We develop methods, based on extreme value theory, for analysing observations in the tails of longitudinal data, i.e., a data set consisting of a large number of short time series, which are typically irregularly and non-simultaneously sampled, yet have some commonality in the structure of each series and exhibit independence between time series. Extreme value theory has not been considered previously for the unique features of longitudinal data. Across time series the data are assumed to follow a common generalised Pareto distribution, above a high threshold. To account for temporal dependence of such data we require a model to describe (i) the variation between the different time series properties, (ii) the changes in distribution over time, and (iii) the temporal dependence within each series. Our methodology has the flexibility to capture both asymptotic dependence and asymptotic independence, with this characteristic determined by the data. Bayesian inference is used given the need for inference of parameters that are unique to each time series. Our novel methodology is illustrated through the analysis of data from elite swimmers in the men's 100m breaststroke. Unlike previous analyses of personal-best data in this event, we are able to make inference about the careers of individual swimmers - such as the probability an individual will break the world record or swim the fastest time next year.
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The approach to analysing compositional data has been dominated by the use of logratio transformations, to ensure exact subcompositional coherence and, in some situations, exact isometry as well. A problem with this approach is that data zeros, found in most applications, have to be replaced to allow the logarithmic transformation. An alternative new approach, called the `chiPower' transformation, which allows data zeros, is to combine the standardization inherent in the chi-square distance in correspondence analysis, with the essential elements of the Box-Cox power transformation. The chiPower transformation is justified because it} defines between-sample distances that tend to logratio distances for strictly positive data as the power parameter tends to zero, and are then equivalent to transforming to logratios. For data with zeros, a value of the power can be identified that brings the chiPower transformation as close as possible to a logratio transformation, without having to substitute the zeros. Especially in the area of high-dimensional data, this alternative approach can present such a high level of coherence and isometry as to be a valid approach to the analysis of compositional data. Furthermore, in a supervised learning context, if the compositional variables serve as predictors of a response in a modelling framework, for example generalized linear models, then the power can be used as a tuning parameter in optimizing the accuracy of prediction through cross-validation. The chiPower-transformed variables have a straightforward interpretation, since they are each identified with single compositional parts, not ratios.
Convex PCA, which was introduced by Bigot et al., is a dimension reduction methodology for data with values in a convex subset of a Hilbert space. This setting arises naturally in many applications, including distributional data in the Wasserstein space of an interval, and ranked compositional data under the Aitchison geometry. Our contribution in this paper is threefold. First, we present several new theoretical results including consistency as well as continuity and differentiability of the objective function in the finite dimensional case. Second, we develop a numerical implementation of finite dimensional convex PCA when the convex set is polyhedral, and show that this provides a natural approximation of Wasserstein geodesic PCA. Third, we illustrate our results with two financial applications, namely distributions of stock returns ranked by size and the capital distribution curve, both of which are of independent interest in stochastic portfolio theory.
Cluster analysis requires many decisions: the clustering method and the implied reference model, the number of clusters and, often, several hyper-parameters and algorithms' tunings. In practice, one produces several partitions, and a final one is chosen based on validation or selection criteria. There exist an abundance of validation methods that, implicitly or explicitly, assume a certain clustering notion. Moreover, they are often restricted to operate on partitions obtained from a specific method. In this paper, we focus on groups that can be well separated by quadratic or linear boundaries. The reference cluster concept is defined through the quadratic discriminant score function and parameters describing clusters' size, center and scatter. We develop two cluster-quality criteria called quadratic scores. We show that these criteria are consistent with groups generated from a general class of elliptically-symmetric distributions. The quest for this type of groups is common in applications. The connection with likelihood theory for mixture models and model-based clustering is investigated. Based on bootstrap resampling of the quadratic scores, we propose a selection rule that allows choosing among many clustering solutions. The proposed method has the distinctive advantage that it can compare partitions that cannot be compared with other state-of-the-art methods. Extensive numerical experiments and the analysis of real data show that, even if some competing methods turn out to be superior in some setups, the proposed methodology achieves a better overall performance.
This paper concerns the numerical simulation of time domain inverse acoustic scattering problems with a point-like scatterer, multiple point-like scatterers or normal size scatterers. Based on the Green's function and the application of the time convolution, direct sampling methods are proposed to reconstruct the location of the scatterer. The proposed methods involve only integral calculus without solving any equations and are easy to implement. Numerical experiments are provided to show the effectiveness and robustness of the methods.
Quantifying the contributions, or weights, of comparisons or single studies to the estimates in a network meta-analysis (NMA) is an active area of research. We extend this to the contributions of paths to NMA estimates. We present a general framework, based on the path-design matrix, that describes the problem of finding path contributions as a linear equation. The resulting solutions may have negative coefficients. We show that two known approaches, called shortestpath and randomwalk, are special solutions of this equation, and both meet an optimization criterion, as they minimize the sum of absolute path contributions. In general, there is an infinite space of solutions, which can be identified using the generalized inverse (Moore-Penrose pseudoinverse). We consider two further special approaches. For complex networks we find that shortestpath is superior with respect to run time and variability, compared to the other approaches, and is thus recommended in practice. The path-weights framework also has the potential to answer more general research questions in network meta-analysis.
Selective inference methods are developed for group lasso estimators for use with a wide class of distributions and loss functions. The method includes the use of exponential family distributions, as well as quasi-likelihood modeling for overdispersed count data, for example, and allows for categorical or grouped covariates as well as continuous covariates. A randomized group-regularized optimization problem is studied. The added randomization allows us to construct a post-selection likelihood which we show to be adequate for selective inference when conditioning on the event of the selection of the grouped covariates. This likelihood also provides a selective point estimator, accounting for the selection by the group lasso. Confidence regions for the regression parameters in the selected model take the form of Wald-type regions and are shown to have bounded volume. The selective inference method for grouped lasso is illustrated on data from the national health and nutrition examination survey while simulations showcase its behaviour and favorable comparison with other methods.
The application of deep learning to non-stationary temporal datasets can lead to overfitted models that underperform under regime changes. In this work, we propose a modular machine learning pipeline for ranking predictions on temporal panel datasets which is robust under regime changes. The modularity of the pipeline allows the use of different models, including Gradient Boosting Decision Trees (GBDTs) and Neural Networks, with and without feature engineering. We evaluate our framework on financial data for stock portfolio prediction, and find that GBDT models with dropout display high performance, robustness and generalisability with reduced complexity and computational cost. We then demonstrate how online learning techniques, which require no retraining of models, can be used post-prediction to enhance the results. First, we show that dynamic feature projection improves robustness by reducing drawdown in regime changes. Second, we demonstrate that dynamical model ensembling based on selection of models with good recent performance leads to improved Sharpe and Calmar ratios of out-of-sample predictions. We also evaluate the robustness of our pipeline across different data splits and random seeds with good reproducibility.
We present a robust deep incremental learning framework for regression tasks on financial temporal tabular datasets which is built upon the incremental use of commonly available tabular and time series prediction models to adapt to distributional shifts typical of financial datasets. The framework uses a simple basic building block (decision trees) to build self-similar models of any required complexity to deliver robust performance under adverse situations such as regime changes, fat-tailed distributions, and low signal-to-noise ratios. As a detailed study, we demonstrate our scheme using XGBoost models trained on the Numerai dataset and show that a two layer deep ensemble of XGBoost models over different model snapshots delivers high quality predictions under different market regimes. We also show that the performance of XGBoost models with different number of boosting rounds in three scenarios (small, standard and large) is monotonically increasing with respect to model size and converges towards the generalisation upper bound. We also evaluate the robustness of the model under variability of different hyperparameters, such as model complexity and data sampling settings. Our model has low hardware requirements as no specialised neural architectures are used and each base model can be independently trained in parallel.
Hashing has been widely used in approximate nearest search for large-scale database retrieval for its computation and storage efficiency. Deep hashing, which devises convolutional neural network architecture to exploit and extract the semantic information or feature of images, has received increasing attention recently. In this survey, several deep supervised hashing methods for image retrieval are evaluated and I conclude three main different directions for deep supervised hashing methods. Several comments are made at the end. Moreover, to break through the bottleneck of the existing hashing methods, I propose a Shadow Recurrent Hashing(SRH) method as a try. Specifically, I devise a CNN architecture to extract the semantic features of images and design a loss function to encourage similar images projected close. To this end, I propose a concept: shadow of the CNN output. During optimization process, the CNN output and its shadow are guiding each other so as to achieve the optimal solution as much as possible. Several experiments on dataset CIFAR-10 show the satisfying performance of SRH.
Deep learning constitutes a recent, modern technique for image processing and data analysis, with promising results and large potential. As deep learning has been successfully applied in various domains, it has recently entered also the domain of agriculture. In this paper, we perform a survey of 40 research efforts that employ deep learning techniques, applied to various agricultural and food production challenges. We examine the particular agricultural problems under study, the specific models and frameworks employed, the sources, nature and pre-processing of data used, and the overall performance achieved according to the metrics used at each work under study. Moreover, we study comparisons of deep learning with other existing popular techniques, in respect to differences in classification or regression performance. Our findings indicate that deep learning provides high accuracy, outperforming existing commonly used image processing techniques.
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