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Detecting anomalies in multivariate time series(MTS) data plays an important role in many domains. The abnormal values could indicate events, medical abnormalities,cyber-attacks, or faulty devices which if left undetected could lead to significant loss of resources, capital, or human lives. In this paper, we propose a novel and innovative approach to anomaly detection called Bayesian State-Space Anomaly Detection(BSSAD). The BSSAD consists of two modules: the neural network module and the Bayesian state-space module. The design of our approach combines the strength of Bayesian state-space algorithms in predicting the next state and the effectiveness of recurrent neural networks and autoencoders in understanding the relationship between the data to achieve high accuracy in detecting anomalies. The modular design of our approach allows flexibility in implementation with the option of changing the parameters of the Bayesian state-space models or swap-ping neural network algorithms to achieve different levels of performance. In particular, we focus on using Bayesian state-space models of particle filters and ensemble Kalman filters. We conducted extensive experiments on five different datasets. The experimental results show the superior performance of our model over baselines, achieving an F1-score greater than 0.95. In addition, we also propose using a metric called MatthewCorrelation Coefficient (MCC) to obtain more comprehensive information about the accuracy of anomaly detection.

We consider the estimation of two-sample integral functionals, of the type that occur naturally, for example, when the object of interest is a divergence between unknown probability densities. Our first main result is that, in wide generality, a weighted nearest neighbour estimator is efficient, in the sense of achieving the local asymptotic minimax lower bound. Moreover, we also prove a corresponding central limit theorem, which facilitates the construction of asymptotically valid confidence intervals for the functional, having asymptotically minimal width. One interesting consequence of our results is the discovery that, for certain functionals, the worst-case performance of our estimator may improve on that of the natural `oracle' estimator, which is given access to the values of the unknown densities at the observations.

Distributed stochastic optimization has drawn great attention recently due to its effectiveness in solving large-scale machine learning problems. However, despite that numerous algorithms have been proposed with empirical successes, their theoretical guarantees are restrictive and rely on certain boundedness conditions on the stochastic gradients, varying from uniform boundedness to the relaxed growth condition. In addition, how to characterize the data heterogeneity among the agents and its impacts on the algorithmic performance remains challenging. In light of such motivations, we revisit the classical FedAvg algorithm for solving the distributed stochastic optimization problem and establish the convergence results under only a mild variance condition on the stochastic gradients for smooth nonconvex objective functions. Almost sure convergence to a stationary point is also established under the condition. Moreover, we discuss a more informative measurement for data heterogeneity as well as its implications.

Specification inference techniques aim at (automatically) inferring a set of assertions that capture the exhibited software behaviour by generating and filtering assertions through dynamic test executions and mutation testing. Although powerful, such techniques are computationally expensive due to a large number of assertions, test cases and mutated versions that need to be executed. To overcome this issue, we demonstrate that a small subset, i.e., 12.95% of the mutants used by mutation testing tools is sufficient for assertion inference, this subset is significantly different, i.e., 71.59% different from the subsuming mutant set that is frequently cited by mutation testing literature, and can be statically approximated through a learning based method. In particular, we propose AIMS, an approach that selects Assertion Inferring Mutants, i.e., a set of mutants that are well-suited for assertion inference, with 0.58 MCC, 0.79 Precision, and 0.49 Recall. We evaluate AIMS on 46 programs and demonstrate that it has comparable inference capabilities with full mutation analysis (misses 12.49% of assertions) while significantly limiting execution cost (runs 46.29 times faster). A comparison with randomly selected sets of mutants, shows the superiority of AIMS by inferring 36% more assertions while requiring approximately equal amount of execution time. We also show that AIMS 's inferring capabilities are almost complete as it infers 96.15% of ground truth assertions, (i.e., a complete set of assertions that were manually constructed) while Random Mutant Selection infers 19.23% of them. More importantly, AIMS enables assertion inference techniques to scale on subjects where full mutation testing is prohibitively expensive and Random Mutant Selection does not lead to any assertion.

The multivariate coefficient of variation (MCV) is an attractive and easy-to-interpret effect size for the dispersion in multivariate data. Recently, the first inference methods for the MCV were proposed by Ditzhaus and Smaga (2022) for general factorial designs covering k-sample settings but also complex higher-way layouts. However, two questions are still pending: (1) The theory on inference methods for MCV is primarily derived for one special MCV variant while there are several reasonable proposals. (2) When rejecting a global null hypothesis in factorial designs, a more in-depth analysis is typically of high interest to find the specific contrasts of MCV leading to the aforementioned rejection. In this paper, we tackle both by, first, extending the aforementioned nonparametric permutation procedure to the other MCV variants and, second, by proposing a max-type test for post hoc analysis. To improve the small sample performance of the latter, we suggest a novel studentized bootstrap strategy and prove its asymptotic validity. The actual performance of all proposed tests and post hoc procedures are compared in an extensive simulation study and illustrated by a real data analysis.

We introduce a new class of spatially stochastic physics and data informed deep latent models for parametric partial differential equations (PDEs) which operate through scalable variational neural processes. We achieve this by assigning probability measures to the spatial domain, which allows us to treat collocation grids probabilistically as random variables to be marginalised out. Adapting this spatial statistics view, we solve forward and inverse problems for parametric PDEs in a way that leads to the construction of Gaussian process models of solution fields. The implementation of these random grids poses a unique set of challenges for inverse physics informed deep learning frameworks and we propose a new architecture called Grid Invariant Convolutional Networks (GICNets) to overcome these challenges. We further show how to incorporate noisy data in a principled manner into our physics informed model to improve predictions for problems where data may be available but whose measurement location does not coincide with any fixed mesh or grid. The proposed method is tested on a nonlinear Poisson problem, Burgers equation, and Navier-Stokes equations, and we provide extensive numerical comparisons. We demonstrate significant computational advantages over current physics informed neural learning methods for parametric PDEs while improving the predictive capabilities and flexibility of these models.

Hyperdimensional computing (HDC) uses binary vectors of high dimensions to perform classification. Due to its simplicity and massive parallelism, HDC can be highly energy-efficient and well-suited for resource-constrained platforms. However, in trading off orthogonality with efficiency, hypervectors may use tens of thousands of dimensions. In this paper, we will examine the necessity for such high dimensions. In particular, we give a detailed theoretical analysis of the relationship among dimensions of hypervectors, accuracy, and orthogonality. The main conclusion of this study is that a much lower dimension, typically less than 100, can also achieve similar or even higher detecting accuracy compared with other state-of-the-art HDC models. Based on this insight, we propose a suite of novel techniques to build HDC models that use binary hypervectors of dimensions that are orders of magnitude smaller than those found in the state-of-the-art HDC models, yet yield equivalent or even improved accuracy and efficiency. For image classification, we achieved an HDC accuracy of 96.88\% with a dimension of only 32 on the MNIST dataset. We further explore our methods on more complex datasets like CIFAR-10 and show the limits of HDC computing.

Modern health care systems are conducting continuous, automated surveillance of the electronic medical record (EMR) to identify adverse events with increasing frequency; however, many events such as sepsis do not have elucidated prodromes (i.e., event chains) that can be used to identify and intercept the adverse event early in its course. Currently, there does not exist reliable framework for discovering or describing causal chains that precede adverse hospital events. Clinically relevant and interpretable results require a framework that can (1) infer temporal interactions across multiple patient features found in EMR data (e.g., labs, vital signs, etc.) and (2) can identify patterns that precede and are specific to an impending adverse event (e.g., sepsis). In this work, we propose a linear multivariate Hawkes process model, coupled with ReLU link function, to recover a Granger Causal (GC) graph with both exciting and inhibiting effects. We develop a scalable two-phase gradient-based method to maximize a surrogate-likelihood and estimate the problem parameters, which is shown to be effective via extensive numerical simulation. Our method is subsequently extended to a data set of patients admitted to an academic level 1 trauma center located in Atalanta, GA, where the estimated GC graph identifies several highly interpretable chains that precede sepsis. Here, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach in learning a GC graph over Sepsis Associated Derangements (SADs), but it can be generalized to other applications with similar requirements.

Time series observations can be seen as realizations of an underlying dynamical system governed by rules that we typically do not know. For time series learning tasks, we need to understand that we fit our model on available data, which is a unique realized history. Training on a single realization often induces severe overfitting lacking generalization. To address this issue, we introduce a general recursive framework for time series augmentation, which we call Recursive Interpolation Method, denoted as RIM. New samples are generated using a recursive interpolation function of all previous values in such a way that the enhanced samples preserve the original inherent time series dynamics. We perform theoretical analysis to characterize the proposed RIM and to guarantee its test performance. We apply RIM to diverse real world time series cases to achieve strong performance over non-augmented data on regression, classification, and reinforcement learning tasks.

Multivariate time series forecasting is extensively studied throughout the years with ubiquitous applications in areas such as finance, traffic, environment, etc. Still, concerns have been raised on traditional methods for incapable of modeling complex patterns or dependencies lying in real word data. To address such concerns, various deep learning models, mainly Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) based methods, are proposed. Nevertheless, capturing extremely long-term patterns while effectively incorporating information from other variables remains a challenge for time-series forecasting. Furthermore, lack-of-explainability remains one serious drawback for deep neural network models. Inspired by Memory Network proposed for solving the question-answering task, we propose a deep learning based model named Memory Time-series network (MTNet) for time series forecasting. MTNet consists of a large memory component, three separate encoders, and an autoregressive component to train jointly. Additionally, the attention mechanism designed enable MTNet to be highly interpretable. We can easily tell which part of the historic data is referenced the most.