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We aim to assess the impact of a pandemic data point on the calibration of a stochastic multi-population mortality projection model and its resulting projections for future mortality rates. Throughout the paper we put focus on the Li & Lee mortality model, which has become a standard for projecting mortality in Belgium and the Netherlands. We calibrate this mortality model on annual deaths and exposures at the level of individual ages. This type of mortality data is typically collected, produced and reported with a significant delay of -- for some countries -- several years on a platform such as the Human Mortality Database. To enable a timely evaluation of the impact of a pandemic data point we have to rely on other data sources (e.g. the Short-Term Mortality Fluctuations Data series) that swiftly publish weekly mortality data collected in age buckets. To be compliant with the design and calibration strategy of the Li & Lee model, we have to transform the weekly mortality data collected in age buckets to yearly, age-specific observations. Therefore, our paper constructs a protocol to ungroup the deaths and exposures registered in age buckets to individual ages. To evaluate the impact of a pandemic shock, like COVID-19 in the year 2020, we weigh this data point in either the calibration or projection step. Obviously, the more weight we place on this data point, the more impact we observe on future estimated mortality rates and life expectancies. Our paper allows to quantify this impact and provides actuaries and actuarial associations with a framework to generate scenarios of future mortality under various assessments of the pandemic data point.

Individual Treatment Effect (ITE) prediction is an important area of research in machine learning which aims at explaining and estimating the causal impact of an action at the granular level. It represents a problem of growing interest in multiple sectors of application such as healthcare, online advertising or socioeconomics. To foster research on this topic we release a publicly available collection of 13.9 million samples collected from several randomized control trials, scaling up previously available datasets by a healthy 210x factor. We provide details on the data collection and perform sanity checks to validate the use of this data for causal inference tasks. First, we formalize the task of uplift modeling (UM) that can be performed with this data, along with the relevant evaluation metrics. Then, we propose synthetic response surfaces and heterogeneous treatment assignment providing a general set-up for ITE prediction. Finally, we report experiments to validate key characteristics of the dataset leveraging its size to evaluate and compare - with high statistical significance - a selection of baseline UM and ITE prediction methods.

Riemannian manifold Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (RMHMC) is a sampling algorithm that seeks to adapt proposals to the local geometry of the posterior distribution. The specific form of the Hamiltonian used in RMHMC necessitates {\it implicitly-defined} numerical integrators in order to sustain reversibility and volume-preservation, two properties that are necessary to establish detailed balance of RMHMC. In practice, these implicit equations are solved to a non-zero convergence tolerance via fixed-point iteration. However, the effect of these convergence thresholds on the ergodicity and computational efficiency properties of RMHMC are not well understood. The purpose of this research is to elucidate these relationships through numerous case studies. Our analysis reveals circumstances wherein the RMHMC algorithm is sensitive, and insensitive, to these convergence tolerances. Our empirical analysis examines several aspects of the computation: (i) we examine the ergodicity of the RMHMC Markov chain by employing statistical methods for comparing probability measures based on collections of samples; (ii) we investigate the degree to which detailed balance is violated by measuring errors in reversibility and volume-preservation; (iii) we assess the efficiency of the RMHMC Markov chain in terms of time-normalized ESS. In each of these cases, we investigate the sensitivity of these metrics to the convergence threshold and further contextualize our results in terms of comparison against Euclidean HMC. We propose a method by which one may select the convergence tolerance within a Bayesian inference application using techniques of stochastic approximation and we examine Newton's method, an alternative to fixed point iterations, which can eliminate much of the sensitivity of RMHMC to the convergence threshold.

COVID-19 severity is due to complications from SARS-Cov-2 but the clinical course of the infection varies for individuals, emphasizing the need to better understand the disease at the molecular level. We use clinical and multiple molecular data (or views) obtained from patients with and without COVID-19 who were (or not) admitted to the intensive care unit to shed light on COVID-19 severity. Methods for jointly associating the views and separating the COVID-19 groups (i.e., one-step methods) have focused on linear relationships. The relationships between the views and COVID-19 patient groups, however, are too complex to be understood solely by linear methods. Existing nonlinear one-step methods cannot be used to identify signatures to aid in our understanding of the complexity of the disease. We propose Deep IDA (Integrative Discriminant Analysis) to address analytical challenges in our problem of interest. Deep IDA learns nonlinear projections of two or more views that maximally associate the views and separate the classes in each view, and permits feature ranking for interpretable findings. Our applications demonstrate that Deep IDA has competitive classification rates compared to other state-of-the-art methods and is able to identify molecular signatures that facilitate an understanding of COVID-19 severity.

In December 2019, a novel virus called COVID-19 had caused an enormous number of causalities to date. The battle with the novel Coronavirus is baffling and horrifying after the Spanish Flu 2019. While the front-line doctors and medical researchers have made significant progress in controlling the spread of the highly contiguous virus, technology has also proved its significance in the battle. Moreover, Artificial Intelligence has been adopted in many medical applications to diagnose many diseases, even baffling experienced doctors. Therefore, this survey paper explores the methodologies proposed that can aid doctors and researchers in early and inexpensive methods of diagnosis of the disease. Most developing countries have difficulties carrying out tests using the conventional manner, but a significant way can be adopted with Machine and Deep Learning. On the other hand, the access to different types of medical images has motivated the researchers. As a result, a mammoth number of techniques are proposed. This paper first details the background knowledge of the conventional methods in the Artificial Intelligence domain. Following that, we gather the commonly used datasets and their use cases to date. In addition, we also show the percentage of researchers adopting Machine Learning over Deep Learning. Thus we provide a thorough analysis of this scenario. Lastly, in the research challenges, we elaborate on the problems faced in COVID-19 research, and we address the issues with our understanding to build a bright and healthy environment.

Meta-regression is often used to form hypotheses about what is associated with heterogeneity in a meta-analysis and to estimate the extent to which effects can vary between cohorts and other distinguishing factors. However, study-level variables, called moderators, that are available and used in the meta-regression analysis will rarely explain all of the heterogeneity. Therefore, measuring and trying to understand residual heterogeneity is still important in a meta-regression, although it is not clear how some heterogeneity measures should be used in the meta-regression context. The coefficient of variation, and its variants, are useful measures of relative heterogeneity. We consider these measures in the context of meta-regression which allows researchers to investigate heterogeneity at different levels of the moderator and also average relative heterogeneity overall. We also provide CIs for the measures and our simulation studies show that these intervals have good coverage properties. We recommend that these measures and corresponding intervals could provide useful insights into moderators that may be contributing to the presence of heterogeneity in a meta-analysis and lead to a better understanding of estimated mean effects.

As of December 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic has infected over 75 million people, making it the deadliest pandemic in modern history. This study develops a novel compartmental epidemiological model specific to the SARS-CoV-2 virus and analyzes the effect of common preventative measures such as testing, quarantine, social distancing, and vaccination. By accounting for the most prevalent interventions that have been enacted to minimize the spread of the virus, the model establishes a paramount foundation for future mathematical modeling of COVID-19 and other modern pandemics. Specifically, the model expands on the classic SIR model and introduces separate compartments for individuals who are in the incubation period, asymptomatic, tested-positive, quarantined, vaccinated, or deceased. It also accounts for variable infection, testing, and death rates. I first analyze the outbreak in Santa Clara County, California, and later generalize the findings. The results show that, although all preventative measures reduce the spread of COVID-19, quarantine and social distancing mandates reduce the infection rate and subsequently are the most effective policies, followed by vaccine distribution and, finally, public testing. Thus, governments should concentrate resources on enforcing quarantine and social distancing policies. In addition, I find mathematical proof that the relatively high asymptomatic rate and long incubation period are driving factors of COVID-19's rapid spread.

One of the major research questions regarding human microbiome studies is the feasibility of designing interventions that modulate the composition of the microbiome to promote health and cure disease. This requires extensive understanding of the modulating factors of the microbiome, such as dietary intake, as well as the relation between microbial composition and phenotypic outcomes, such as body mass index (BMI). Previous efforts have modeled these data separately, employing two-step approaches that can produce biased interpretations of the results. Here, we propose a Bayesian joint model that simultaneously identifies clinical covariates associated with microbial composition data and predicts a phenotypic response using information contained in the compositional data. Using spike-and-slab priors, our approach can handle high-dimensional compositional as well as clinical data. Additionally, we accommodate the compositional structure of the data via balances and overdispersion typically found in microbial samples. We apply our model to understand the relations between dietary intake, microbial samples, and BMI. In this analysis, we find numerous associations between microbial taxa and dietary factors that may lead to a microbiome that is generally more hospitable to the development of chronic diseases, such as obesity. Additionally, we demonstrate on simulated data how our method outperforms two-step approaches and also present a sensitivity analysis.

In this paper, we present a framework that unites obstacle avoidance and deliberate physical interaction for robotic manipulators. As humans and robots begin to coexist in work and household environments, pure collision avoidance is insufficient, as human-robot contact is inevitable and, in some situations, desired. Our work enables manipulators to anticipate, detect, and act on contact. To achieve this, we allow limited deviation from the robot's original trajectory through velocity reduction and motion restrictions. Then, if contact occurs, a robot can detect it and maneuver based on a novel dynamic contact thresholding algorithm. The core contribution of this work is dynamic contact thresholding, which allows a manipulator with onboard proximity sensors to track nearby objects and reduce contact forces in anticipation of a collision. Our framework elicits natural behavior during physical human-robot interaction. We evaluate our system on a variety of scenarios using the Franka Emika Panda robot arm; collectively, our results demonstrate that our contribution is not only able to avoid and react on contact, but also anticipate it.

Knowledge graph embedding aims to learn distributed representations for entities and relations, and is proven to be effective in many applications. Crossover interactions --- bi-directional effects between entities and relations --- help select related information when predicting a new triple, but haven't been formally discussed before. In this paper, we propose CrossE, a novel knowledge graph embedding which explicitly simulates crossover interactions. It not only learns one general embedding for each entity and relation as most previous methods do, but also generates multiple triple specific embeddings for both of them, named interaction embeddings. We evaluate embeddings on typical link prediction tasks and find that CrossE achieves state-of-the-art results on complex and more challenging datasets. Furthermore, we evaluate embeddings from a new perspective --- giving explanations for predicted triples, which is important for real applications. In this work, an explanation for a triple is regarded as a reliable closed-path between the head and the tail entity. Compared to other baselines, we show experimentally that CrossE, benefiting from interaction embeddings, is more capable of generating reliable explanations to support its predictions.