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In this study, we delve into the dynamics of Wordle using data analysis and machine learning. Our analysis initially focused on the correlation between the date and the number of submitted results. Due to initial popularity bias, we modeled stable data using an ARIMAX model with coefficient values of 9, 0, 2, and weekdays/weekends as the exogenous variable. We found no significant relationship between word attributes and hard mode results. To predict word difficulty, we employed a Backpropagation Neural Network, overcoming overfitting via feature engineering. We also used K-means clustering, optimized at five clusters, to categorize word difficulty numerically. Our findings indicate that on March 1st, 2023, around 12,884 results will be submitted and the word "eerie" averages 4.8 attempts, falling into the hardest difficulty cluster. We further examined the percentage of loyal players and their propensity to undertake daily challenges. Our models underwent rigorous sensitivity analyses, including ADF, ACF, PACF tests, and cross-validation, confirming their robustness. Overall, our study provides a predictive framework for Wordle gameplay based on date or a given five-letter word. Results have been summarized and submitted to the Puzzle Editor of the New York Times.

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In the interest of interpreting neural NLI models and their reasoning strategies, we carry out a systematic probing study which investigates whether these models capture the crucial semantic features central to natural logic: monotonicity and concept inclusion. Correctly identifying valid inferences in downward-monotone contexts is a known stumbling block for NLI performance, subsuming linguistic phenomena such as negation scope and generalized quantifiers. To understand this difficulty, we emphasize monotonicity as a property of a context and examine the extent to which models capture monotonicity information in the contextual embeddings which are intermediate to their decision making process. Drawing on the recent advancement of the probing paradigm, we compare the presence of monotonicity features across various models. We find that monotonicity information is notably weak in the representations of popular NLI models which achieve high scores on benchmarks, and observe that previous improvements to these models based on fine-tuning strategies have introduced stronger monotonicity features together with their improved performance on challenge sets.

Sepsis requires urgent diagnosis, but research is predominantly focused on Western datasets. In this study, we perform a comparative analysis of two ensemble learning methods, LightGBM and XGBoost, using the public eICU-CRD dataset and a private South Korean St. Mary's Hospital's dataset. Our analysis reveals the effectiveness of these methods in addressing healthcare data imbalance and enhancing sepsis detection. Specifically, LightGBM shows a slight edge in computational efficiency and scalability. The study paves the way for the broader application of machine learning in critical care, thereby expanding the reach of predictive analytics in healthcare globally.

Unsupervised representation learning methods are widely used for gaining insight into high-dimensional, unstructured, or structured data. In some cases, users may have prior topological knowledge about the data, such as a known cluster structure or the fact that the data is known to lie along a tree- or graph-structured topology. However, generic methods to ensure such structure is salient in the low-dimensional representations are lacking. This negatively impacts the interpretability of low-dimensional embeddings, and plausibly downstream learning tasks. To address this issue, we introduce topological regularization: a generic approach based on algebraic topology to incorporate topological prior knowledge into low-dimensional embeddings. We introduce a class of topological loss functions, and show that jointly optimizing an embedding loss with such a topological loss function as a regularizer yields embeddings that reflect not only local proximities but also the desired topological structure. We include a self-contained overview of the required foundational concepts in algebraic topology, and provide intuitive guidance on how to design topological loss functions for a variety of shapes, such as clusters, cycles, and bifurcations. We empirically evaluate the proposed approach on computational efficiency, robustness, and versatility in combination with linear and non-linear dimensionality reduction and graph embedding methods.

In this paper, we study the problem of unsupervised object detection from 3D point clouds in self-driving scenes. We present a simple yet effective method that exploits (i) point clustering in near-range areas where the point clouds are dense, (ii) temporal consistency to filter out noisy unsupervised detections, (iii) translation equivariance of CNNs to extend the auto-labels to long range, and (iv) self-supervision for improving on its own. Our approach, OYSTER (Object Discovery via Spatio-Temporal Refinement), does not impose constraints on data collection (such as repeated traversals of the same location), is able to detect objects in a zero-shot manner without supervised finetuning (even in sparse, distant regions), and continues to self-improve given more rounds of iterative self-training. To better measure model performance in self-driving scenarios, we propose a new planning-centric perception metric based on distance-to-collision. We demonstrate that our unsupervised object detector significantly outperforms unsupervised baselines on PandaSet and Argoverse 2 Sensor dataset, showing promise that self-supervision combined with object priors can enable object discovery in the wild. For more information, visit the project website: //waabi.ai/research/oyster

Deep learning models have been shown to outperform methods that rely on summary statistics, like the power spectrum, in extracting information from complex cosmological data sets. However, due to differences in the subgrid physics implementation and numerical approximations across different simulation suites, models trained on data from one cosmological simulation show a drop in performance when tested on another. Similarly, models trained on any of the simulations would also likely experience a drop in performance when applied to observational data. Training on data from two different suites of the CAMELS hydrodynamic cosmological simulations, we examine the generalization capabilities of Domain Adaptive Graph Neural Networks (DA-GNNs). By utilizing GNNs, we capitalize on their capacity to capture structured scale-free cosmological information from galaxy distributions. Moreover, by including unsupervised domain adaptation via Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD), we enable our models to extract domain-invariant features. We demonstrate that DA-GNN achieves higher accuracy and robustness on cross-dataset tasks (up to $28\%$ better relative error and up to almost an order of magnitude better $\chi^2$). Using data visualizations, we show the effects of domain adaptation on proper latent space data alignment. This shows that DA-GNNs are a promising method for extracting domain-independent cosmological information, a vital step toward robust deep learning for real cosmic survey data.

Recent contrastive representation learning methods rely on estimating mutual information (MI) between multiple views of an underlying context. E.g., we can derive multiple views of a given image by applying data augmentation, or we can split a sequence into views comprising the past and future of some step in the sequence. Contrastive lower bounds on MI are easy to optimize, but have a strong underestimation bias when estimating large amounts of MI. We propose decomposing the full MI estimation problem into a sum of smaller estimation problems by splitting one of the views into progressively more informed subviews and by applying the chain rule on MI between the decomposed views. This expression contains a sum of unconditional and conditional MI terms, each measuring modest chunks of the total MI, which facilitates approximation via contrastive bounds. To maximize the sum, we formulate a contrastive lower bound on the conditional MI which can be approximated efficiently. We refer to our general approach as Decomposed Estimation of Mutual Information (DEMI). We show that DEMI can capture a larger amount of MI than standard non-decomposed contrastive bounds in a synthetic setting, and learns better representations in a vision domain and for dialogue generation.

Graph Neural Networks (GNN) is an emerging field for learning on non-Euclidean data. Recently, there has been increased interest in designing GNN that scales to large graphs. Most existing methods use "graph sampling" or "layer-wise sampling" techniques to reduce training time. However, these methods still suffer from degrading performance and scalability problems when applying to graphs with billions of edges. This paper presents GBP, a scalable GNN that utilizes a localized bidirectional propagation process from both the feature vectors and the training/testing nodes. Theoretical analysis shows that GBP is the first method that achieves sub-linear time complexity for both the precomputation and the training phases. An extensive empirical study demonstrates that GBP achieves state-of-the-art performance with significantly less training/testing time. Most notably, GBP can deliver superior performance on a graph with over 60 million nodes and 1.8 billion edges in less than half an hour on a single machine.

Graph Convolutional Networks (GCNs) have recently become the primary choice for learning from graph-structured data, superseding hash fingerprints in representing chemical compounds. However, GCNs lack the ability to take into account the ordering of node neighbors, even when there is a geometric interpretation of the graph vertices that provides an order based on their spatial positions. To remedy this issue, we propose Geometric Graph Convolutional Network (geo-GCN) which uses spatial features to efficiently learn from graphs that can be naturally located in space. Our contribution is threefold: we propose a GCN-inspired architecture which (i) leverages node positions, (ii) is a proper generalisation of both GCNs and Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs), (iii) benefits from augmentation which further improves the performance and assures invariance with respect to the desired properties. Empirically, geo-GCN outperforms state-of-the-art graph-based methods on image classification and chemical tasks.

In this paper, we propose a deep reinforcement learning framework called GCOMB to learn algorithms that can solve combinatorial problems over large graphs. GCOMB mimics the greedy algorithm in the original problem and incrementally constructs a solution. The proposed framework utilizes Graph Convolutional Network (GCN) to generate node embeddings that predicts the potential nodes in the solution set from the entire node set. These embeddings enable an efficient training process to learn the greedy policy via Q-learning. Through extensive evaluation on several real and synthetic datasets containing up to a million nodes, we establish that GCOMB is up to 41% better than the state of the art, up to seven times faster than the greedy algorithm, robust and scalable to large dynamic networks.

We propose a Bayesian convolutional neural network built upon Bayes by Backprop and elaborate how this known method can serve as the fundamental construct of our novel, reliable variational inference method for convolutional neural networks. First, we show how Bayes by Backprop can be applied to convolutional layers where weights in filters have probability distributions instead of point-estimates; and second, how our proposed framework leads with various network architectures to performances comparable to convolutional neural networks with point-estimates weights. In the past, Bayes by Backprop has been successfully utilised in feedforward and recurrent neural networks, but not in convolutional ones. This work symbolises the extension of the group of Bayesian neural networks which encompasses all three aforementioned types of network architectures now.

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