Verification of probabilistic forecasts for extreme events has been a very active field of research, stirred by media and public opinions who naturally focus their attention on extreme events, and easily draw biased onclusions. In this context, classical verification methodologies tailored for extreme events, such as thresholded and weighted scoring rules, have undesirable properties that cannot be mitigated; the well-known Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS) makes no exception. In this paper, we define a formal framework to assess the behavior of forecast evaluation procedures with respect to extreme events, that we use to point out that assessment based on the expectation of a proper score is not suitable for extremes. As an alternative, we propose to study the properties of the CRPS as a random variable using extreme value theory to address extreme events verification. To compare calibrated forecasts, an index is introduced that summarizes the ability of probabilistic forecasts to predict extremes. Its strengths and limitations are discussed using both theoretical arguments and simulations.
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This work proposes a new framework of model reduction for parametric complex systems. The framework employs a popular model reduction technique dynamic mode decomposition (DMD), which is capable of combining data-driven learning and physics ingredients based on the Koopman operator theory. In the offline step of the proposed framework, DMD constructs a low-rank linear surrogate model for the high dimensional quantities of interest (QoIs) derived from the (nonlinear) complex high fidelity models (HFMs) of unknown forms. Then in the online step, the resulting local reduced order bases (ROBs) and parametric reduced order models (PROMs) at the training parameter sample points are interpolated to construct a new PROM with the corresponding ROB for a new set of target/test parameter values. The interpolations need to be done on the appropriate manifolds within consistent sets of generalized coordinates. The proposed framework is illustrated by numerical examples for both linear and nonlinear problems. In particular, its advantages in computational costs and accuracy are demonstrated by the comparisons with projection-based proper orthogonal decomposition (POD)-PROM and Kriging.
Micro-expressions are spontaneous, unconscious facial movements that show people's true inner emotions and have great potential in related fields of psychological testing. Since the face is a 3D deformation object, the occurrence of an expression can arouse spatial deformation of the face, but limited by the available databases are 2D videos, lacking the description of 3D spatial information of micro-expressions. Therefore, we proposed a new micro-expression database containing 2D video sequences and 3D point clouds sequences. The database includes 373 micro-expressions sequences, and these samples were classified using the objective method based on facial action coding system, as well as the non-objective method that combines video contents and participants' self-reports. We extracted 2D and 3D features using the local binary patterns on three orthogonal planes (LBP-TOP) and curvature algorithms, respectively, and evaluated the classification accuracies of these two features and their fusion results with leave-one-subject-out (LOSO) and 10-fold cross-validation. Further, we performed various neural network algorithms for database classification, the results show that classification accuracies are improved by fusing 3D features than using only 2D features. The database offers original and cropped micro-expression samples, which will facilitate the exploration and research on 3D Spatio-temporal features of micro-expressions.
For relational structures A, B of the same signature, the Promise Constraint Satisfaction Problem PCSP(A,B) asks whether a given input structure maps homomorphically to A or does not even map to B. We are promised that the input satisfies exactly one of these two cases. If there exists a structure C with homomorphisms $A\to C\to B$, then PCSP(A,B) reduces naturally to CSP(C). To the best of our knowledge all known tractable PCSPs reduce to tractable CSPs in this way. However Barto showed that some PCSPs over finite structures A, B require solving CSPs over infinite C. We show that even when such a reduction to finite C is possible, this structure may become arbitrarily large. For every integer $n>1$ and every prime p we give A, B of size n with a single relation of arity $n^p$ such that PCSP(A, B) reduces via a chain of homomorphisms $ A\to C\to B$ to a tractable CSP over some C of size p but not over any smaller structure. In a second family of examples, for every prime $p\geq 7$ we construct A, B of size $p-1$ with a single ternary relation such that PCSP(A, B) reduces via $A\to C\to B$ to a tractable CSP over some C of size p but not over any smaller structure. In contrast we show that if A, B are graphs and PCSP(A,B) reduces to tractable CSP(C) for some finite digraph C, then already A or B has a tractable CSP. This extends results and answers a question of Deng et al.
Continuous-time measurements are instrumental for a multitude of tasks in quantum engineering and quantum control, including the estimation of dynamical parameters of open quantum systems monitored through the environment. However, such measurements do not extract the maximum amount of information available in the output state, so finding alternative optimal measurement strategies is a major open problem. In this paper we solve this problem in the setting of discrete-time input-output quantum Markov chains. We present an efficient algorithm for optimal estimation of one-dimensional dynamical parameters which consists of an iterative procedure for updating a `measurement filter' operator and determining successive measurement bases for the output units. A key ingredient of the scheme is the use of a coherent quantum absorber as a way to post-process the output after the interaction with the system. This is designed adaptively such that the joint system and absorber stationary state is pure at a reference parameter value. The scheme offers an exciting prospect for optimal continuous-time adaptive measurements, but more work is needed to find realistic practical implementations.
Modern web services routinely provide REST APIs for clients to access their functionality. These APIs present unique challenges and opportunities for automated testing, driving the recent development of many techniques and tools that generate test cases for API endpoints using various strategies. Understanding how these techniques compare to one another is difficult, as they have been evaluated on different benchmarks and using different metrics. To fill this gap, we performed an empirical study aimed to understand the landscape in automated testing of REST APIs and guide future research in this area. We first identified, through a systematic selection process, a set of 10 state-of-the-art REST API testing tools that included tools developed by both researchers and practitioners. We then applied these tools to a benchmark of 20 real-world open-source RESTful services and analyzed their performance in terms of code coverage achieved and unique failures triggered. This analysis allowed us to identify strengths, weaknesses, and limitations of the tools considered and of their underlying strategies, as well as implications of our findings for future research in this area.
The metriplectic formalism is useful for describing complete dynamical systems which conserve energy and produce entropy. This creates challenges for model reduction, as the elimination of high-frequency information will generally not preserve the metriplectic structure which governs long-term stability of the system. Based on proper orthogonal decomposition, a provably convergent metriplectic reduced-order model is formulated which is guaranteed to maintain the algebraic structure necessary for energy conservation and entropy formation. Numerical results on benchmark problems show that the proposed method is remarkably stable, leading to improved accuracy over long time scales at a moderate increase in cost over naive methods.
The instrumental variable method is widely used in the health and social sciences for identification and estimation of causal effects in the presence of potentially unmeasured confounding. In order to improve efficiency, multiple instruments are routinely used, leading to concerns about bias due to possible violation of the instrumental variable assumptions. To address this concern, we introduce a new class of g-estimators that are guaranteed to remain consistent and asymptotically normal for the causal effect of interest provided that a set of at least $\gamma$ out of $K$ candidate instruments are valid, for $\gamma\leq K$ set by the analyst ex ante, without necessarily knowing the identities of the valid and invalid instruments. We provide formal semiparametric efficiency theory supporting our results. Both simulation studies and applications to the UK Biobank data demonstrate the superior empirical performance of our estimators compared to competing methods.
This paper reports on a follow-up study of the work reported in Sakai, which explored suitable evaluation measures for ordinal quantification tasks. More specifically, the present study defines and evaluates, in addition to the quantification measures considered earlier, a few variants of an ordinal quantification measure called Root Normalised Order-aware Divergence (RNOD), as well as a measure which we call Divergence based on Kendall's $\tau$ (DNKT). The RNOD variants represent alternative design choices based on the idea of Sakai's Distance-Weighted sum of squares (DW), while DNKT is designed to ensure that the system's estimated distribution over classes is faithful to the target priorities over classes. As this Priority Preserving Property (PPP) of DNKT may be useful in some applications, we also consider combining some of the existing quantification measures with DNKT. Our experiments with eight ordinal quantification data sets suggest that the variants of RNOD do not offer any benefit over the original RNOD at least in terms of system ranking consistency, i.e., robustness of the system ranking to the choice of test data. Of all ordinal quantification measures considered in this study (including Normalised Match Distance, a.k.a. Earth Mover's Distance), RNOD is the most robust measure overall. Hence the design choice of RNOD is a good one from this viewpoint. Also, DNKT is the worst performer in terms of system ranking consistency. Hence, if DNKT seems appropriate for a task, sample size design should take its statistical instability into account.
We present a novel static analysis technique to derive higher moments for program variables for a large class of probabilistic loops with potentially uncountable state spaces. Our approach is fully automatic, meaning it does not rely on externally provided invariants or templates. We employ algebraic techniques based on linear recurrences and introduce program transformations to simplify probabilistic programs while preserving their statistical properties. We develop power reduction techniques to further simplify the polynomial arithmetic of probabilistic programs and define the theory of moment-computable probabilistic loops for which higher moments can precisely be computed. Our work has applications towards recovering probability distributions of random variables and computing tail probabilities. The empirical evaluation of our results demonstrates the applicability of our work on many challenging examples.
Deep Learning has implemented a wide range of applications and has become increasingly popular in recent years. The goal of multimodal deep learning is to create models that can process and link information using various modalities. Despite the extensive development made for unimodal learning, it still cannot cover all the aspects of human learning. Multimodal learning helps to understand and analyze better when various senses are engaged in the processing of information. This paper focuses on multiple types of modalities, i.e., image, video, text, audio, body gestures, facial expressions, and physiological signals. Detailed analysis of past and current baseline approaches and an in-depth study of recent advancements in multimodal deep learning applications has been provided. A fine-grained taxonomy of various multimodal deep learning applications is proposed, elaborating on different applications in more depth. Architectures and datasets used in these applications are also discussed, along with their evaluation metrics. Last, main issues are highlighted separately for each domain along with their possible future research directions.
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