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To assess the quality of a probabilistic prediction for stochastic dynamical systems (SDSs), scoring rules assign a numerical score based on the predictive distribution and the measured state. In this paper, we propose an $\epsilon$-logarithm score that generalizes the celebrated logarithm score by considering a neighborhood with radius $\epsilon$. We characterize the probabilistic predictability of an SDS by optimizing the expected score over the space of probability measures. We show how the probabilistic predictability is quantitatively determined by the neighborhood radius, the differential entropies of process noises, and the system dimension. Given any predictor, we provide approximations for the expected score with an error of scale $\mathcal{O}(\epsilon)$. In addition to the expected score, we also analyze the asymptotic behaviors of the score on individual trajectories. Specifically, we prove that the score on a trajectory can converge to the expected score when the process noises are independent and identically distributed. Moreover, the convergence speed against the trajectory length $T$ is of scale $\mathcal{O}(T^{-\frac{1}{2}})$ in the sense of probability. Finally, numerical examples are given to elaborate the results.

We study principal components regression (PCR) in an asymptotic high-dimensional regression setting, where the number of data points is proportional to the dimension. We derive exact limiting formulas for the estimation and prediction risks, which depend in a complicated manner on the eigenvalues of the population covariance, the alignment between the population PCs and the true signal, and the number of selected PCs. A key challenge in the high-dimensional setting stems from the fact that the sample covariance is an inconsistent estimate of its population counterpart, so that sample PCs may fail to fully capture potential latent low-dimensional structure in the data. We demonstrate this point through several case studies, including that of a spiked covariance model. To calculate the asymptotic prediction risk, we leverage tools from random matrix theory which to our knowledge have not seen much use to date in the statistics literature: multi-resolvent traces and their associated eigenvector overlap measures.

Answer Set Programming (ASP) is a declarative problem solving paradigm that can be used to encode a combinatorial problem as a logic program whose stable models correspond to the solutions of the considered problem. ASP has been widely applied to various domains in AI and beyond. The question "What can be said about stable models of a logic program from its static information?" has been investigated and proved useful in many circumstances. In this work, we dive into this direction more deeply by making the connection between a logic program and a Boolean network, which is a prominent modeling framework with applications to various areas. The proposed connection can bring the existing results in the rich history on static analysis of Boolean networks to explore and prove more theoretical results on ASP, making it become a unified and powerful tool to further study the static analysis of ASP. In particular, the newly obtained insights have the potential to benefit many problems in the field of ASP.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown excellent generalization capabilities that have led to the development of numerous models. These models propose various new architectures, tweaking existing architectures with refined training strategies, increasing context length, using high-quality training data, and increasing training time to outperform baselines. Analyzing new developments is crucial for identifying changes that enhance training stability and improve generalization in LLMs. This survey paper comprehensively analyses the LLMs architectures and their categorization, training strategies, training datasets, and performance evaluations and discusses future research directions. Moreover, the paper also discusses the basic building blocks and concepts behind LLMs, followed by a complete overview of LLMs, including their important features and functions. Finally, the paper summarizes significant findings from LLM research and consolidates essential architectural and training strategies for developing advanced LLMs. Given the continuous advancements in LLMs, we intend to regularly update this paper by incorporating new sections and featuring the latest LLM models.

The concept of causality plays an important role in human cognition . In the past few decades, causal inference has been well developed in many fields, such as computer science, medicine, economics, and education. With the advancement of deep learning techniques, it has been increasingly used in causal inference against counterfactual data. Typically, deep causal models map the characteristics of covariates to a representation space and then design various objective optimization functions to estimate counterfactual data unbiasedly based on the different optimization methods. This paper focuses on the survey of the deep causal models, and its core contributions are as follows: 1) we provide relevant metrics under multiple treatments and continuous-dose treatment; 2) we incorporate a comprehensive overview of deep causal models from both temporal development and method classification perspectives; 3) we assist a detailed and comprehensive classification and analysis of relevant datasets and source code.

We consider the problem of explaining the predictions of graph neural networks (GNNs), which otherwise are considered as black boxes. Existing methods invariably focus on explaining the importance of graph nodes or edges but ignore the substructures of graphs, which are more intuitive and human-intelligible. In this work, we propose a novel method, known as SubgraphX, to explain GNNs by identifying important subgraphs. Given a trained GNN model and an input graph, our SubgraphX explains its predictions by efficiently exploring different subgraphs with Monte Carlo tree search. To make the tree search more effective, we propose to use Shapley values as a measure of subgraph importance, which can also capture the interactions among different subgraphs. To expedite computations, we propose efficient approximation schemes to compute Shapley values for graph data. Our work represents the first attempt to explain GNNs via identifying subgraphs explicitly and directly. Experimental results show that our SubgraphX achieves significantly improved explanations, while keeping computations at a reasonable level.

Residual networks (ResNets) have displayed impressive results in pattern recognition and, recently, have garnered considerable theoretical interest due to a perceived link with neural ordinary differential equations (neural ODEs). This link relies on the convergence of network weights to a smooth function as the number of layers increases. We investigate the properties of weights trained by stochastic gradient descent and their scaling with network depth through detailed numerical experiments. We observe the existence of scaling regimes markedly different from those assumed in neural ODE literature. Depending on certain features of the network architecture, such as the smoothness of the activation function, one may obtain an alternative ODE limit, a stochastic differential equation or neither of these. These findings cast doubts on the validity of the neural ODE model as an adequate asymptotic description of deep ResNets and point to an alternative class of differential equations as a better description of the deep network limit.

We describe the new field of mathematical analysis of deep learning. This field emerged around a list of research questions that were not answered within the classical framework of learning theory. These questions concern: the outstanding generalization power of overparametrized neural networks, the role of depth in deep architectures, the apparent absence of the curse of dimensionality, the surprisingly successful optimization performance despite the non-convexity of the problem, understanding what features are learned, why deep architectures perform exceptionally well in physical problems, and which fine aspects of an architecture affect the behavior of a learning task in which way. We present an overview of modern approaches that yield partial answers to these questions. For selected approaches, we describe the main ideas in more detail.

Attention Model has now become an important concept in neural networks that has been researched within diverse application domains. This survey provides a structured and comprehensive overview of the developments in modeling attention. In particular, we propose a taxonomy which groups existing techniques into coherent categories. We review salient neural architectures in which attention has been incorporated, and discuss applications in which modeling attention has shown a significant impact. Finally, we also describe how attention has been used to improve the interpretability of neural networks. We hope this survey will provide a succinct introduction to attention models and guide practitioners while developing approaches for their applications.