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This survey delves into the application of diffusion models in time-series forecasting. Diffusion models are demonstrating state-of-the-art results in various fields of generative AI. The paper includes comprehensive background information on diffusion models, detailing their conditioning methods and reviewing their use in time-series forecasting. The analysis covers 11 specific time-series implementations, the intuition and theory behind them, the effectiveness on different datasets, and a comparison among each other. Key contributions of this work are the thorough exploration of diffusion models' applications in time-series forecasting and a chronologically ordered overview of these models. Additionally, the paper offers an insightful discussion on the current state-of-the-art in this domain and outlines potential future research directions. This serves as a valuable resource for researchers in AI and time-series analysis, offering a clear view of the latest advancements and future potential of diffusion models.

The end-to-end ASR model is often desired in the streaming multilingual scenario since it is easier to deploy and can benefit from pre-trained speech models such as powerful foundation models. Meanwhile, the heterogeneous nature and imbalanced data abundance of different languages may cause performance degradation, leading to asynchronous peak performance for different languages during training, especially on tail ones. Sometimes even the data itself may become unavailable as a result of the enhanced privacy protection. Existing work tend to significantly increase the model size or learn language-specific decoders to accommodate each language separately. In this study, we explore simple yet effective Language-Dependent Adapter (LDA) finetuning under a cascaded Conformer transducer framework enhanced by teacher pseudo-labeling for tail languages in the streaming multilingual ASR. The adapter only accounts for 0.4% of the full model per language. It is plugged into the frozen foundation model and is the only trainable module during the finetuning process with noisy student training. The final model merges the adapter parameters from different checkpoints for different languages. The model performance is validated on a challenging multilingual dictation dataset, which includes 39 tail languages across Latin, Greek, Arabic, etc. Our proposed method brings 12.2% word error rate reduction on average and up to 37.5% on a single locale. Furthermore, we show that our parameter-efficient LDA can match the quality of the full model finetuning, thus greatly alleviating the asynchronous peak performance issue.

As deep neural networks are more commonly deployed in high-stakes domains, their lack of interpretability makes uncertainty quantification challenging. We investigate the effects of presenting conformal prediction sets$\unicode{x2013}$a method for generating valid confidence sets in distribution-free uncertainty quantification$\unicode{x2013}$to express uncertainty in AI-advised decision-making. Through a large pre-registered experiment, we compare the utility of conformal prediction sets to displays of Top-1 and Top-k predictions for AI-advised image labeling. We find that the utility of prediction sets for accuracy varies with the difficulty of the task: while they result in accuracy on par with or less than Top-1 and Top-k displays for easy images, prediction sets excel at assisting humans in labeling out-of-distribution (OOD) images especially when the set size is small. Our results empirically pinpoint the practical challenges of conformal prediction sets and provide implications on how to incorporate them for real-world decision-making.

We present a result according to which certain functions of covariance matrices are maximized at scalar multiples of the identity matrix. This is used to show that experimental designs that are optimal under an assumption of independent, homoscedastic responses can be minimax robust, in broad classes of alternate covariance structures. In particular it can justify the common practice of disregarding possible dependence, or heteroscedasticity, at the design stage of an experiment.

We propose a novel, heterogeneous multi-agent architecture that miniaturizes rovers by outsourcing power generation to a central hub. By delegating power generation and distribution functions to this hub, the size, weight, power, and cost (SWAP-C) per rover are reduced, enabling efficient fleet scaling. As these rovers conduct mission tasks around the terrain, the hub charges an array of replacement battery modules. When a rover requires charging, it returns to the hub to initiate an autonomous docking sequence and exits with a fully charged battery. This confers an advantage over direct charging methods, such as wireless or wired charging, by replenishing a rover in minutes as opposed to hours, increasing net rover uptime. This work shares an open-source platform developed to demonstrate battery swapping on unknown field terrain. We detail our design methodologies utilized for increasing system reliability, with a focus on optimization, robust mechanical design, and verification. Optimization of the system is discussed, including the design of passive guide rails through simulation-based optimization methods which increase the valid docking configuration space by 258%. The full system was evaluated during integrated testing, where an average servicing time of 98 seconds was achieved on surfaces with a gradient up to 10{\deg}. We conclude by briefly proposing flight considerations for advancing the system toward a space-ready design. In sum, this prototype represents a proof of concept for autonomous docking and battery transfer on field terrain, advancing its Technology Readiness Level (TRL) from 1 to 3.

The hyperparameters of recommender systems for top-n predictions are typically optimized to enhance the predictive performance of algorithms. Thereby, the optimization algorithm, e.g., grid search or random search, searches for the best hyperparameter configuration according to an optimization-target metric, like nDCG or Precision. In contrast, the optimized algorithm, internally optimizes a different loss function during training, like squared error or cross-entropy. To tackle this discrepancy, recent work focused on generating loss functions better suited for recommender systems. Yet, when evaluating an algorithm using a top-n metric during optimization, another discrepancy between the optimization-target metric and the training loss has so far been ignored. During optimization, the top-n items are selected for computing a top-n metric; ignoring that the top-n items are selected from the recommendations of a model trained with an entirely different loss function. Item recommendations suitable for optimization-target metrics could be outside the top-n recommended items; hiddenly impacting the optimization performance. Therefore, we were motivated to analyze whether the top-n items are optimal for optimization-target top-n metrics. In pursuit of an answer, we exhaustively evaluate the predictive performance of 250 selection strategies besides selecting the top-n. We extensively evaluate each selection strategy over twelve implicit feedback and eight explicit feedback data sets with eleven recommender systems algorithms. Our results show that there exist selection strategies other than top-n that increase predictive performance for various algorithms and recommendation domains. However, the performance of the top ~43% of selection strategies is not significantly different. We discuss the impact of our findings on optimization and re-ranking in recommender systems and feasible solutions.

Residual networks (ResNets) have displayed impressive results in pattern recognition and, recently, have garnered considerable theoretical interest due to a perceived link with neural ordinary differential equations (neural ODEs). This link relies on the convergence of network weights to a smooth function as the number of layers increases. We investigate the properties of weights trained by stochastic gradient descent and their scaling with network depth through detailed numerical experiments. We observe the existence of scaling regimes markedly different from those assumed in neural ODE literature. Depending on certain features of the network architecture, such as the smoothness of the activation function, one may obtain an alternative ODE limit, a stochastic differential equation or neither of these. These findings cast doubts on the validity of the neural ODE model as an adequate asymptotic description of deep ResNets and point to an alternative class of differential equations as a better description of the deep network limit.

Sampling methods (e.g., node-wise, layer-wise, or subgraph) has become an indispensable strategy to speed up training large-scale Graph Neural Networks (GNNs). However, existing sampling methods are mostly based on the graph structural information and ignore the dynamicity of optimization, which leads to high variance in estimating the stochastic gradients. The high variance issue can be very pronounced in extremely large graphs, where it results in slow convergence and poor generalization. In this paper, we theoretically analyze the variance of sampling methods and show that, due to the composite structure of empirical risk, the variance of any sampling method can be decomposed into \textit{embedding approximation variance} in the forward stage and \textit{stochastic gradient variance} in the backward stage that necessities mitigating both types of variance to obtain faster convergence rate. We propose a decoupled variance reduction strategy that employs (approximate) gradient information to adaptively sample nodes with minimal variance, and explicitly reduces the variance introduced by embedding approximation. We show theoretically and empirically that the proposed method, even with smaller mini-batch sizes, enjoys a faster convergence rate and entails a better generalization compared to the existing methods.

Object detection typically assumes that training and test data are drawn from an identical distribution, which, however, does not always hold in practice. Such a distribution mismatch will lead to a significant performance drop. In this work, we aim to improve the cross-domain robustness of object detection. We tackle the domain shift on two levels: 1) the image-level shift, such as image style, illumination, etc, and 2) the instance-level shift, such as object appearance, size, etc. We build our approach based on the recent state-of-the-art Faster R-CNN model, and design two domain adaptation components, on image level and instance level, to reduce the domain discrepancy. The two domain adaptation components are based on H-divergence theory, and are implemented by learning a domain classifier in adversarial training manner. The domain classifiers on different levels are further reinforced with a consistency regularization to learn a domain-invariant region proposal network (RPN) in the Faster R-CNN model. We evaluate our newly proposed approach using multiple datasets including Cityscapes, KITTI, SIM10K, etc. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed approach for robust object detection in various domain shift scenarios.

While it is nearly effortless for humans to quickly assess the perceptual similarity between two images, the underlying processes are thought to be quite complex. Despite this, the most widely used perceptual metrics today, such as PSNR and SSIM, are simple, shallow functions, and fail to account for many nuances of human perception. Recently, the deep learning community has found that features of the VGG network trained on the ImageNet classification task has been remarkably useful as a training loss for image synthesis. But how perceptual are these so-called "perceptual losses"? What elements are critical for their success? To answer these questions, we introduce a new Full Reference Image Quality Assessment (FR-IQA) dataset of perceptual human judgments, orders of magnitude larger than previous datasets. We systematically evaluate deep features across different architectures and tasks and compare them with classic metrics. We find that deep features outperform all previous metrics by huge margins. More surprisingly, this result is not restricted to ImageNet-trained VGG features, but holds across different deep architectures and levels of supervision (supervised, self-supervised, or even unsupervised). Our results suggest that perceptual similarity is an emergent property shared across deep visual representations.