This paper studies linear time series regressions with many regressors. Weak exogeneity is the most used identifying assumption in time series. Weak exogeneity requires the structural error to have zero conditional expectation given the present and past regressor values, allowing errors to correlate with future regressor realizations. We show that weak exogeneity in time series regressions with many controls may produce substantial biases and even render the least squares (OLS) estimator inconsistent. The bias arises in settings with many regressors because the normalized OLS design matrix remains asymptotically random and correlates with the regression error when only weak (but not strict) exogeneity holds. This bias's magnitude increases with the number of regressors and their average autocorrelation. To address this issue, we propose an innovative approach to bias correction that yields a new estimator with improved properties relative to OLS. We establish consistency and conditional asymptotic Gaussianity of this new estimator and provide a method for inference.
相關內容
Most linear experimental design problems assume homogeneous variance although heteroskedastic noise is present in many realistic settings. Let a learner have access to a finite set of measurement vectors $\mathcal{X}\subset \mathbb{R}^d$ that can be probed to receive noisy linear responses of the form $y=x^{\top}\theta^{\ast}+\eta$. Here $\theta^{\ast}\in \mathbb{R}^d$ is an unknown parameter vector, and $\eta$ is independent mean-zero $\sigma_x^2$-sub-Gaussian noise defined by a flexible heteroskedastic variance model, $\sigma_x^2 = x^{\top}\Sigma^{\ast}x$. Assuming that $\Sigma^{\ast}\in \mathbb{R}^{d\times d}$ is an unknown matrix, we propose, analyze and empirically evaluate a novel design for uniformly bounding estimation error of the variance parameters, $\sigma_x^2$. We demonstrate the benefits of this method with two adaptive experimental design problems under heteroskedastic noise, fixed confidence transductive best-arm identification and level-set identification and prove the first instance-dependent lower bounds in these settings. Lastly, we construct near-optimal algorithms and demonstrate the large improvements in sample complexity gained from accounting for heteroskedastic variance in these designs empirically.
Transformer models, despite their impressive performance, often face practical limitations due to their high computational requirements. At the same time, previous studies have revealed significant activation sparsity in these models, indicating the presence of redundant computations. In this paper, we propose Dynamic Sparsified Transformer Inference (DSTI), a method that radically reduces the inference cost of Transformer models by enforcing activation sparsity and subsequently transforming a dense model into its sparse Mixture of Experts (MoE) version. We demonstrate that it is possible to train small gating networks that successfully predict the relative contribution of each expert during inference. Furthermore, we introduce a mechanism that dynamically determines the number of executed experts individually for each token. DSTI can be applied to any Transformer-based architecture and has negligible impact on the accuracy. For the BERT-base classification model, we reduce inference cost by almost 60%.
We study the task of training regression models with the guarantee of label differential privacy (DP). Based on a global prior distribution on label values, which could be obtained privately, we derive a label DP randomization mechanism that is optimal under a given regression loss function. We prove that the optimal mechanism takes the form of a "randomized response on bins", and propose an efficient algorithm for finding the optimal bin values. We carry out a thorough experimental evaluation on several datasets demonstrating the efficacy of our algorithm.
Regularising the primal formulation of optimal transport (OT) with a strictly convex term leads to enhanced numerical complexity and a denser transport plan. Many formulations impose a global constraint on the transport plan, for instance by relying on entropic regularisation. As it is more expensive to diffuse mass for outlier points compared to central ones, this typically results in a significant imbalance in the way mass is spread across the points. This can be detrimental for some applications where a minimum of smoothing is required per point. To remedy this, we introduce OT with Adaptive RegularIsation (OTARI), a new formulation of OT that imposes constraints on the mass going in or/and out of each point. We then showcase the benefits of this approach for domain adaptation.
This work studies the problem of learning unbiased algorithms from biased feedback for recommendation. We address this problem from a novel distribution shift perspective. Recent works in unbiased recommendation have advanced the state-of-the-art with various techniques such as re-weighting, multi-task learning, and meta-learning. Despite their empirical successes, most of them lack theoretical guarantees, forming non-negligible gaps between theories and recent algorithms. In this paper, we propose a theoretical understanding of why existing unbiased learning objectives work for unbiased recommendation. We establish a close connection between unbiased recommendation and distribution shift, which shows that existing unbiased learning objectives implicitly align biased training and unbiased test distributions. Built upon this connection, we develop two generalization bounds for existing unbiased learning methods and analyze their learning behavior. Besides, as a result of the distribution shift, we further propose a principled framework, Adversarial Self-Training (AST), for unbiased recommendation. Extensive experiments on real-world and semi-synthetic datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of AST.
Recent contrastive representation learning methods rely on estimating mutual information (MI) between multiple views of an underlying context. E.g., we can derive multiple views of a given image by applying data augmentation, or we can split a sequence into views comprising the past and future of some step in the sequence. Contrastive lower bounds on MI are easy to optimize, but have a strong underestimation bias when estimating large amounts of MI. We propose decomposing the full MI estimation problem into a sum of smaller estimation problems by splitting one of the views into progressively more informed subviews and by applying the chain rule on MI between the decomposed views. This expression contains a sum of unconditional and conditional MI terms, each measuring modest chunks of the total MI, which facilitates approximation via contrastive bounds. To maximize the sum, we formulate a contrastive lower bound on the conditional MI which can be approximated efficiently. We refer to our general approach as Decomposed Estimation of Mutual Information (DEMI). We show that DEMI can capture a larger amount of MI than standard non-decomposed contrastive bounds in a synthetic setting, and learns better representations in a vision domain and for dialogue generation.
Triple extraction is an essential task in information extraction for natural language processing and knowledge graph construction. In this paper, we revisit the end-to-end triple extraction task for sequence generation. Since generative triple extraction may struggle to capture long-term dependencies and generate unfaithful triples, we introduce a novel model, contrastive triple extraction with a generative transformer. Specifically, we introduce a single shared transformer module for encoder-decoder-based generation. To generate faithful results, we propose a novel triplet contrastive training object. Moreover, we introduce two mechanisms to further improve model performance (i.e., batch-wise dynamic attention-masking and triple-wise calibration). Experimental results on three datasets (i.e., NYT, WebNLG, and MIE) show that our approach achieves better performance than that of baselines.
Knowledge graph completion aims to predict missing relations between entities in a knowledge graph. While many different methods have been proposed, there is a lack of a unifying framework that would lead to state-of-the-art results. Here we develop PathCon, a knowledge graph completion method that harnesses four novel insights to outperform existing methods. PathCon predicts relations between a pair of entities by: (1) Considering the Relational Context of each entity by capturing the relation types adjacent to the entity and modeled through a novel edge-based message passing scheme; (2) Considering the Relational Paths capturing all paths between the two entities; And, (3) adaptively integrating the Relational Context and Relational Path through a learnable attention mechanism. Importantly, (4) in contrast to conventional node-based representations, PathCon represents context and path only using the relation types, which makes it applicable in an inductive setting. Experimental results on knowledge graph benchmarks as well as our newly proposed dataset show that PathCon outperforms state-of-the-art knowledge graph completion methods by a large margin. Finally, PathCon is able to provide interpretable explanations by identifying relations that provide the context and paths that are important for a given predicted relation.
It is important to detect anomalous inputs when deploying machine learning systems. The use of larger and more complex inputs in deep learning magnifies the difficulty of distinguishing between anomalous and in-distribution examples. At the same time, diverse image and text data are available in enormous quantities. We propose leveraging these data to improve deep anomaly detection by training anomaly detectors against an auxiliary dataset of outliers, an approach we call Outlier Exposure (OE). This enables anomaly detectors to generalize and detect unseen anomalies. In extensive experiments on natural language processing and small- and large-scale vision tasks, we find that Outlier Exposure significantly improves detection performance. We also observe that cutting-edge generative models trained on CIFAR-10 may assign higher likelihoods to SVHN images than to CIFAR-10 images; we use OE to mitigate this issue. We also analyze the flexibility and robustness of Outlier Exposure, and identify characteristics of the auxiliary dataset that improve performance.
Deep neural networks (DNNs) have been found to be vulnerable to adversarial examples resulting from adding small-magnitude perturbations to inputs. Such adversarial examples can mislead DNNs to produce adversary-selected results. Different attack strategies have been proposed to generate adversarial examples, but how to produce them with high perceptual quality and more efficiently requires more research efforts. In this paper, we propose AdvGAN to generate adversarial examples with generative adversarial networks (GANs), which can learn and approximate the distribution of original instances. For AdvGAN, once the generator is trained, it can generate adversarial perturbations efficiently for any instance, so as to potentially accelerate adversarial training as defenses. We apply AdvGAN in both semi-whitebox and black-box attack settings. In semi-whitebox attacks, there is no need to access the original target model after the generator is trained, in contrast to traditional white-box attacks. In black-box attacks, we dynamically train a distilled model for the black-box model and optimize the generator accordingly. Adversarial examples generated by AdvGAN on different target models have high attack success rate under state-of-the-art defenses compared to other attacks. Our attack has placed the first with 92.76% accuracy on a public MNIST black-box attack challenge.
注冊地址： 北京市海淀區羊坊店路18號2幢3層301-191