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We present a new procedure for enhanced variable selection for component-wise gradient boosting. Statistical boosting is a computational approach that emerged from machine learning, which allows to fit regression models in the presence of high-dimensional data. Furthermore, the algorithm can lead to data-driven variable selection. In practice, however, the final models typically tend to include too many variables in some situations. This occurs particularly for low-dimensional data (p<n), where we observe a slow overfitting behavior of boosting. As a result, more variables get included into the final model without altering the prediction accuracy. Many of these false positives are incorporated with a small coefficient and therefore have a small impact, but lead to a larger model. We try to overcome this issue by giving the algorithm the chance to deselect base-learners with minor importance. We analyze the impact of the new approach on variable selection and prediction performance in comparison to alternative methods including boosting with earlier stopping as well as twin boosting. We illustrate our approach with data of an ongoing cohort study for chronic kidney disease patients, where the most influential predictors for the health-related quality of life measure are selected in a distributional regression approach based on beta regression.

In this paper, we study the probabilistic stability analysis of a subclass of stochastic hybrid systems, called the Planar Probabilistic Piecewise Constant Derivative Systems (Planar PPCD), where the continuous dynamics is deterministic, constant rate and planar, the discrete switching between the modes is probabilistic and happens at boundary of the invariant regions, and the continuous states are not reset during switching. These aptly model piecewise linear behaviors of planar robots. Our main result is an exact algorithm for deciding absolute and almost sure stability of Planar PPCD under some mild assumptions on mutual reachability between the states and the presence of non-zero probability self-loops. Our main idea is to reduce the stability problems on planar PPCD into corresponding problems on Discrete Time Markov Chains with edge weights. Our experimental results on planar robots with faulty angle actuator demonstrate the practical feasibility of this approach.

We show how probabilistic numerics can be used to convert an initial value problem into a Gauss--Markov process parametrised by the dynamics of the initial value problem. Consequently, the often difficult problem of parameter estimation in ordinary differential equations is reduced to hyperparameter estimation in Gauss--Markov regression, which tends to be considerably easier. The method's relation and benefits in comparison to classical numerical integration and gradient matching approaches is elucidated. In particular, the method can, in contrast to gradient matching, handle partial observations, and has certain routes for escaping local optima not available to classical numerical integration. Experimental results demonstrate that the method is on par or moderately better than competing approaches.

We consider frequently used scoring rules for right-censored survival regression models such as time-dependent concordance, survival-CRPS, integrated Brier score and integrated binomial log-likelihood, and prove that neither of them is a proper scoring rule. This means that the true survival distribution may be scored worse than incorrect distributions, leading to inaccurate estimation. We prove that, in contrast to these scores, the right-censored log-likelihood is a proper scoring rule, i.e., the highest expected score is achieved by the true distribution. Despite this, modern feed-forward neural-network-based survival regression models are unable to train and validate directly on the right-censored log-likelihood, due to its intractability, and resort to the aforementioned alternatives, i.e., non-proper scoring rules. We therefore propose a simple novel survival regression method capable of directly optimizing log-likelihood using a monotonic restriction on the time-dependent weights, coined SurvivalMonotonic-net (SuMo-net). SuMo-net achieves state-of-the-art log-likelihood scores across several datasets with 20--100$\times$ computational speedup on inference over existing state-of-the-art neural methods, and is readily applicable to datasets with several million observations.

In black-box function optimization, we need to consider not only controllable design variables but also uncontrollable stochastic environment variables. In such cases, it is necessary to solve the optimization problem by taking into account the uncertainty of the environmental variables. Chance-constrained (CC) problem, the problem of maximizing the expected value under a certain level of constraint satisfaction probability, is one of the practically important problems in the presence of environmental variables. In this study, we consider distributionally robust CC (DRCC) problem and propose a novel DRCC Bayesian optimization method for the case where the distribution of the environmental variables cannot be precisely specified. We show that the proposed method can find an arbitrary accurate solution with high probability in a finite number of trials, and confirm the usefulness of the proposed method through numerical experiments.

Prediction models often fail if train and test data do not stem from the same distribution. Out-of-distribution (OOD) generalization to unseen, perturbed test data is a desirable but difficult-to-achieve property for prediction models and in general requires strong assumptions on the data generating process (DGP). In a causally inspired perspective on OOD generalization, the test data arise from a specific class of interventions on exogenous random variables of the DGP, called anchors. Anchor regression models, introduced by Rothenhaeusler et al. (2021), protect against distributional shifts in the test data by employing causal regularization. However, so far anchor regression has only been used with a squared-error loss which is inapplicable to common responses such as censored continuous or ordinal data. Here, we propose a distributional version of anchor regression which generalizes the method to potentially censored responses with at least an ordered sample space. To this end, we combine a flexible class of parametric transformation models for distributional regression with an appropriate causal regularizer under a more general notion of residuals. In an exemplary application and several simulation scenarios we demonstrate the extent to which OOD generalization is possible.

This paper considers the distributed online convex optimization problem with time-varying constraints over a network of agents. This is a sequential decision making problem with two sequences of arbitrarily varying convex loss and constraint functions. At each round, each agent selects a decision from the decision set, and then only a portion of the loss function and a coordinate block of the constraint function at this round are privately revealed to this agent. The goal of the network is to minimize the network-wide loss accumulated over time. Two distributed online algorithms with full-information and bandit feedback are proposed. Both dynamic and static network regret bounds are analyzed for the proposed algorithms, and network cumulative constraint violation is used to measure constraint violation, which excludes the situation that strictly feasible constraints can compensate the effects of violated constraints. In particular, we show that the proposed algorithms achieve $\mathcal{O}(T^{\max\{\kappa,1-\kappa\}})$ static network regret and $\mathcal{O}(T^{1-\kappa/2})$ network cumulative constraint violation, where $T$ is the time horizon and $\kappa\in(0,1)$ is a user-defined trade-off parameter. Moreover, if the loss functions are strongly convex, then the static network regret bound can be reduced to $\mathcal{O}(T^{\kappa})$. Finally, numerical simulations are provided to illustrate the effectiveness of the theoretical results.

Adversarial robustness has become a topic of growing interest in machine learning since it was observed that neural networks tend to be brittle. We propose an information-geometric formulation of adversarial defense and introduce FIRE, a new Fisher-Rao regularization for the categorical cross-entropy loss, which is based on the geodesic distance between the softmax outputs corresponding to natural and perturbed input features. Based on the information-geometric properties of the class of softmax distributions, we derive an explicit characterization of the Fisher-Rao Distance (FRD) for the binary and multiclass cases, and draw some interesting properties as well as connections with standard regularization metrics. Furthermore, for a simple linear and Gaussian model, we show that all Pareto-optimal points in the accuracy-robustness region can be reached by FIRE while other state-of-the-art methods fail. Empirically, we evaluate the performance of various classifiers trained with the proposed loss on standard datasets, showing up to a simultaneous 1\% of improvement in terms of clean and robust performances while reducing the training time by 20\% over the best-performing methods.

Methods that align distributions by minimizing an adversarial distance between them have recently achieved impressive results. However, these approaches are difficult to optimize with gradient descent and they often do not converge well without careful hyperparameter tuning and proper initialization. We investigate whether turning the adversarial min-max problem into an optimization problem by replacing the maximization part with its dual improves the quality of the resulting alignment and explore its connections to Maximum Mean Discrepancy. Our empirical results suggest that using the dual formulation for the restricted family of linear discriminators results in a more stable convergence to a desirable solution when compared with the performance of a primal min-max GAN-like objective and an MMD objective under the same restrictions. We test our hypothesis on the problem of aligning two synthetic point clouds on a plane and on a real-image domain adaptation problem on digits. In both cases, the dual formulation yields an iterative procedure that gives more stable and monotonic improvement over time.

In this paper, we study the optimal convergence rate for distributed convex optimization problems in networks. We model the communication restrictions imposed by the network as a set of affine constraints and provide optimal complexity bounds for four different setups, namely: the function $F(\xb) \triangleq \sum_{i=1}^{m}f_i(\xb)$ is strongly convex and smooth, either strongly convex or smooth or just convex. Our results show that Nesterov's accelerated gradient descent on the dual problem can be executed in a distributed manner and obtains the same optimal rates as in the centralized version of the problem (up to constant or logarithmic factors) with an additional cost related to the spectral gap of the interaction matrix. Finally, we discuss some extensions to the proposed setup such as proximal friendly functions, time-varying graphs, improvement of the condition numbers.