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Recently, Chain-of-Thought (CoT) prompting has delivered success on complex reasoning tasks, which aims at designing a simple prompt like ``Let's think step by step'' or multiple in-context exemplars with well-designed rationales to elicit Large Language Models (LLMs) to generate intermediate reasoning steps. However, the generated rationales often come with mistakes, making unfactual and unfaithful reasoning chains. To mitigate this brittleness, we propose a novel Chain-of-Knowledge (CoK) prompting, where we aim at eliciting LLMs to generate explicit pieces of knowledge evidence in the form of structure triple. This is inspired by our human behaviors, i.e., we can draw a mind map or knowledge map as the reasoning evidence in the brain before answering a complex question. Benefiting from CoK, we additionally introduce a F^2-Verification method to estimate the reliability of the reasoning chains in terms of factuality and faithfulness. For the unreliable response, the wrong evidence can be indicated to prompt the LLM to rethink. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our method can further improve the performance of commonsense, factual, symbolic, and arithmetic reasoning tasks.

In a backdoor attack, an adversary inserts maliciously constructed backdoor examples into a training set to make the resulting model vulnerable to manipulation. Defending against such attacks typically involves viewing these inserted examples as outliers in the training set and using techniques from robust statistics to detect and remove them. In this work, we present a different approach to the backdoor attack problem. Specifically, we show that without structural information about the training data distribution, backdoor attacks are indistinguishable from naturally-occurring features in the data--and thus impossible to "detect" in a general sense. Then, guided by this observation, we revisit existing defenses against backdoor attacks and characterize the (often latent) assumptions they make and on which they depend. Finally, we explore an alternative perspective on backdoor attacks: one that assumes these attacks correspond to the strongest feature in the training data. Under this assumption (which we make formal) we develop a new primitive for detecting backdoor attacks. Our primitive naturally gives rise to a detection algorithm that comes with theoretical guarantees and is effective in practice.

We adopt a maximum-likelihood framework to estimate parameters of a stochastic susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model with contact tracing on a rooted random tree. Given the number of detectees per index case, our estimator allows to determine the degree distribution of the random tree as well as the tracing probability. Since we do not discover all infectees via contact tracing, this estimation is non-trivial. To keep things simple and stable, we develop an approximation suited for realistic situations (contract tracing probability small, or the probability for the detection of index cases small). In this approximation, the only epidemiological parameter entering the estimator is $R_0$. The estimator is tested in a simulation study and is furthermore applied to covid-19 contact tracing data from India. The simulation study underlines the efficiency of the method. For the empirical covid-19 data, we compare different degree distributions and perform a sensitivity analysis. We find that particularly a power-law and a negative binomial degree distribution fit the data well and that the tracing probability is rather large. The sensitivity analysis shows no strong dependency of the estimates on the reproduction number. Finally, we discuss the relevance of our findings.

Since their introduction in Abadie and Gardeazabal (2003), Synthetic Control (SC) methods have quickly become one of the leading methods for estimating causal effects in observational studies in settings with panel data. Formal discussions often motivate SC methods by the assumption that the potential outcomes were generated by a factor model. Here we study SC methods from a design-based perspective, assuming a model for the selection of the treated unit(s) and period(s). We show that the standard SC estimator is generally biased under random assignment. We propose a Modified Unbiased Synthetic Control (MUSC) estimator that guarantees unbiasedness under random assignment and derive its exact, randomization-based, finite-sample variance. We also propose an unbiased estimator for this variance. We document in settings with real data that under random assignment, SC-type estimators can have root mean-squared errors that are substantially lower than that of other common estimators. We show that such an improvement is weakly guaranteed if the treated period is similar to the other periods, for example, if the treated period was randomly selected. While our results only directly apply in settings where treatment is assigned randomly, we believe that they can complement model-based approaches even for observational studies.

Information about action costs is critical for real-world AI planning applications. Rather than rely solely on declarative action models, recent approaches also use black-box external action cost estimators, often learned from data, that are applied during the planning phase. These, however, can be computationally expensive, and produce uncertain values. In this paper we suggest a generalization of deterministic planning with action costs that allows selecting between multiple estimators for action cost, to balance computation time against bounded estimation uncertainty. This enables a much richer -- and correspondingly more realistic -- problem representation. Importantly, it allows planners to bound plan accuracy, thereby increasing reliability, while reducing unnecessary computational burden, which is critical for scaling to large problems. We introduce a search algorithm, generalizing $A^*$, that solves such planning problems, and additional algorithmic extensions. In addition to theoretical guarantees, extensive experiments show considerable savings in runtime compared to alternatives.

Modern language models can imitate complex patterns through few-shot learning, enabling them to complete challenging tasks without fine-tuning. However, imitation can also lead models to reproduce inaccuracies or harmful content if present in the context. We study harmful imitation through the lens of a model's internal representations, and identify two related phenomena: overthinking and false induction heads. The first phenomenon, overthinking, appears when we decode predictions from intermediate layers, given correct vs. incorrect few-shot demonstrations. At early layers, both demonstrations induce similar model behavior, but the behavior diverges sharply at some "critical layer", after which the accuracy given incorrect demonstrations progressively decreases. The second phenomenon, false induction heads, are a possible mechanistic cause of overthinking: these are heads in late layers that attend to and copy false information from previous demonstrations, and whose ablation reduces overthinking. Beyond scientific understanding, our results suggest that studying intermediate model computations could be a promising avenue for understanding and guarding against harmful model behaviors.

We consider the problem of learning a sparse graph underlying an undirected Gaussian graphical model, a key problem in statistical machine learning. Given $n$ samples from a multivariate Gaussian distribution with $p$ variables, the goal is to estimate the $p \times p$ inverse covariance matrix (aka precision matrix), assuming it is sparse (i.e., has a few nonzero entries). We propose GraphL0BnB, a new estimator based on an $\ell_0$-penalized version of the pseudolikelihood function, while most earlier approaches are based on the $\ell_1$-relaxation. Our estimator can be formulated as a convex mixed integer program (MIP) which can be difficult to compute at scale using off-the-shelf commercial solvers. To solve the MIP, we propose a custom nonlinear branch-and-bound (BnB) framework that solves node relaxations with tailored first-order methods. As a by-product of our BnB framework, we propose large-scale solvers for obtaining good primal solutions that are of independent interest. We derive novel statistical guarantees (estimation and variable selection) for our estimator and discuss how our approach improves upon existing estimators. Our numerical experiments on real/synthetic datasets suggest that our method can solve, to near-optimality, problem instances with $p = 10^4$ -- corresponding to a symmetric matrix of size $p \times p$ with $p^2/2$ binary variables. We demonstrate the usefulness of GraphL0BnB versus various state-of-the-art approaches on a range of datasets.

Current statistical methods in differential proteomics analysis generally leave aside several challenges, such as missing values, correlations between peptide intensities and uncertainty quantification. Moreover, they provide point estimates, such as the mean intensity for a given peptide or protein in a given condition. The decision of whether an analyte should be considered as differential is then based on comparing the p-value to a significance threshold, usually 5%. In the state-of-the-art limma approach, a hierarchical model is used to deduce the posterior distribution of the variance estimator for each analyte. The expectation of this distribution is then used as a moderated estimation of variance and is injected directly into the expression of the t-statistic. However, instead of merely relying on the moderated estimates, we could provide more powerful and intuitive results by leveraging a fully Bayesian approach and hence allow the quantification of uncertainty. The present work introduces this idea by taking advantage of standard results from Bayesian inference with conjugate priors in hierarchical models to derive a methodology tailored to handle multiple imputation contexts. Furthermore, we aim to tackle a more general problem of multivariate differential analysis, to account for possible inter-peptide correlations. By defining a hierarchical model with prior distributions on both mean and variance parameters, we achieve a global quantification of uncertainty for differential analysis. The inference is thus performed by computing the posterior distribution for the difference in mean peptide intensities between two experimental conditions. In contrast to more flexible models that can be achieved with hierarchical structures, our choice of conjugate priors maintains analytical expressions for direct sampling from posterior distributions without requiring expensive MCMC methods.

Causal discovery and causal reasoning are classically treated as separate and consecutive tasks: one first infers the causal graph, and then uses it to estimate causal effects of interventions. However, such a two-stage approach is uneconomical, especially in terms of actively collected interventional data, since the causal query of interest may not require a fully-specified causal model. From a Bayesian perspective, it is also unnatural, since a causal query (e.g., the causal graph or some causal effect) can be viewed as a latent quantity subject to posterior inference -- other unobserved quantities that are not of direct interest (e.g., the full causal model) ought to be marginalized out in this process and contribute to our epistemic uncertainty. In this work, we propose Active Bayesian Causal Inference (ABCI), a fully-Bayesian active learning framework for integrated causal discovery and reasoning, which jointly infers a posterior over causal models and queries of interest. In our approach to ABCI, we focus on the class of causally-sufficient, nonlinear additive noise models, which we model using Gaussian processes. We sequentially design experiments that are maximally informative about our target causal query, collect the corresponding interventional data, and update our beliefs to choose the next experiment. Through simulations, we demonstrate that our approach is more data-efficient than several baselines that only focus on learning the full causal graph. This allows us to accurately learn downstream causal queries from fewer samples while providing well-calibrated uncertainty estimates for the quantities of interest.