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Pre-training is prevalent in nowadays deep learning to improve the learned model's performance. However, in the literature on federated learning (FL), neural networks are mostly initialized with random weights. These attract our interest in conducting a systematic study to explore pre-training for FL. Across multiple visual recognition benchmarks, we found that pre-training can not only improve FL, but also close its accuracy gap to the counterpart centralized learning, especially in the challenging cases of non-IID clients' data. To make our findings applicable to situations where pre-trained models are not directly available, we explore pre-training with synthetic data or even with clients' data in a decentralized manner, and found that they can already improve FL notably. Interesting, many of the techniques we explore are complementary to each other to further boost the performance, and we view this as a critical result toward scaling up deep FL for real-world applications. We conclude our paper with an attempt to understand the effect of pre-training on FL. We found that pre-training enables the learned global models under different clients' data conditions to converge to the same loss basin, and makes global aggregation in FL more stable. Nevertheless, pre-training seems to not alleviate local model drifting, a fundamental problem in FL under non-IID data.

The Stereotype Content model (SCM) states that we tend to perceive minority groups as cold, incompetent or both. In this paper we adapt existing work to demonstrate that the Stereotype Content model holds for contextualised word embeddings, then use these results to evaluate a fine-tuning process designed to drive a language model away from stereotyped portrayals of minority groups. We find the SCM terms are better able to capture bias than demographic agnostic terms related to pleasantness. Further, we were able to reduce the presence of stereotypes in the model through a simple fine-tuning procedure that required minimal human and computer resources, without harming downstream performance. We present this work as a prototype of a debiasing procedure that aims to remove the need for a priori knowledge of the specifics of bias in the model.

AI code-recommendation systems (CodeRec), such as Copilot, can assist programmers inside an IDE by suggesting and autocompleting arbitrary code; potentially improving their productivity. To understand how these AI improve programmers in a coding session, we need to understand how they affect programmers' behavior. To make progress, we studied GitHub Copilot, and developed CUPS -- a taxonomy of 12 programmer activities common to AI code completion systems. We then conducted a study with 21 programmers who completed coding tasks and used our labeling tool to retrospectively label their sessions with CUPS. We analyze over 3000 label instances, and visualize the results with timelines and state machines to profile programmer-CodeRec interaction. This reveals novel insights into the distribution and patterns of programmer behavior, as well as inefficiencies and time costs. Finally, we use these insights to inform future interventions to improve AI-assisted programming and human-AI interaction.

Bayesian nonparametric mixture models are common for modeling complex data. While these models are well-suited for density estimation, their application for clustering has some limitations. Miller and Harrison (2014) proved posterior inconsistency in the number of clusters when the true number of clusters is finite for Dirichlet process and Pitman--Yor process mixture models. In this work, we extend this result to additional Bayesian nonparametric priors such as Gibbs-type processes and finite-dimensional representations of them. The latter include the Dirichlet multinomial process and the recently proposed Pitman--Yor and normalized generalized gamma multinomial processes. We show that mixture models based on these processes are also inconsistent in the number of clusters and discuss possible solutions. Notably, we show that a post-processing algorithm introduced by Guha et al. (2021) for the Dirichlet process extends to more general models and provides a consistent method to estimate the number of components.

The utilization of renewable energy technologies, particularly hydrogen, has seen a boom in interest and has spread throughout the world. Ethanol steam reformation is one of the primary methods capable of producing hydrogen efficiently and reliably. This paper provides an in-depth study of the reformulated system both theoretically and numerically, as well as a plan to explore the possibility of converting the system into its conservation form. Lastly, we offer an overview of several numerical approaches for solving the general first-order quasi-linear hyperbolic equation to the particular model for ethanol steam reforming (ESR). We conclude by presenting some results that would enable the usage of these ODE/PDE solvers to be used in non-linear model predictive control (NMPC) algorithms and discuss the limitations of our approach and directions for future work.

In this paper, we consider recent progress in estimating the average treatment effect when extreme inverse probability weights are present and focus on methods that account for a possible violation of the positivity assumption. These methods aim at estimating the treatment effect on the subpopulation of patients for whom there is a clinical equipoise. We propose a systematic approach to determine their related causal estimands and develop new insights into the properties of the weights targeting such a subpopulation. Then, we examine the roles of overlap weights, matching weights, Shannon's entropy weights, and beta weights. This helps us characterize and compare their underlying estimators, analytically and via simulations, in terms of the accuracy, precision, and root mean squared error. Moreover, we study the asymptotic behaviors of their augmented estimators (that mimic doubly robust estimators), which lead to improved estimations when either the propensity or the regression models are correctly specified. Based on the analytical and simulation results, we conclude that overall overlap weights are preferable to matching weights, especially when there is moderate or extreme violations of the positivity assumption. Finally, we illustrate the methods using a real data example marked by extreme inverse probability weights.

Transformers have achieved superior performances in many tasks in natural language processing and computer vision, which also intrigues great interests in the time series community. Among multiple advantages of transformers, the ability to capture long-range dependencies and interactions is especially attractive for time series modeling, leading to exciting progress in various time series applications. In this paper, we systematically review transformer schemes for time series modeling by highlighting their strengths as well as limitations through a new taxonomy to summarize existing time series transformers in two perspectives. From the perspective of network modifications, we summarize the adaptations of module level and architecture level of the time series transformers. From the perspective of applications, we categorize time series transformers based on common tasks including forecasting, anomaly detection, and classification. Empirically, we perform robust analysis, model size analysis, and seasonal-trend decomposition analysis to study how Transformers perform in time series. Finally, we discuss and suggest future directions to provide useful research guidance. To the best of our knowledge, this paper is the first work to comprehensively and systematically summarize the recent advances of Transformers for modeling time series data. We hope this survey will ignite further research interests in time series Transformers.

This paper focuses on the expected difference in borrower's repayment when there is a change in the lender's credit decisions. Classical estimators overlook the confounding effects and hence the estimation error can be magnificent. As such, we propose another approach to construct the estimators such that the error can be greatly reduced. The proposed estimators are shown to be unbiased, consistent, and robust through a combination of theoretical analysis and numerical testing. Moreover, we compare the power of estimating the causal quantities between the classical estimators and the proposed estimators. The comparison is tested across a wide range of models, including linear regression models, tree-based models, and neural network-based models, under different simulated datasets that exhibit different levels of causality, different degrees of nonlinearity, and different distributional properties. Most importantly, we apply our approaches to a large observational dataset provided by a global technology firm that operates in both the e-commerce and the lending business. We find that the relative reduction of estimation error is strikingly substantial if the causal effects are accounted for correctly.

Machine learning plays a role in many deployed decision systems, often in ways that are difficult or impossible to understand by human stakeholders. Explaining, in a human-understandable way, the relationship between the input and output of machine learning models is essential to the development of trustworthy machine-learning-based systems. A burgeoning body of research seeks to define the goals and methods of explainability in machine learning. In this paper, we seek to review and categorize research on counterfactual explanations, a specific class of explanation that provides a link between what could have happened had input to a model been changed in a particular way. Modern approaches to counterfactual explainability in machine learning draw connections to the established legal doctrine in many countries, making them appealing to fielded systems in high-impact areas such as finance and healthcare. Thus, we design a rubric with desirable properties of counterfactual explanation algorithms and comprehensively evaluate all currently-proposed algorithms against that rubric. Our rubric provides easy comparison and comprehension of the advantages and disadvantages of different approaches and serves as an introduction to major research themes in this field. We also identify gaps and discuss promising research directions in the space of counterfactual explainability.

To solve the information explosion problem and enhance user experience in various online applications, recommender systems have been developed to model users preferences. Although numerous efforts have been made toward more personalized recommendations, recommender systems still suffer from several challenges, such as data sparsity and cold start. In recent years, generating recommendations with the knowledge graph as side information has attracted considerable interest. Such an approach can not only alleviate the abovementioned issues for a more accurate recommendation, but also provide explanations for recommended items. In this paper, we conduct a systematical survey of knowledge graph-based recommender systems. We collect recently published papers in this field and summarize them from two perspectives. On the one hand, we investigate the proposed algorithms by focusing on how the papers utilize the knowledge graph for accurate and explainable recommendation. On the other hand, we introduce datasets used in these works. Finally, we propose several potential research directions in this field.