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The existing methods for trajectory prediction are difficult to describe trajectory of moving objects in complex and uncertain environment accurately. In order to solve this problem, this paper proposes an adaptive trajectory prediction method for moving objects based on variation Gaussian mixture model (VGMM) in dynamic environment (ESATP). Firstly, based on the traditional mixture Gaussian model, we use the approximate variational Bayesian inference method to process the mixture Gaussian distribution in model training procedure. Secondly, variational Bayesian expectation maximization iterative is used to learn the model parameters and prior information is used to get a more precise prediction model. Finally, for the input trajectories, parameter adaptive selection algorithm is used automatically to adjust the combination of parameters. Experiment results perform that the ESATP method in the experiment showed high predictive accuracy, and maintain a high time efficiency. This model can be used in products of mobile vehicle positioning.

We apply reinforcement learning (RL) to robotics. One of the drawbacks of traditional RL algorithms has been their poor sample efficiency. One approach to improve the sample efficiency is model-based RL. In our model-based RL algorithm, we learn a model of the environment, use it to generate imaginary trajectories and backpropagate through them to update the policy, exploiting the differentiability of the model. Intuitively, learning more accurate models should lead to better performance. Recently, there has been growing interest in developing better deep neural network based dynamics models for physical systems, through better inductive biases. We focus on robotic systems undergoing rigid body motion. We compare two versions of our model-based RL algorithm, one which uses a standard deep neural network based dynamics model and the other which uses a much more accurate, physics-informed neural network based dynamics model. We show that, in model-based RL, model accuracy mainly matters in environments that are sensitive to initial conditions. In these environments, the physics-informed version of our algorithm achieves significantly better average-return and sample efficiency. In environments that are not sensitive to initial conditions, both versions of our algorithm achieve similar average-return, while the physics-informed version achieves better sample efficiency. We measure the sensitivity to initial conditions using the finite-time maximal Lyapunov exponent. We also show that, in challenging environments, where we need a lot of samples to learn, physics-informed model-based RL can achieve better average-return than state-of-the-art model-free RL algorithms such as Soft Actor-Critic, by generating accurate imaginary data.

Recent developments in in-situ monitoring and process control in Additive Manufacturing (AM), also known as 3D-printing, allows the collection of large amounts of emission data during the build process of the parts being manufactured. This data can be used as input into 3D and 2D representations of the 3D-printed parts. However the analysis and use, as well as the characterization of this data still remains a manual process. The aim of this paper is to propose an adaptive human-in-the-loop approach using Machine Learning techniques that automatically inspect and annotate the emissions data generated during the AM process. More specifically, this paper will look at two scenarios: firstly, using convolutional neural networks (CNNs) to automatically inspect and classify emission data collected by in-situ monitoring and secondly, applying Active Learning techniques to the developed classification model to construct a human-in-the-loop mechanism in order to accelerate the labeling process of the emission data. The CNN-based approach relies on transfer learning and fine-tuning, which makes the approach applicable to other industrial image patterns. The adaptive nature of the approach is enabled by uncertainty sampling strategy to automatic selection of samples to be presented to human experts for annotation.

Model-based reinforcement learning (RL) is a sample-efficient way of learning complex behaviors by leveraging a learned single-step dynamics model to plan actions in imagination. However, planning every action for long-horizon tasks is not practical, akin to a human planning out every muscle movement. Instead, humans efficiently plan with high-level skills to solve complex tasks. From this intuition, we propose a Skill-based Model-based RL framework (SkiMo) that enables planning in the skill space using a skill dynamics model, which directly predicts the skill outcomes, rather than predicting all small details in the intermediate states, step by step. For accurate and efficient long-term planning, we jointly learn the skill dynamics model and a skill repertoire from prior experience. We then harness the learned skill dynamics model to accurately simulate and plan over long horizons in the skill space, which enables efficient downstream learning of long-horizon, sparse reward tasks. Experimental results in navigation and manipulation domains show that SkiMo extends the temporal horizon of model-based approaches and improves the sample efficiency for both model-based RL and skill-based RL. Code and videos are available at //clvrai.com/skimo

Traffic signal control is an important problem in urban mobility with a significant potential of economic and environmental impact. While there is a growing interest in Reinforcement Learning (RL) for traffic signal control, the work so far has focussed on learning through simulations which could lead to inaccuracies due to simplifying assumptions. Instead, real experience data on traffic is available and could be exploited at minimal costs. Recent progress in offline or batch RL has enabled just that. Model-based offline RL methods, in particular, have been shown to generalize from the experience data much better than others. We build a model-based learning framework which infers a Markov Decision Process (MDP) from a dataset collected using a cyclic traffic signal control policy that is both commonplace and easy to gather. The MDP is built with pessimistic costs to manage out-of-distribution scenarios using an adaptive shaping of rewards which is shown to provide better regularization compared to the prior related work in addition to being PAC-optimal. Our model is evaluated on a complex signalized roundabout showing that it is possible to build highly performant traffic control policies in a data efficient manner.

Vehicle routing problems and other combinatorial optimization problems have been approximately solved by reinforcement learning agents with policies based on encoder-decoder models with attention mechanisms. These techniques are of substantial interest but still cannot solve the complex routing problems that arise in a realistic setting which can have many trucks and complex requirements. With the aim of making reinforcement learning a viable technique for supply chain optimization, we develop new extensions to encoder-decoder models for vehicle routing that allow for complex supply chains using classical computing today and quantum computing in the future. We make two major generalizations. First, our model allows for routing problems with multiple trucks. Second, we move away from the simple requirement of having a truck deliver items from nodes to one special depot node, and instead allow for a complex tensor demand structure. We show how our model, even if trained only for a small number of trucks, can be embedded into a large supply chain to yield viable solutions.

As the demand for autonomous driving increases, it is paramount to ensure safety. Early accident prediction using deep learning methods for driving safety has recently gained much attention. In this task, early accident prediction and a point prediction of where the drivers should look are determined, with the dashcam video as input. We propose to exploit the double actors and regularized critics (DARC) method, for the first time, on this accident forecasting platform. We derive inspiration from DARC since it is currently a state-of-the-art reinforcement learning (RL) model on continuous action space suitable for accident anticipation. Results show that by utilizing DARC, we can make predictions 5\% earlier on average while improving in multiple metrics of precision compared to existing methods. The results imply that using our RL-based problem formulation could significantly increase the safety of autonomous driving.

The advent of artificial intelligence technology paved the way of many researches to be made within air combat sector. Academicians and many other researchers did a research on a prominent research direction called autonomous maneuver decision of UAV. Elaborative researches produced some outcomes, but decisions that include Reinforcement Learning(RL) came out to be more efficient. There have been many researches and experiments done to make an agent reach its target in an optimal way, most prominent are Genetic Algorithm(GA) , A star, RRT and other various optimization techniques have been used. But Reinforcement Learning is the well known one for its success. In DARPHA Alpha Dogfight Trials, reinforcement learning prevailed against a real veteran F16 human pilot who was trained by Boeing. This successor model was developed by Heron Systems. After this accomplishment, reinforcement learning bring tremendous attention on itself. In this research we aimed our UAV which has a dubin vehicle dynamic property to move to the target in two dimensional space in an optimal path using Twin Delayed Deep Deterministic Policy Gradients (TD3) and used in experience replay Hindsight Experience Replay(HER).We did tests on two different environments and used simulations.

Meta-reinforcement learning algorithms can enable robots to acquire new skills much more quickly, by leveraging prior experience to learn how to learn. However, much of the current research on meta-reinforcement learning focuses on task distributions that are very narrow. For example, a commonly used meta-reinforcement learning benchmark uses different running velocities for a simulated robot as different tasks. When policies are meta-trained on such narrow task distributions, they cannot possibly generalize to more quickly acquire entirely new tasks. Therefore, if the aim of these methods is to enable faster acquisition of entirely new behaviors, we must evaluate them on task distributions that are sufficiently broad to enable generalization to new behaviors. In this paper, we propose an open-source simulated benchmark for meta-reinforcement learning and multi-task learning consisting of 50 distinct robotic manipulation tasks. Our aim is to make it possible to develop algorithms that generalize to accelerate the acquisition of entirely new, held-out tasks. We evaluate 6 state-of-the-art meta-reinforcement learning and multi-task learning algorithms on these tasks. Surprisingly, while each task and its variations (e.g., with different object positions) can be learned with reasonable success, these algorithms struggle to learn with multiple tasks at the same time, even with as few as ten distinct training tasks. Our analysis and open-source environments pave the way for future research in multi-task learning and meta-learning that can enable meaningful generalization, thereby unlocking the full potential of these methods.

Recommender systems play a crucial role in mitigating the problem of information overload by suggesting users' personalized items or services. The vast majority of traditional recommender systems consider the recommendation procedure as a static process and make recommendations following a fixed strategy. In this paper, we propose a novel recommender system with the capability of continuously improving its strategies during the interactions with users. We model the sequential interactions between users and a recommender system as a Markov Decision Process (MDP) and leverage Reinforcement Learning (RL) to automatically learn the optimal strategies via recommending trial-and-error items and receiving reinforcements of these items from users' feedbacks. In particular, we introduce an online user-agent interacting environment simulator, which can pre-train and evaluate model parameters offline before applying the model online. Moreover, we validate the importance of list-wise recommendations during the interactions between users and agent, and develop a novel approach to incorporate them into the proposed framework LIRD for list-wide recommendations. The experimental results based on a real-world e-commerce dataset demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed framework.