A crucial challenge for solving problems in conflict research is in leveraging the semi-supervised nature of the data that arise. Observed response data such as counts of battle deaths over time indicate latent processes of interest such as intensity and duration of conflicts, but defining and labeling instances of these unobserved processes requires nuance and imprecision. The availability of such labels, however, would make it possible to study the effect of intervention-related predictors - such as ceasefires - directly on conflict dynamics (e.g., latent intensity) rather than through an intermediate proxy like observed counts of battle deaths. Motivated by this problem and the new availability of the ETH-PRIO Civil Conflict Ceasefires data set, we propose a Bayesian autoregressive (AR) hidden Markov model (HMM) framework as a sufficiently flexible machine learning approach for semi-supervised regime labeling with uncertainty quantification. We motivate our approach by illustrating the way it can be used to study the role that ceasefires play in shaping conflict dynamics. This ceasefires data set is the first systematic and globally comprehensive data on ceasefires, and our work is the first to analyze this new data and to explore the effect of ceasefires on conflict dynamics in a comprehensive and cross-country manner.
It is well known that Newton's method, especially when applied to large problems such as the discretization of nonlinear partial differential equations (PDEs), can have trouble converging if the initial guess is too far from the solution. This work focuses on accelerating this convergence, in the context of the discretization of nonlinear elliptic PDEs. We first provide a quick review of existing methods, and justify our choice of learning an initial guess with a Fourier neural operator (FNO). This choice was motivated by the mesh-independence of such operators, whose training and evaluation can be performed on grids with different resolutions. The FNO is trained using a loss minimization over generated data, loss functions based on the PDE discretization. Numerical results, in one and two dimensions, show that the proposed initial guess accelerates the convergence of Newton's method by a large margin compared to a naive initial guess, especially for highly nonlinear or anisotropic problems.
We study sequential cost-efficient design in a situation where each update of covariates involves a fixed time cost typically considerable compared to a single measurement time. The problem arises from parameter estimation in switching measurements on superconducting Josephson junctions which are components needed in quantum computers and other superconducting electronics. In switching measurements, a sequence of current pulses is applied to the junction and a binary voltage response is observed. The measurement requires a very low temperature that can be kept stable only for a relatively short time, and therefore it is essential to use an efficient design. We use the dynamic programming principle from the mathematical theory of optimal control to solve the optimal update times. Our simulations demonstrate the cost-efficiency compared to the previously used methods.
The consistency of the maximum likelihood estimator for mixtures of elliptically-symmetric distributions for estimating its population version is shown, where the underlying distribution $P$ is nonparametric and does not necessarily belong to the class of mixtures on which the estimator is based. In a situation where $P$ is a mixture of well enough separated but nonparametric distributions it is shown that the components of the population version of the estimator correspond to the well separated components of $P$. This provides some theoretical justification for the use of such estimators for cluster analysis in case that $P$ has well separated subpopulations even if these subpopulations differ from what the mixture model assumes.
Motivation: Identification of genomic, molecular and clinical markers prognostic of patient survival is important for developing personalized disease prevention, diagnostic and treatment approaches. Modern omics technologies have made it possible to investigate the prognostic impact of markers at multiple molecular levels, including genomics, epigenomics, transcriptomics, proteomics and metabolomics, and how these potential risk factors complement clinical characterization of patient outcomes for survival prognosis. However, the massive sizes of the omics data sets, along with their correlation structures, pose challenges for studying relationships between the molecular information and patients' survival outcomes. Results: We present a general workflow for survival analysis that is applicable to high-dimensional omics data as inputs when identifying survival-associated features and validating survival models. In particular, we focus on the commonly used Cox-type penalized regressions and hierarchical Bayesian models for feature selection in survival analysis, which are are especially useful for high-dimensional data, but the framework is applicable more generally. Availability and implementation: A step-by-step R tutorial using The Cancer Genome Atlas survival and omics data for the execution and evaluation of survival models has been made available at //ocbe-uio.github.io/survomics/survomics.html.
The morphology of nanostructured materials exhibiting a polydisperse porous space, such as aerogels, is very open porous and fine grained. Therefore, a simulation of the deformation of a large aerogel structure resolving the nanostructure would be extremely expensive. Thus, multi-scale or homogenization approaches have to be considered. Here, a computational scale bridging approach based on the FE$^2$ method is suggested, where the macroscopic scale is discretized using finite elements while the microstructure of the open-porous material is resolved as a network of Euler-Bernoulli beams. Here, the beam frame based RVEs (representative volume elements) have pores whose size distribution follows the measured values for a specific material. This is a well-known approach to model aerogel structures. For the computational homogenization, an approach to average the first Piola-Kirchhoff stresses in a beam frame by neglecting rotational moments is suggested. To further overcome the computationally most expensive part in the homogenization method, that is, solving the RVEs and averaging their stress fields, a surrogate model is introduced based on neural networks. The networks input is the localized deformation gradient on the macroscopic scale and its output is the averaged stress for the specific material. It is trained on data generated by the beam frame based approach. The effiency and robustness of both homogenization approaches is shown numerically, the approximation properties of the surrogate model is verified for different macroscopic problems and discretizations. Different (Quasi-)Newton solvers are considered on the macroscopic scale and compared with respect to their convergence properties.
Safe and reliable disclosure of information from confidential data is a challenging statistical problem. A common approach considers the generation of synthetic data, to be disclosed instead of the original data. Efficient approaches ought to deal with the trade-off between reliability and confidentiality of the released data. Ultimately, the aim is to be able to reproduce as accurately as possible statistical analysis of the original data using the synthetic one. Bayesian networks is a model-based approach that can be used to parsimoniously estimate the underlying distribution of the original data and generate synthetic datasets. These ought to not only approximate the results of analyses with the original data but also robustly quantify the uncertainty involved in the approximation. This paper proposes a fully Bayesian approach to generate and analyze synthetic data based on the posterior predictive distribution of statistics of the synthetic data, allowing for efficient uncertainty quantification. The methodology makes use of probability properties of the model to devise a computationally efficient algorithm to obtain the target predictive distributions via Monte Carlo. Model parsimony is handled by proposing a general class of penalizing priors for Bayesian network models. Finally, the efficiency and applicability of the proposed methodology is empirically investigated through simulated and real examples.
This paper presents a method for thematic agreement assessment of geospatial data products of different semantics and spatial granularities, which may be affected by spatial offsets between test and reference data. The proposed method uses a multi-scale framework allowing for a probabilistic evaluation whether thematic disagreement between datasets is induced by spatial offsets due to different nature of the datasets or not. We test our method using real-estate derived settlement locations and remote-sensing derived building footprint data.
Selecting an evaluation metric is fundamental to model development, but uncertainty remains about when certain metrics are preferable and why. This paper introduces the concept of resolving power to describe the ability of an evaluation metric to distinguish between binary classifiers of similar quality. This ability depends on two attributes: 1. The metric's response to improvements in classifier quality (its signal), and 2. The metric's sampling variability (its noise). The paper defines resolving power generically as a metric's sampling uncertainty scaled by its signal. The primary application of resolving power is to assess threshold-free evaluation metrics, such as the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and the area under the precision-recall curve (AUPRC). A simulation study compares the AUROC and the AUPRC in a variety of contexts. It finds that the AUROC generally has greater resolving power, but that the AUPRC is better when searching among high-quality classifiers applied to low prevalence outcomes. The paper concludes by proposing an empirical method to estimate resolving power that can be applied to any dataset and any initial classification model.
Heuristic tools from statistical physics have been used in the past to locate the phase transitions and compute the optimal learning and generalization errors in the teacher-student scenario in multi-layer neural networks. In this contribution, we provide a rigorous justification of these approaches for a two-layers neural network model called the committee machine. We also introduce a version of the approximate message passing (AMP) algorithm for the committee machine that allows to perform optimal learning in polynomial time for a large set of parameters. We find that there are regimes in which a low generalization error is information-theoretically achievable while the AMP algorithm fails to deliver it, strongly suggesting that no efficient algorithm exists for those cases, and unveiling a large computational gap.
Artificial neural networks thrive in solving the classification problem for a particular rigid task, acquiring knowledge through generalized learning behaviour from a distinct training phase. The resulting network resembles a static entity of knowledge, with endeavours to extend this knowledge without targeting the original task resulting in a catastrophic forgetting. Continual learning shifts this paradigm towards networks that can continually accumulate knowledge over different tasks without the need to retrain from scratch. We focus on task incremental classification, where tasks arrive sequentially and are delineated by clear boundaries. Our main contributions concern 1) a taxonomy and extensive overview of the state-of-the-art, 2) a novel framework to continually determine the stability-plasticity trade-off of the continual learner, 3) a comprehensive experimental comparison of 11 state-of-the-art continual learning methods and 4 baselines. We empirically scrutinize method strengths and weaknesses on three benchmarks, considering Tiny Imagenet and large-scale unbalanced iNaturalist and a sequence of recognition datasets. We study the influence of model capacity, weight decay and dropout regularization, and the order in which the tasks are presented, and qualitatively compare methods in terms of required memory, computation time, and storage.