Intensive Care Units usually carry patients with a serious risk of mortality. Recent research has shown the ability of Machine Learning to indicate the patients' mortality risk and point physicians toward individuals with a heightened need for care. Nevertheless, healthcare data is often subject to privacy regulations and can therefore not be easily shared in order to build Centralized Machine Learning models that use the combined data of multiple hospitals. Federated Learning is a Machine Learning framework designed for data privacy that can be used to circumvent this problem. In this study, we evaluate the ability of deep Federated Learning to predict the risk of Intensive Care Unit mortality at an early stage. We compare the predictive performance of Federated, Centralized, and Local Machine Learning in terms of AUPRC, F1-score, and AUROC. Our results show that Federated Learning performs equally well as the centralized approach and is substantially better than the local approach, thus providing a viable solution for early Intensive Care Unit mortality prediction. In addition, we show that the prediction performance is higher when the patient history window is closer to discharge or death. Finally, we show that using the F1-score as an early stopping metric can stabilize and increase the performance of our approach for the task at hand.
We analyze to what extent final users can infer information about the level of protection of their data when the data obfuscation mechanism is a priori unknown to them (the so-called ''black-box'' scenario). In particular, we delve into the investigation of two notions of local differential privacy (LDP), namely {\epsilon}-LDP and R\'enyi LDP. On one hand, we prove that, without any assumption on the underlying distributions, it is not possible to have an algorithm able to infer the level of data protection with provable guarantees; this result also holds for the central versions of the two notions of DP considered. On the other hand, we demonstrate that, under reasonable assumptions (namely, Lipschitzness of the involved densities on a closed interval), such guarantees exist and can be achieved by a simple histogram-based estimator. We validate our results experimentally and we note that, on a particularly well-behaved distribution (namely, the Laplace noise), our method gives even better results than expected, in the sense that in practice the number of samples needed to achieve the desired confidence is smaller than the theoretical bound, and the estimation of {\epsilon} is more precise than predicted.
Process design is a creative task that is currently performed manually by engineers. Artificial intelligence provides new potential to facilitate process design. Specifically, reinforcement learning (RL) has shown some success in automating process design by integrating data-driven models that learn to build process flowsheets with process simulation in an iterative design process. However, one major challenge in the learning process is that the RL agent demands numerous process simulations in rigorous process simulators, thereby requiring long simulation times and expensive computational power. Therefore, typically short-cut simulation methods are employed to accelerate the learning process. Short-cut methods can, however, lead to inaccurate results. We thus propose to utilize transfer learning for process design with RL in combination with rigorous simulation methods. Transfer learning is an established approach from machine learning that stores knowledge gained while solving one problem and reuses this information on a different target domain. We integrate transfer learning in our RL framework for process design and apply it to an illustrative case study comprising equilibrium reactions, azeotropic separation, and recycles, our method can design economically feasible flowsheets with stable interaction with DWSIM. Our results show that transfer learning enables RL to economically design feasible flowsheets with DWSIM, resulting in a flowsheet with an 8% higher revenue. And the learning time can be reduced by a factor of 2.
Several proposals have been put forward in recent years for improving out-of-distribution (OOD) performance through mitigating dataset biases. A popular workaround is to train a robust model by re-weighting training examples based on a secondary biased model. Here, the underlying assumption is that the biased model resorts to shortcut features. Hence, those training examples that are correctly predicted by the biased model are flagged as being biased and are down-weighted during the training of the main model. However, assessing the importance of an instance merely based on the predictions of the biased model may be too naive. It is possible that the prediction of the main model can be derived from another decision-making process that is distinct from the behavior of the biased model. To circumvent this, we introduce a fine-tuning strategy that incorporates the similarity between the main and biased model attribution scores in a Product of Experts (PoE) loss function to further improve OOD performance. With experiments conducted on natural language inference and fact verification benchmarks, we show that our method improves OOD results while maintaining in-distribution (ID) performance.
Learning the graphical structure of Bayesian networks is key to describing data-generating mechanisms in many complex applications but poses considerable computational challenges. Observational data can only identify the equivalence class of the directed acyclic graph underlying a Bayesian network model, and a variety of methods exist to tackle the problem. Under certain assumptions, the popular PC algorithm can consistently recover the correct equivalence class by reverse-engineering the conditional independence (CI) relationships holding in the variable distribution. The dual PC algorithm is a novel scheme to carry out the CI tests within the PC algorithm by leveraging the inverse relationship between covariance and precision matrices. By exploiting block matrix inversions we can simultaneously perform tests on partial correlations of complementary (or dual) conditioning sets. The multiple CI tests of the dual PC algorithm proceed by first considering marginal and full-order CI relationships and progressively moving to central-order ones. Simulation studies show that the dual PC algorithm outperforms the classic PC algorithm both in terms of run time and in recovering the underlying network structure, even in the presence of deviations from Gaussianity. Additionally, we show that the dual PC algorithm applies for Gaussian copula models, and demonstrate its performance in that setting.
While machine learning has achieved remarkable results in a wide variety of domains, the training of models often requires large datasets that may need to be collected from different individuals. As sensitive information may be contained in the individual's dataset, sharing training data may lead to severe privacy concerns. Therefore, there is a compelling need to develop privacy-aware machine learning methods, for which one effective approach is to leverage the generic framework of differential privacy. Considering that stochastic gradient descent (SGD) is one of the most commonly adopted methods for large-scale machine learning problems, a decentralized differentially private SGD algorithm is proposed in this work. Particularly, we focus on SGD without replacement due to its favorable structure for practical implementation. Both privacy and convergence analysis are provided for the proposed algorithm. Finally, extensive experiments are performed to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.
In machine learning, the selection of a promising model from a potentially large number of competing models and the assessment of its generalization performance are critical tasks that need careful consideration. Typically, model selection and evaluation are strictly separated endeavors, splitting the sample at hand into a training, validation, and evaluation set, and only compute a single confidence interval for the prediction performance of the final selected model. We however propose an algorithm how to compute valid lower confidence bounds for multiple models that have been selected based on their prediction performances in the evaluation set by interpreting the selection problem as a simultaneous inference problem. We use bootstrap tilting and a maxT-type multiplicity correction. The approach is universally applicable for any combination of prediction models, any model selection strategy, and any prediction performance measure that accepts weights. We conducted various simulation experiments which show that our proposed approach yields lower confidence bounds that are at least comparably good as bounds from standard approaches, and that reliably reach the nominal coverage probability. In addition, especially when sample size is small, our proposed approach yields better performing prediction models than the default selection of only one model for evaluation does.
Traffic systems are multi-agent cyber-physical systems whose performance is closely related to human welfare. They work in open environments and are subject to uncertainties from various sources, making their performance hard to verify by traditional model-based approaches. Alternatively, statistical model checking (SMC) can verify their performance by sequentially drawing sample data until the correctness of a performance specification can be inferred with desired statistical accuracy. This work aims to verify traffic systems with privacy, motivated by the fact that the data used may include personal information (e.g., daily itinerary) and get leaked unintendedly by observing the execution of the SMC algorithm. To formally capture data privacy in SMC, we introduce the concept of expected differential privacy (EDP), which constrains how much the algorithm execution can change in the expectation sense when data change. Accordingly, we introduce an exponential randomization mechanism for the SMC algorithm to achieve the EDP. Our case study on traffic intersections by Vissim simulation shows the high accuracy of SMC in traffic model verification without significantly sacrificing computing efficiency. The case study also shows EDP successfully bounding the algorithm outputs to guarantee privacy.
Federated learning (FL) has been proposed to protect data privacy and virtually assemble the isolated data silos by cooperatively training models among organizations without breaching privacy and security. However, FL faces heterogeneity from various aspects, including data space, statistical, and system heterogeneity. For example, collaborative organizations without conflict of interest often come from different areas and have heterogeneous data from different feature spaces. Participants may also want to train heterogeneous personalized local models due to non-IID and imbalanced data distribution and various resource-constrained devices. Therefore, heterogeneous FL is proposed to address the problem of heterogeneity in FL. In this survey, we comprehensively investigate the domain of heterogeneous FL in terms of data space, statistical, system, and model heterogeneity. We first give an overview of FL, including its definition and categorization. Then, We propose a precise taxonomy of heterogeneous FL settings for each type of heterogeneity according to the problem setting and learning objective. We also investigate the transfer learning methodologies to tackle the heterogeneity in FL. We further present the applications of heterogeneous FL. Finally, we highlight the challenges and opportunities and envision promising future research directions toward new framework design and trustworthy approaches.
This book develops an effective theory approach to understanding deep neural networks of practical relevance. Beginning from a first-principles component-level picture of networks, we explain how to determine an accurate description of the output of trained networks by solving layer-to-layer iteration equations and nonlinear learning dynamics. A main result is that the predictions of networks are described by nearly-Gaussian distributions, with the depth-to-width aspect ratio of the network controlling the deviations from the infinite-width Gaussian description. We explain how these effectively-deep networks learn nontrivial representations from training and more broadly analyze the mechanism of representation learning for nonlinear models. From a nearly-kernel-methods perspective, we find that the dependence of such models' predictions on the underlying learning algorithm can be expressed in a simple and universal way. To obtain these results, we develop the notion of representation group flow (RG flow) to characterize the propagation of signals through the network. By tuning networks to criticality, we give a practical solution to the exploding and vanishing gradient problem. We further explain how RG flow leads to near-universal behavior and lets us categorize networks built from different activation functions into universality classes. Altogether, we show that the depth-to-width ratio governs the effective model complexity of the ensemble of trained networks. By using information-theoretic techniques, we estimate the optimal aspect ratio at which we expect the network to be practically most useful and show how residual connections can be used to push this scale to arbitrary depths. With these tools, we can learn in detail about the inductive bias of architectures, hyperparameters, and optimizers.
Federated learning (FL) is a machine learning setting where many clients (e.g. mobile devices or whole organizations) collaboratively train a model under the orchestration of a central server (e.g. service provider), while keeping the training data decentralized. FL embodies the principles of focused data collection and minimization, and can mitigate many of the systemic privacy risks and costs resulting from traditional, centralized machine learning and data science approaches. Motivated by the explosive growth in FL research, this paper discusses recent advances and presents an extensive collection of open problems and challenges.