Measuring quality of cancer care delivered by US health providers is challenging. Patients receiving oncology care greatly vary in disease presentation among other key characteristics. In this paper we discuss a framework for institutional quality measurement which addresses the heterogeneity of patient populations. For this, we follow recent statistical developments on health outcomes research and conceptualize the task of quality measurement as a causal inference problem, helping to target flexible covariate profiles that can represent specific populations of interest. To our knowledge, such covariate profiles have not been used in the quality measurement literature. We use different clinically relevant covariate profiles and evaluate methods for layered case-mix adjustments that combine weighting and regression modeling approaches in a sequential manner in order to reduce model extrapolation and allow for provider effect modification. We appraise these methods in an extensive simulation study and highlight the practical utility of weighting methods that warn the investigator when case-mix adjustments are infeasible without some form of extrapolation that goes beyond the support of the data. In a study of cancer-care outcomes, we assess the performance of oncology practices for different profiles that correspond to the types of patients who may receive cancer care. We describe how the methods examined may be particularly important for high-stakes quality measurement, such as public reporting or performance-based payments. These methods may also be applied to support the health care decisions of individual patients and provide a path to personalized quality measurement.
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Medical AI has tremendous potential to advance healthcare by supporting the evidence-based practice of medicine, personalizing patient treatment, reducing costs, and improving provider and patient experience. We argue that unlocking this potential requires a systematic way to measure the performance of medical AI models on large-scale heterogeneous data. To meet this need, we are building MedPerf, an open framework for benchmarking machine learning in the medical domain. MedPerf will enable federated evaluation in which models are securely distributed to different facilities for evaluation, thereby empowering healthcare organizations to assess and verify the performance of AI models in an efficient and human-supervised process, while prioritizing privacy. We describe the current challenges healthcare and AI communities face, the need for an open platform, the design philosophy of MedPerf, its current implementation status, and our roadmap. We call for researchers and organizations to join us in creating the MedPerf open benchmarking platform.
Reward is the driving force for reinforcement-learning agents. This paper is dedicated to understanding the expressivity of reward as a way to capture tasks that we would want an agent to perform. We frame this study around three new abstract notions of "task" that might be desirable: (1) a set of acceptable behaviors, (2) a partial ordering over behaviors, or (3) a partial ordering over trajectories. Our main results prove that while reward can express many of these tasks, there exist instances of each task type that no Markov reward function can capture. We then provide a set of polynomial-time algorithms that construct a Markov reward function that allows an agent to optimize tasks of each of these three types, and correctly determine when no such reward function exists. We conclude with an empirical study that corroborates and illustrates our theoretical findings.
This book develops an effective theory approach to understanding deep neural networks of practical relevance. Beginning from a first-principles component-level picture of networks, we explain how to determine an accurate description of the output of trained networks by solving layer-to-layer iteration equations and nonlinear learning dynamics. A main result is that the predictions of networks are described by nearly-Gaussian distributions, with the depth-to-width aspect ratio of the network controlling the deviations from the infinite-width Gaussian description. We explain how these effectively-deep networks learn nontrivial representations from training and more broadly analyze the mechanism of representation learning for nonlinear models. From a nearly-kernel-methods perspective, we find that the dependence of such models' predictions on the underlying learning algorithm can be expressed in a simple and universal way. To obtain these results, we develop the notion of representation group flow (RG flow) to characterize the propagation of signals through the network. By tuning networks to criticality, we give a practical solution to the exploding and vanishing gradient problem. We further explain how RG flow leads to near-universal behavior and lets us categorize networks built from different activation functions into universality classes. Altogether, we show that the depth-to-width ratio governs the effective model complexity of the ensemble of trained networks. By using information-theoretic techniques, we estimate the optimal aspect ratio at which we expect the network to be practically most useful and show how residual connections can be used to push this scale to arbitrary depths. With these tools, we can learn in detail about the inductive bias of architectures, hyperparameters, and optimizers.
To make deliberate progress towards more intelligent and more human-like artificial systems, we need to be following an appropriate feedback signal: we need to be able to define and evaluate intelligence in a way that enables comparisons between two systems, as well as comparisons with humans. Over the past hundred years, there has been an abundance of attempts to define and measure intelligence, across both the fields of psychology and AI. We summarize and critically assess these definitions and evaluation approaches, while making apparent the two historical conceptions of intelligence that have implicitly guided them. We note that in practice, the contemporary AI community still gravitates towards benchmarking intelligence by comparing the skill exhibited by AIs and humans at specific tasks such as board games and video games. We argue that solely measuring skill at any given task falls short of measuring intelligence, because skill is heavily modulated by prior knowledge and experience: unlimited priors or unlimited training data allow experimenters to "buy" arbitrary levels of skills for a system, in a way that masks the system's own generalization power. We then articulate a new formal definition of intelligence based on Algorithmic Information Theory, describing intelligence as skill-acquisition efficiency and highlighting the concepts of scope, generalization difficulty, priors, and experience. Using this definition, we propose a set of guidelines for what a general AI benchmark should look like. Finally, we present a benchmark closely following these guidelines, the Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus (ARC), built upon an explicit set of priors designed to be as close as possible to innate human priors. We argue that ARC can be used to measure a human-like form of general fluid intelligence and that it enables fair general intelligence comparisons between AI systems and humans.
There has been considerable growth and interest in industrial applications of machine learning (ML) in recent years. ML engineers, as a consequence, are in high demand across the industry, yet improving the efficiency of ML engineers remains a fundamental challenge. Automated machine learning (AutoML) has emerged as a way to save time and effort on repetitive tasks in ML pipelines, such as data pre-processing, feature engineering, model selection, hyperparameter optimization, and prediction result analysis. In this paper, we investigate the current state of AutoML tools aiming to automate these tasks. We conduct various evaluations of the tools on many datasets, in different data segments, to examine their performance, and compare their advantages and disadvantages on different test cases.
We present the problem of selecting relevant premises for a proof of a given statement. When stated as a binary classification task for pairs (conjecture, axiom), it can be efficiently solved using artificial neural networks. The key difference between our advance to solve this problem and previous approaches is the use of just functional signatures of premises. To further improve the performance of the model, we use dimensionality reduction technique, to replace long and sparse signature vectors with their compact and dense embedded versions. These are obtained by firstly defining the concept of a context for each functor symbol, and then training a simple neural network to predict the distribution of other functor symbols in the context of this functor. After training the network, the output of its hidden layer is used to construct a lower dimensional embedding of a functional signature (for each premise) with a distributed representation of features. This allows us to use 512-dimensional embeddings for conjecture-axiom pairs, containing enough information about the original statements to reach the accuracy of 76.45% in premise selection task, only with simple two-layer densely connected neural networks.
An important problem in geostatistics is to build models of the subsurface of the Earth given physical measurements at sparse spatial locations. Typically, this is done using spatial interpolation methods or by reproducing patterns from a reference image. However, these algorithms fail to produce realistic patterns and do not exhibit the wide range of uncertainty inherent in the prediction of geology. In this paper, we show how semantic inpainting with Generative Adversarial Networks can be used to generate varied realizations of geology which honor physical measurements while matching the expected geological patterns. In contrast to other algorithms, our method scales well with the number of data points and mimics a distribution of patterns as opposed to a single pattern or image. The generated conditional samples are state of the art.
Privacy is a major good for users of personalized services such as recommender systems. When applied to the field of health informatics, privacy concerns of users may be amplified, but the possible utility of such services is also high. Despite availability of technologies such as k-anonymity, differential privacy, privacy-aware recommendation, and personalized privacy trade-offs, little research has been conducted on the users' willingness to share health data for usage in such systems. In two conjoint-decision studies (sample size n=521), we investigate importance and utility of privacy-preserving techniques related to sharing of personal health data for k-anonymity and differential privacy. Users were asked to pick a preferred sharing scenario depending on the recipient of the data, the benefit of sharing data, the type of data, and the parameterized privacy. Users disagreed with sharing data for commercial purposes regarding mental illnesses and with high de-anonymization risks but showed little concern when data is used for scientific purposes and is related to physical illnesses. Suggestions for health recommender system development are derived from the findings.
There is a need for systems to dynamically interact with ageing populations to gather information, monitor health condition and provide support, especially after hospital discharge or at-home settings. Several smart devices have been delivered by digital health, bundled with telemedicine systems, smartphone and other digital services. While such solutions offer personalised data and suggestions, the real disruptive step comes from the interaction of new digital ecosystem, represented by chatbots. Chatbots will play a leading role by embodying the function of a virtual assistant and bridging the gap between patients and clinicians. Powered by AI and machine learning algorithms, chatbots are forecasted to save healthcare costs when used in place of a human or assist them as a preliminary step of helping to assess a condition and providing self-care recommendations. This paper describes integrating chatbots into telemedicine systems intended for elderly patient after their hospital discharge. The paper discusses possible ways to utilise chatbots to assist healthcare providers and support patients with their condition.
In this paper, we propose a listwise approach for constructing user-specific rankings in recommendation systems in a collaborative fashion. We contrast the listwise approach to previous pointwise and pairwise approaches, which are based on treating either each rating or each pairwise comparison as an independent instance respectively. By extending the work of (Cao et al. 2007), we cast listwise collaborative ranking as maximum likelihood under a permutation model which applies probability mass to permutations based on a low rank latent score matrix. We present a novel algorithm called SQL-Rank, which can accommodate ties and missing data and can run in linear time. We develop a theoretical framework for analyzing listwise ranking methods based on a novel representation theory for the permutation model. Applying this framework to collaborative ranking, we derive asymptotic statistical rates as the number of users and items grow together. We conclude by demonstrating that our SQL-Rank method often outperforms current state-of-the-art algorithms for implicit feedback such as Weighted-MF and BPR and achieve favorable results when compared to explicit feedback algorithms such as matrix factorization and collaborative ranking.
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