volatility of the exchange rate as an independent variable.

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ACM/IEEE第23屆模型驅動工程語言和系統國際會議,是模型驅動軟件和系統工程的首要會議系列,由ACM-SIGSOFT和IEEE-TCSE支持組織。自1998年以來,模型涵蓋了建模的各個方面,從語言和方法到工具和應用程序。模特的參加者來自不同的背景,包括研究人員、學者、工程師和工業專業人士。MODELS 2019是一個論壇,參與者可以圍繞建模和模型驅動的軟件和系統交流前沿研究成果和創新實踐經驗。今年的版本將為建模社區提供進一步推進建模基礎的機會,并在網絡物理系統、嵌入式系統、社會技術系統、云計算、大數據、機器學習、安全、開源等新興領域提出建模的創新應用以及可持續性。 官網鏈接: · Guidance · 張成子空間 · 語言模型化 · Analysis ·
2024 年 3 月 21 日

This study presents NewsBench, a novel benchmark framework developed to evaluate the capability of Large Language Models (LLMs) in Chinese Journalistic Writing Proficiency (JWP) and their Safety Adherence (SA), addressing the gap between journalistic ethics and the risks associated with AI utilization. Comprising 1,267 tasks across 5 editorial applications, 7 aspects (including safety and journalistic writing with 4 detailed facets), and spanning 24 news topics domains, NewsBench employs two GPT-4 based automatic evaluation protocols validated by human assessment. Our comprehensive analysis of 10 LLMs highlighted GPT-4 and ERNIE Bot as top performers, yet revealed a relative deficiency in journalistic ethic adherence during creative writing tasks. These findings underscore the need for enhanced ethical guidance in AI-generated journalistic content, marking a step forward in aligning AI capabilities with journalistic standards and safety considerations.

Generative AI (GAI) offers unprecedented possibilities but its commercialization has raised concerns about transparency, reproducibility, bias, and safety. Many "open-source" GAI models lack the necessary components for full understanding and reproduction, and some use restrictive licenses, a practice known as "openwashing." We propose the Model Openness Framework (MOF), a ranked classification system that rates machine learning models based on their completeness and openness, following principles of open science, open source, open data, and open access. The MOF requires specific components of the model development lifecycle to be included and released under appropriate open licenses. This framework aims to prevent misrepresentation of models claiming to be open, guide researchers and developers in providing all model components under permissive licenses, and help companies, academia, and hobbyists identify models that can be safely adopted without restrictions. Wide adoption of the MOF will foster a more open AI ecosystem, accelerating research, innovation, and adoption.

In our research, we pioneer a novel approach to evaluate the effectiveness of jailbreak attacks on Large Language Models (LLMs), such as GPT-4 and LLaMa2, diverging from traditional robustness-focused binary evaluations. Our study introduces two distinct evaluation frameworks: a coarse-grained evaluation and a fine-grained evaluation. Each framework, using a scoring range from 0 to 1, offers a unique perspective, enabling a more comprehensive and nuanced evaluation of attack effectiveness and empowering attackers to refine their attack prompts with greater understanding. Furthermore, we have developed a comprehensive ground truth dataset specifically tailored for jailbreak tasks. This dataset not only serves as a crucial benchmark for our current study but also establishes a foundational resource for future research, enabling consistent and comparative analyses in this evolving field. Upon meticulous comparison with traditional evaluation methods, we discovered that our evaluation aligns with the baseline's trend while offering a more profound and detailed assessment. We believe that by accurately evaluating the effectiveness of attack prompts in the Jailbreak task, our work lays a solid foundation for assessing a wider array of similar or even more complex tasks in the realm of prompt injection, potentially revolutionizing this field.

This study introduces a refined Flooding Injection Rate-adjustable Denial-of-Service (DoS) model for Network-on-Chips (NoCs) and more importantly presents DL2Fence, a novel framework utilizing Deep Learning (DL) and Frame Fusion (2F) for DoS detection and localization. Two Convolutional Neural Networks models for classification and segmentation were developed to detect and localize DoS respectively. It achieves detection and localization accuracies of 95.8\% and 91.7\%, and precision rates of 98.5\% and 99.3\% in a 16x16 mesh NoC. The framework's hardware overhead notably decreases by 76.3\% when scaling from 8x8 to 16x16 NoCs, and it requires 42.4\% less hardware compared to state-of-the-arts. This advancement demonstrates DL2Fence's effectiveness in balancing outstanding detection performance in large-scale NoCs with extremely low hardware overhead.

Data Augmentation (DA) has emerged as an indispensable strategy in Time Series Classification (TSC), primarily due to its capacity to amplify training samples, thereby bolstering model robustness, diversifying datasets, and curtailing overfitting. However, the current landscape of DA in TSC is plagued with fragmented literature reviews, nebulous methodological taxonomies, inadequate evaluative measures, and a dearth of accessible, user-oriented tools. In light of these challenges, this study embarks on an exhaustive dissection of DA methodologies within the TSC realm. Our initial approach involved an extensive literature review spanning a decade, revealing that contemporary surveys scarcely capture the breadth of advancements in DA for TSC, prompting us to meticulously analyze over 100 scholarly articles to distill more than 60 unique DA techniques. This rigorous analysis precipitated the formulation of a novel taxonomy, purpose-built for the intricacies of DA in TSC, categorizing techniques into five principal echelons: Transformation-Based, Pattern-Based, Generative, Decomposition-Based, and Automated Data Augmentation. Our taxonomy promises to serve as a robust navigational aid for scholars, offering clarity and direction in method selection. Addressing the conspicuous absence of holistic evaluations for prevalent DA techniques, we executed an all-encompassing empirical assessment, wherein upwards of 15 DA strategies were subjected to scrutiny across 8 UCR time-series datasets, employing ResNet and a multi-faceted evaluation paradigm encompassing Accuracy, Method Ranking, and Residual Analysis, yielding a benchmark accuracy of 88.94 +- 11.83%. Our investigation underscored the inconsistent efficacies of DA techniques, with...

This article presents a comprehensive analysis of the different tests proposed in the recent ChildCI framework, proving its potential for generating a better understanding of children's neuromotor and cognitive development along time, as well as their possible application in other research areas such as e-Health and e-Learning. In particular, we propose a set of over 100 global features related to motor and cognitive aspects of the children interaction with mobile devices, some of them collected and adapted from the literature. Furthermore, we analyse the robustness and discriminative power of the proposed feature set including experimental results for the task of children age group detection based on their motor and cognitive behaviours. Two different scenarios are considered in this study: i) single-test scenario, and ii) multiple-test scenario. Results over 93% accuracy are achieved using the publicly available ChildCIdb_v1 database (over 400 children from 18 months to 8 years old), proving the high correlation of children's age with the way they interact with mobile devices.

Multimodality Representation Learning, as a technique of learning to embed information from different modalities and their correlations, has achieved remarkable success on a variety of applications, such as Visual Question Answering (VQA), Natural Language for Visual Reasoning (NLVR), and Vision Language Retrieval (VLR). Among these applications, cross-modal interaction and complementary information from different modalities are crucial for advanced models to perform any multimodal task, e.g., understand, recognize, retrieve, or generate optimally. Researchers have proposed diverse methods to address these tasks. The different variants of transformer-based architectures performed extraordinarily on multiple modalities. This survey presents the comprehensive literature on the evolution and enhancement of deep learning multimodal architectures to deal with textual, visual and audio features for diverse cross-modal and modern multimodal tasks. This study summarizes the (i) recent task-specific deep learning methodologies, (ii) the pretraining types and multimodal pretraining objectives, (iii) from state-of-the-art pretrained multimodal approaches to unifying architectures, and (iv) multimodal task categories and possible future improvements that can be devised for better multimodal learning. Moreover, we prepare a dataset section for new researchers that covers most of the benchmarks for pretraining and finetuning. Finally, major challenges, gaps, and potential research topics are explored. A constantly-updated paperlist related to our survey is maintained at //github.com/marslanm/multimodality-representation-learning.

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have gained momentum in graph representation learning and boosted the state of the art in a variety of areas, such as data mining (\emph{e.g.,} social network analysis and recommender systems), computer vision (\emph{e.g.,} object detection and point cloud learning), and natural language processing (\emph{e.g.,} relation extraction and sequence learning), to name a few. With the emergence of Transformers in natural language processing and computer vision, graph Transformers embed a graph structure into the Transformer architecture to overcome the limitations of local neighborhood aggregation while avoiding strict structural inductive biases. In this paper, we present a comprehensive review of GNNs and graph Transformers in computer vision from a task-oriented perspective. Specifically, we divide their applications in computer vision into five categories according to the modality of input data, \emph{i.e.,} 2D natural images, videos, 3D data, vision + language, and medical images. In each category, we further divide the applications according to a set of vision tasks. Such a task-oriented taxonomy allows us to examine how each task is tackled by different GNN-based approaches and how well these approaches perform. Based on the necessary preliminaries, we provide the definitions and challenges of the tasks, in-depth coverage of the representative approaches, as well as discussions regarding insights, limitations, and future directions.

A fundamental goal of scientific research is to learn about causal relationships. However, despite its critical role in the life and social sciences, causality has not had the same importance in Natural Language Processing (NLP), which has traditionally placed more emphasis on predictive tasks. This distinction is beginning to fade, with an emerging area of interdisciplinary research at the convergence of causal inference and language processing. Still, research on causality in NLP remains scattered across domains without unified definitions, benchmark datasets and clear articulations of the remaining challenges. In this survey, we consolidate research across academic areas and situate it in the broader NLP landscape. We introduce the statistical challenge of estimating causal effects, encompassing settings where text is used as an outcome, treatment, or as a means to address confounding. In addition, we explore potential uses of causal inference to improve the performance, robustness, fairness, and interpretability of NLP models. We thus provide a unified overview of causal inference for the computational linguistics community.

This work considers the question of how convenient access to copious data impacts our ability to learn causal effects and relations. In what ways is learning causality in the era of big data different from -- or the same as -- the traditional one? To answer this question, this survey provides a comprehensive and structured review of both traditional and frontier methods in learning causality and relations along with the connections between causality and machine learning. This work points out on a case-by-case basis how big data facilitates, complicates, or motivates each approach.

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