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Stochastic Differential Equations (SDEs) serve as a powerful modeling tool in various scientific domains, including systems science, engineering, and ecological science. While the specific form of SDEs is typically known for a given problem, certain model parameters remain unknown. Efficiently inferring these unknown parameters based on observations of the state in discrete time series represents a vital practical subject. The challenge arises in nonlinear SDEs, where maximum likelihood estimation of parameters is generally unfeasible due to the absence of closed-form expressions for transition and stationary probability density functions of the states. In response to this limitation, we propose a novel two-step parameter inference mechanism. This approach involves a global-search phase followed by a local-refining procedure. The global-search phase is dedicated to identifying the domain of high-value likelihood functions, while the local-refining procedure is specifically designed to enhance the surrogate likelihood within this localized domain. Additionally, we present two simulation-based approximations for the transition density, aiming to efficiently or accurately approximate the likelihood function. Numerical examples illustrate the efficacy of our proposed methodology in achieving posterior parameter estimation.

We introduce a fine-grained framework for uncertainty quantification of predictive models under distributional shifts. This framework distinguishes the shift in covariate distributions from that in the conditional relationship between the outcome ($Y$) and the covariates ($X$). We propose to reweight the training samples to adjust for an identifiable covariate shift while protecting against worst-case conditional distribution shift bounded in an $f$-divergence ball. Based on ideas from conformal inference and distributionally robust learning, we present an algorithm that outputs (approximately) valid and efficient prediction intervals in the presence of distributional shifts. As a use case, we apply the framework to sensitivity analysis of individual treatment effects with hidden confounding. The proposed methods are evaluated in simulation studies and three real data applications, demonstrating superior robustness and efficiency compared with existing benchmarks.

Modern Out-of-Order (OoO) CPUs are complex systems with many components interleaved in non-trivial ways. Pinpointing performance bottlenecks and understanding the underlying causes of program performance issues are critical tasks to make the most of hardware resources. We provide an in-depth overview of performance bottlenecks in recent OoO microarchitectures and describe the difficulties of detecting them. Techniques that measure resources utilization can offer a good understanding of a program's execution, but, due to the constraints inherent to Performance Monitoring Units (PMU) of CPUs, do not provide the relevant metrics for each use case. Another approach is to rely on a performance model to simulate the CPU behavior. Such a model makes it possible to implement any new microarchitecture-related metric. Within this framework, we advocate for implementing modeled resources as parameters that can be varied at will to reveal performance bottlenecks. This allows a generalization of bottleneck analysis that we call sensitivity analysis. We present Gus, a novel performance analysis tool that combines the advantages of sensitivity analysis and dynamic binary instrumentation within a resource-centric CPU model. We evaluate the impact of sensitivity on bottleneck analysis over a set of high-performance computing kernels.

This essay provides a comprehensive analysis of the optimization and performance evaluation of various routing algorithms within the context of computer networks. Routing algorithms are critical for determining the most efficient path for data transmission between nodes in a network. The efficiency, reliability, and scalability of a network heavily rely on the choice and optimization of its routing algorithm. This paper begins with an overview of fundamental routing strategies, including shortest path, flooding, distance vector, and link state algorithms, and extends to more sophisticated techniques.

We present a new estimator for predicting outcomes in different distributional settings under hidden confounding without relying on instruments or exogenous variables. The population definition of our estimator identifies causal parameters, whose empirical version is plugged into a generative model capable of replicating the conditional law within a test environment. We check that the probabilistic affinity between our proposal and test distributions is invariant across interventions. This work enhances the current statistical comprehension of causality by demonstrating that predictions in a test environment can be made without the need for exogenous variables and without specific assumptions regarding the strength of perturbations or the overlap of distributions.

We prove explicit uniform two-sided bounds for the phase functions of Bessel functions and of their derivatives. As a consequence, we obtain new enclosures for the zeros of Bessel functions and their derivatives in terms of inverse values of some elementary functions. These bounds are valid, with a few exceptions, for all zeros and all Bessel functions with non-negative indices. We provide numerical evidence showing that our bounds either improve or closely match the best previously known ones.

Digital credentials represent a cornerstone of digital identity on the Internet. To achieve privacy, certain functionalities in credentials should be implemented. One is selective disclosure, which allows users to disclose only the claims or attributes they want. This paper presents a novel approach to selective disclosure that combines Merkle hash trees and Boneh-Lynn-Shacham (BLS) signatures. Combining these approaches, we achieve selective disclosure of claims in a single credential and creation of a verifiable presentation containing selectively disclosed claims from multiple credentials signed by different parties. Besides selective disclosure, we enable issuing credentials signed by multiple issuers using this approach.

We present Surjective Sequential Neural Likelihood (SSNL) estimation, a novel method for simulation-based inference in models where the evaluation of the likelihood function is not tractable and only a simulator that can generate synthetic data is available. SSNL fits a dimensionality-reducing surjective normalizing flow model and uses it as a surrogate likelihood function which allows for conventional Bayesian inference using either Markov chain Monte Carlo methods or variational inference. By embedding the data in a low-dimensional space, SSNL solves several issues previous likelihood-based methods had when applied to high-dimensional data sets that, for instance, contain non-informative data dimensions or lie along a lower-dimensional manifold. We evaluate SSNL on a wide variety of experiments and show that it generally outperforms contemporary methods used in simulation-based inference, for instance, on a challenging real-world example from astrophysics which models the magnetic field strength of the sun using a solar dynamo model.

Mendelian randomization uses genetic variants as instrumental variables to make causal inferences about the effects of modifiable risk factors on diseases from observational data. One of the major challenges in Mendelian randomization is that many genetic variants are only modestly or even weakly associated with the risk factor of interest, a setting known as many weak instruments. Many existing methods, such as the popular inverse-variance weighted (IVW) method, could be biased when the instrument strength is weak. To address this issue, the debiased IVW (dIVW) estimator, which is shown to be robust to many weak instruments, was recently proposed. However, this estimator still has non-ignorable bias when the effective sample size is small. In this paper, we propose a modified debiased IVW (mdIVW) estimator by multiplying a modification factor to the original dIVW estimator. After this simple correction, we show that the bias of the mdIVW estimator converges to zero at a faster rate than that of the dIVW estimator under some regularity conditions. Moreover, the mdIVW estimator has smaller variance than the dIVW estimator.We further extend the proposed method to account for the presence of instrumental variable selection and balanced horizontal pleiotropy. We demonstrate the improvement of the mdIVW estimator over the dIVW estimator through extensive simulation studies and real data analysis.

Three types of the Parikh mapping are introduced, namely, alphabetic, alphabetic-basis and basis. Explicit expressions for attractors of the k-th order in bases n >= 8, including countable ones, are found. Properties for the alphabetic, alphabetic-basis and basis Parikh vectors are given at each step of the Parikh mapping. The maximum number of iterations leading to attractors of the k-th order in the basis n is determined.