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Linear mixed models (LMMs) are instrumental for regression analysis with structured dependence, such as grouped, clustered, or multilevel data. However, selection among the covariates--while accounting for this structured dependence--remains a challenge. We introduce a Bayesian decision analysis for subset selection with LMMs. Using a Mahalanobis loss function that incorporates the structured dependence, we derive optimal linear coefficients for (i) any given subset of variables and (ii) all subsets of variables that satisfy a cardinality constraint. Crucially, these estimates inherit shrinkage or regularization and uncertainty quantification from the underlying Bayesian model, and apply for any well-specified Bayesian LMM. More broadly, our decision analysis strategy deemphasizes the role of a single "best" subset, which is often unstable and limited in its information content, and instead favors a collection of near-optimal subsets. This collection is summarized by key member subsets and variable-specific importance metrics. Customized subset search and out-of-sample approximation algorithms are provided for more scalable computing. These tools are applied to simulated data and a longitudinal physical activity dataset, and demonstrate excellent prediction, estimation, and selection ability.

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Injecting noise within gradient descent has several desirable features. In this paper, we explore noise injection before computing a gradient step, which is known to have smoothing and regularizing properties. We show that small perturbations induce explicit regularization for simple finite-dimensional models based on the l1-norm, group l1-norms, or nuclear norms. When applied to overparametrized neural networks with large widths, we show that the same perturbations do not work due to variance explosion resulting from overparametrization. However, we also show that independent layer wise perturbations allow to avoid the exploding variance term, and explicit regularizers can then be obtained. We empirically show that the small perturbations lead to better generalization performance than vanilla (stochastic) gradient descent training, with minor adjustments to the training procedure.

Information about action costs is critical for real-world AI planning applications. Rather than rely solely on declarative action models, recent approaches also use black-box external action cost estimators, often learned from data, that are applied during the planning phase. These, however, can be computationally expensive, and produce uncertain values. In this paper we suggest a generalization of deterministic planning with action costs that allows selecting between multiple estimators for action cost, to balance computation time against bounded estimation uncertainty. This enables a much richer -- and correspondingly more realistic -- problem representation. Importantly, it allows planners to bound plan accuracy, thereby increasing reliability, while reducing unnecessary computational burden, which is critical for scaling to large problems. We introduce a search algorithm, generalizing $A^*$, that solves such planning problems, and additional algorithmic extensions. In addition to theoretical guarantees, extensive experiments show considerable savings in runtime compared to alternatives.

Information of interest can often only be extracted from data by model fitting. When the functional form of such a model can not be deduced from first principles, one has to make a choice between different possible models. A common approach in such cases is to minimise the information loss in the model by trying to reduce the number of fit variables (or the model flexibility, respectively) as much as possible while still yielding an acceptable fit to the data. Model selection via the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) provides such an implementation of Occam's razor. We argue that the same principles can be applied to optimise the penalty-strength of a penalised maximum-likelihood model. However, while in typical applications AIC is used to choose from a finite, discrete set of maximum-likelihood models the penalty optimisation requires to select out of a continuum of candidate models and these models violate the maximum-likelihood condition. We derive a generalised information criterion AICp that encompasses this case. It naturally involves the concept of effective free parameters which is very flexible and can be applied to any model, be it linear or non-linear, parametric or non-parametric, and with or without constraint equations on the parameters. We show that the generalised AICp allows an optimisation of any penalty-strength without the need of separate Monte-Carlo simulations. As an example application, we discuss the optimisation of the smoothing in non-parametric models which has many applications in astrophysics, like in dynamical modeling, spectral fitting or gravitational lensing.

Functional linear and single-index models are core regression methods in functional data analysis and are widely used methods for performing regression when the covariates are observed random functions coupled with scalar responses in a wide range of applications. In the existing literature, however, the construction of associated estimators and the study of their theoretical properties is invariably carried out on a case-by-case basis for specific models under consideration. In this work, we provide a unified methodological and theoretical framework for estimating the index in functional linear and single-index models; in the later case the proposed approach does not require the specification of the link function. In terms of methodology, we show that the reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) based functional linear least-squares estimator, when viewed through the lens of an infinite-dimensional Gaussian Stein's identity, also provides an estimator of the index of the single-index model. On the theoretical side, we characterize the convergence rates of the proposed estimators for both linear and single-index models. Our analysis has several key advantages: (i) we do not require restrictive commutativity assumptions for the covariance operator of the random covariates on one hand and the integral operator associated with the reproducing kernel on the other hand; and (ii) we also allow for the true index parameter to lie outside of the chosen RKHS, thereby allowing for index mis-specification as well as for quantifying the degree of such index mis-specification. Several existing results emerge as special cases of our analysis.

The performance of Emergency Departments (EDs) is of great importance for any health care system, as they serve as the entry point for many patients. However, among other factors, the variability of patient acuity levels and corresponding treatment requirements of patients visiting EDs imposes significant challenges on decision makers. Balancing waiting times of patients to be first seen by a physician with the overall length of stay over all acuity levels is crucial to maintain an acceptable level of operational performance for all patients. To address those requirements when assigning idle resources to patients, several methods have been proposed in the past, including the Accumulated Priority Queuing (APQ) method. The APQ method linearly assigns priority scores to patients with respect to their time in the system and acuity level. Hence, selection decisions are based on a simple system representation that is used as an input for a selection function. This paper investigates the potential of an Machine Learning (ML) based patient selection method. It assumes that for a large set of training data, including a multitude of different system states, (near) optimal assignments can be computed by a (heuristic) optimizer, with respect to a chosen performance metric, and aims to imitate such optimal behavior when applied to new situations. Thereby, it incorporates a comprehensive state representation of the system and a complex non-linear selection function. The motivation for the proposed approach is that high quality selection decisions may depend on a variety of factors describing the current state of the ED, not limited to waiting times, which can be captured and utilized by the ML model. Results show that the proposed method significantly outperforms the APQ method for a majority of evaluated settings

This article is concerned with two notions of generalized matroid representations motivated by information theory and computer science. The first involves representations by discrete random variables and the second approximate representations by subspace arrangements. In both cases we show that there is no algorithm that checks whether such a representation exists. As a consequence, the conditional independence implication problem is undecidable, which gives an independent answer to a question in information theory by Geiger and Pearl that was recently also answered by Cheuk Ting Li. These problems are closely related to problems of characterizing the achievable rates in certain network coding problems and of constructing secret sharing schemes. Our methods to approach these problems are mostly algebraic. Specifically, they involve reductions from the uniform word problem for finite groups and the word problem for sofic groups.

Modern approaches to supervised learning like deep neural networks (DNNs) typically implicitly assume that observed responses are statistically independent. In contrast, correlated data are prevalent in real-life large-scale applications, with typical sources of correlation including spatial, temporal and clustering structures. These correlations are either ignored by DNNs, or ad-hoc solutions are developed for specific use cases. We propose to use the mixed models framework to handle correlated data in DNNs. By treating the effects underlying the correlation structure as random effects, mixed models are able to avoid overfitted parameter estimates and ultimately yield better predictive performance. The key to combining mixed models and DNNs is using the Gaussian negative log-likelihood (NLL) as a natural loss function that is minimized with DNN machinery including stochastic gradient descent (SGD). Since NLL does not decompose like standard DNN loss functions, the use of SGD with NLL presents some theoretical and implementation challenges, which we address. Our approach which we call LMMNN is demonstrated to improve performance over natural competitors in various correlation scenarios on diverse simulated and real datasets. Our focus is on a regression setting and tabular datasets, but we also show some results for classification. Our code is available at //github.com/gsimchoni/lmmnn.

Landscape-aware algorithm selection approaches have so far mostly been relying on landscape feature extraction as a preprocessing step, independent of the execution of optimization algorithms in the portfolio. This introduces a significant overhead in computational cost for many practical applications, as features are extracted and computed via sampling and evaluating the problem instance at hand, similarly to what the optimization algorithm would perform anyway within its search trajectory. As suggested in Jankovic et al. (EvoAPPs 2021), trajectory-based algorithm selection circumvents the problem of costly feature extraction by computing landscape features from points that a solver sampled and evaluated during the optimization process. Features computed in this manner are used to train algorithm performance regression models, upon which a per-run algorithm selector is then built. In this work, we apply the trajectory-based approach onto a portfolio of five algorithms. We study the quality and accuracy of performance regression and algorithm selection models in the scenario of predicting different algorithm performances after a fixed budget of function evaluations. We rely on landscape features of the problem instance computed using one portion of the aforementioned budget of the same function evaluations. Moreover, we consider the possibility of switching between the solvers once, which requires them to be warm-started, i.e. when we switch, the second solver continues the optimization process already being initialized appropriately by making use of the information collected by the first solver. In this new context, we show promising performance of the trajectory-based per-run algorithm selection with warm-starting.

Existing weak supervision approaches use all the data covered by weak signals to train a classifier. We show both theoretically and empirically that this is not always optimal. Intuitively, there is a tradeoff between the amount of weakly-labeled data and the precision of the weak labels. We explore this tradeoff by combining pretrained data representations with the cut statistic (Muhlenbach et al., 2004) to select (hopefully) high-quality subsets of the weakly-labeled training data. Subset selection applies to any label model and classifier and is very simple to plug in to existing weak supervision pipelines, requiring just a few lines of code. We show our subset selection method improves the performance of weak supervision for a wide range of label models, classifiers, and datasets. Using less weakly-labeled data improves the accuracy of weak supervision pipelines by up to 19% (absolute) on benchmark tasks.

This paper surveys the machine learning literature and presents machine learning as optimization models. Such models can benefit from the advancement of numerical optimization techniques which have already played a distinctive role in several machine learning settings. Particularly, mathematical optimization models are presented for commonly used machine learning approaches for regression, classification, clustering, and deep neural networks as well new emerging applications in machine teaching and empirical model learning. The strengths and the shortcomings of these models are discussed and potential research directions are highlighted.

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