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Optimization algorithms such as projected Newton's method, FISTA, mirror descent, and its variants enjoy near-optimal regret bounds and convergence rates, but suffer from a computational bottleneck of computing ``projections'' in potentially each iteration (e.g., $O(T^{1/2})$ regret of online mirror descent). On the other hand, conditional gradient variants solve a linear optimization in each iteration, but result in suboptimal rates (e.g., $O(T^{3/4})$ regret of online Frank-Wolfe). Motivated by this trade-off in runtime v/s convergence rates, we consider iterative projections of close-by points over widely-prevalent submodular base polytopes $B(f)$. We first give necessary and sufficient conditions for when two close points project to the same face of a polytope, and then show that points far away from the polytope project onto its vertices with high probability. We next use this theory and develop a toolkit to speed up the computation of iterative projections over submodular polytopes using both discrete and continuous perspectives. We subsequently adapt the away-step Frank-Wolfe algorithm to use this information and enable early termination. For the special case of cardinality-based submodular polytopes, we improve the runtime of computing certain Bregman projections by a factor of $\Omega(n/\log(n))$. Our theoretical results show orders of magnitude reduction in runtime in preliminary computational experiments.

Reliable generalization lies at the heart of safe ML and AI. However, understanding when and how neural networks generalize remains one of the most important unsolved problems in the field. In this work, we conduct an extensive empirical study (20'910 models, 15 tasks) to investigate whether insights from the theory of computation can predict the limits of neural network generalization in practice. We demonstrate that grouping tasks according to the Chomsky hierarchy allows us to forecast whether certain architectures will be able to generalize to out-of-distribution inputs. This includes negative results where even extensive amounts of data and training time never lead to any non-trivial generalization, despite models having sufficient capacity to fit the training data perfectly. Our results show that, for our subset of tasks, RNNs and Transformers fail to generalize on non-regular tasks, LSTMs can solve regular and counter-language tasks, and only networks augmented with structured memory (such as a stack or memory tape) can successfully generalize on context-free and context-sensitive tasks.

A digital twin is a powerful tool that can help monitor and optimize physical assets in real-time. Simply put, it is a virtual representation of a physical asset, enabled through data and simulators, that can be used for a variety of purposes such as prediction, monitoring, and decision-making. However, the concept of digital twin can be vague and difficult to understand, which is why a new concept called "capability level" has been introduced. This concept categorizes digital twins based on their capability and defines a scale from zero to five, with each level indicating an increasing level of functionality. These levels are standalone, descriptive, diagnostic, predictive, prescriptive, and autonomous. By understanding the capability level of a digital twin, we can better understand its potential and limitations. To demonstrate the concepts, we use a modern house as an example. The house is equipped with a range of sensors that collect data about its internal state, which can then be used to create digital twins of different capability levels. These digital twins can be visualized in virtual reality, allowing users to interact with and manipulate the virtual environment. The current work not only presents a blueprint for developing digital twins but also suggests future research directions to enhance this technology. Digital twins have the potential to transform the way we monitor and optimize physical assets, and by understanding their capabilities, we can unlock their full potential.

This article proposes an alternative to the Hosmer-Lemeshow (HL) test for evaluating the calibration of probability forecasts for binary events. The approach is based on e-values, a new tool for hypothesis testing. An e-value is a random variable with expected value less or equal to one under a null hypothesis. Large e-values give evidence against the null hypothesis, and the multiplicative inverse of an e-value is a p-value. Our test uses online isotonic regression to estimate the calibration curve as a `betting strategy' against the null hypothesis. We show that the test has power against essentially all alternatives, which makes it theoretically superior to the HL test and at the same time resolves the well-known instability problem of the latter. A simulation study shows that a feasible version of the proposed eHL test can detect slight miscalibrations in practically relevant sample sizes, but trades its universal validity and power guarantees against a reduced empirical power compared to the HL test in a classical simulation setup.We illustrate our test on recalibrated predictions for credit card defaults during the Taiwan credit card crisis, where the classical HL test delivers equivocal results.

Automated program repair (APR) aims to help developers improve software reliability by generating patches for buggy programs. Although many code language models (CLM) are developed and effective in many software tasks such as code completion, there has been little comprehensive, in-depth work to evaluate CLMs' fixing capabilities and to fine-tune CLMs for the APR task. Firstly, this work is the first to evaluate ten CLMs on four APR benchmarks, which shows that surprisingly, the best CLM, as is, fixes 72% more bugs than the state-of-the-art deep-learning (DL)-based APR techniques. Secondly, one of the four APR benchmarks was created by us in this paper to avoid data leaking for a fair evaluation. Thirdly, it is the first work to fine-tune CLMs with APR training data, which shows that fine-tuning brings 31%-1,267% improvement to CLMs and enables them to fix 46%-164% more bugs than existing DL-based APR techniques. Fourthly, this work studies the impact of buggy lines, showing that CLMs, as is, cannot make good use of the buggy lines to fix bugs, yet fine-tuned CLMs could potentially over-rely on buggy lines. Lastly, this work analyzes the size, time, and memory efficiency of different CLMs. This work shows promising directions for the APR domain, such as fine-tuning CLMs with APR-specific designs, and also raises awareness of fair and comprehensive evaluations of CLMs and calls for more transparent reporting of open-source repositories used in the pre-training data to address the data leaking problem.

Estimating treatment effects conditional on observed covariates can improve the ability to tailor treatments to particular individuals. Doing so effectively requires dealing with potential confounding, and also enough data to adequately estimate effect moderation. A recent influx of work has looked into estimating treatment effect heterogeneity using data from multiple randomized controlled trials and/or observational datasets. With many new methods available for assessing treatment effect heterogeneity using multiple studies, it is important to understand which methods are best used in which setting, how the methods compare to one another, and what needs to be done to continue progress in this field. This paper reviews these methods broken down by data setting: aggregate-level data, federated learning, and individual participant-level data. We define the conditional average treatment effect and discuss differences between parametric and nonparametric estimators, and we list key assumptions, both those that are required within a single study and those that are necessary for data combination. After describing existing approaches, we compare and contrast them and reveal open areas for future research. This review demonstrates that there are many possible approaches for estimating treatment effect heterogeneity through the combination of datasets, but that there is substantial work to be done to compare these methods through case studies and simulations, extend them to different settings, and refine them to account for various challenges present in real data.

This work considers the low-rank approximation of a matrix $A(t)$ depending on a parameter $t$ in a compact set $D \subset \mathbb{R}^d$. Application areas that give rise to such problems include computational statistics and dynamical systems. Randomized algorithms are an increasingly popular approach for performing low-rank approximation and they usually proceed by multiplying the matrix with random dimension reduction matrices (DRMs). Applying such algorithms directly to $A(t)$ would involve different, independent DRMs for every $t$, which is not only expensive but also leads to inherently non-smooth approximations. In this work, we propose to use constant DRMs, that is, $A(t)$ is multiplied with the same DRM for every $t$. The resulting parameter-dependent extensions of two popular randomized algorithms, the randomized singular value decomposition and the generalized Nystr\"{o}m method, are computationally attractive, especially when $A(t)$ admits an affine linear decomposition with respect to $t$. We perform a probabilistic analysis for both algorithms, deriving bounds on the expected value as well as failure probabilities for the $L^2$ approximation error when using Gaussian random DRMs. Both, the theoretical results and numerical experiments, show that the use of constant DRMs does not impair their effectiveness; our methods reliably return quasi-best low-rank approximations.

We focus on the problem of generalizing a causal effect estimated on a randomized controlled trial (RCT) to a target population described by a set of covariates from observational data. Available methods such as inverse propensity sampling weighting are not designed to handle missing values, which are however common in both data sources. In addition to coupling the assumptions for causal effect identifiability and for the missing values mechanism and to defining appropriate estimation strategies, one difficulty is to consider the specific structure of the data with two sources and treatment and outcome only available in the RCT. We propose three multiple imputation strategies to handle missing values when generalizing treatment effects, each handling the multi-source structure of the problem differently (separate imputation, joint imputation with fixed effect, joint imputation ignoring source information). As an alternative to multiple imputation, we also propose a direct estimation approach that treats incomplete covariates as semi-discrete variables. The multiple imputation strategies and the latter alternative rely on different sets of assumptions concerning the impact of missing values on identifiability. We discuss these assumptions and assess the methods through an extensive simulation study. This work is motivated by the analysis of a large registry of over 20,000 major trauma patients and an RCT studying the effect of tranexamic acid administration on mortality in major trauma patients admitted to ICU. The analysis illustrates how the missing values handling can impact the conclusion about the effect generalized from the RCT to the target population.

The world population is anticipated to increase by close to 2 billion by 2050 causing a rapid escalation of food demand. A recent projection shows that the world is lagging behind accomplishing the "Zero Hunger" goal, in spite of some advancements. Socio-economic and well being fallout will affect the food security. Vulnerable groups of people will suffer malnutrition. To cater to the needs of the increasing population, the agricultural industry needs to be modernized, become smart, and automated. Traditional agriculture can be remade to efficient, sustainable, eco-friendly smart agriculture by adopting existing technologies. In this survey paper the authors present the applications, technological trends, available datasets, networking options, and challenges in smart agriculture. How Agro Cyber Physical Systems are built upon the Internet-of-Agro-Things is discussed through various application fields. Agriculture 4.0 is also discussed as a whole. We focus on the technologies, such as Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) which support the automation, along with the Distributed Ledger Technology (DLT) which provides data integrity and security. After an in-depth study of different architectures, we also present a smart agriculture framework which relies on the location of data processing. We have divided open research problems of smart agriculture as future research work in two groups - from a technological perspective and from a networking perspective. AI, ML, the blockchain as a DLT, and Physical Unclonable Functions (PUF) based hardware security fall under the technology group, whereas any network related attacks, fake data injection and similar threats fall under the network research problem group.

Data transmission between two or more digital devices in industry and government demands secure and agile technology. Digital information distribution often requires deployment of Internet of Things (IoT) devices and Data Fusion techniques which have also gained popularity in both, civilian and military environments, such as, emergence of Smart Cities and Internet of Battlefield Things (IoBT). This usually requires capturing and consolidating data from multiple sources. Because datasets do not necessarily originate from identical sensors, fused data typically results in a complex Big Data problem. Due to potentially sensitive nature of IoT datasets, Blockchain technology is used to facilitate secure sharing of IoT datasets, which allows digital information to be distributed, but not copied. However, blockchain has several limitations related to complexity, scalability, and excessive energy consumption. We propose an approach to hide information (sensor signal) by transforming it to an image or an audio signal. In one of the latest attempts to the military modernization, we investigate sensor fusion approach by investigating the challenges of enabling an intelligent identification and detection operation and demonstrates the feasibility of the proposed Deep Learning and Anomaly Detection models that can support future application for specific hand gesture alert system from wearable devices.