For the purpose of Monte Carlo scenario generation, we propose a graphical model for the joint distribution of wind power and electricity demand in a given region. To conform with the practice in the electric power industry, we assume that point forecasts are provided exogenously, and concentrate on the modeling of the deviations from these forecasts instead of modeling the actual quantities of interest. We find that the marginal distributions of these deviations can have heavy tails, feature which we need to handle before fitting a graphical Gaussian model to the data. We estimate covariance and precision matrices using an extension of the graphical LASSO procedure which allows us to identify temporal and geographical (conditional) dependencies in the form of separate dependence graphs. We implement our algorithm on data publicly available for the Texas grid as managed by ERCOT, and we confirm that the geographical dependencies identified by the algorithm are consistent with the geographical relative locations of the zones over which the data were collected.
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Offroad vehicle movement has to contend with uneven and uncertain terrain which present challenges to path planning and motion control for both manned and unmanned ground vehicles. Knowledge of terrain properties can allow a vehicle to adapt its control and motion planning algorithms. Terrain properties, however, can change on time scales of days or even hours, necessitating their online estimation. The kinematics and, in particular the oscillations experienced by an offroad vehicle carry a signature of the terrain properties. These terrain properties can thus be estimated from proprioceptive sensing of the vehicle dynamics with an appropriate model and estimation algorithm. In this paper, we show that knowledge of the vertical dynamics of a vehicle due to its suspension can enable faster and more accurate estimation of terrain parameters. The paper considers a five degree of freedom model that combines the well known half-car and bicycle models. We show through simulation that the sinkage exponent, a parameter that can significantly influence the wheel forces from the terrain and thus greatly impact the vehicle trajectory, can be estimated from measurements of the vehicle's linear acceleration and rotational velocity, which can be readily obtained from an onboard IMU. We show that modelling the vertical vehicle dynamics can lead to significant improvement in both the estimation of terrain parameters and the prediction of the vehicle trajectory.
Randomized sampling techniques have become increasingly useful in seismic data acquisition and processing, allowing practitioners to achieve dense wavefield reconstruction from a substantially reduced number of field samples. However, typical designs studied in the low-rank matrix recovery and compressive sensing literature are difficult to achieve by standard industry hardware. For practical purposes, a compromise between stochastic and realizable samples is needed. In this paper, we propose a deterministic and computationally cheap tool to alleviate randomized acquisition design, prior to survey deployment and large-scale optimization. We consider universal and deterministic matrix completion results in the context of seismology, where a bipartite graph representation of the source-receiver layout allows for the respective spectral gap to act as a quality metric for wavefield reconstruction. We provide realistic survey design scenarios to demonstrate the utility of the spectral gap for successful seismic data acquisition via low-rank and sparse signal recovery.
Feature selection of high-dimensional labeled data with limited observations is critical for making powerful predictive modeling accessible, scalable, and interpretable for domain experts. Spectroscopy data, which records the interaction between matter and electromagnetic radiation, particularly holds a lot of information in a single sample. Since acquiring such high-dimensional data is a complex task, it is crucial to exploit the best analytical tools to extract necessary information. In this paper, we investigate the most commonly used feature selection techniques and introduce applying recent explainable AI techniques to interpret the prediction outcomes of high-dimensional and limited spectral data. Interpretation of the prediction outcome is beneficial for the domain experts as it ensures the transparency and faithfulness of the ML models to the domain knowledge. Due to the instrument resolution limitations, pinpointing important regions of the spectroscopy data creates a pathway to optimize the data collection process through the miniaturization of the spectrometer device. Reducing the device size and power and therefore cost is a requirement for the real-world deployment of such a sensor-to-prediction system as a whole. We specifically design three different scenarios to ensure that the evaluation of ML models is robust for the real-time practice of the developed methodologies and to uncover the hidden effect of noise sources on the final outcome.
The control of pneumatically driven soft robots typically requires electronics. Microcontrollers are connected to power electronics that switch valves and pumps on and off. As a recent alternative, fluidic control methods have been introduced, in which soft digital logic gates permit multiple actuation states to be achieved in soft systems. Such systems have demonstrated autonomous behaviors without the use of electronics. However, fluidic controllers have required complex fabrication processes. To democratize the exploration of fluidic controllers, we developed tube-balloon logic circuitry, which consists of logic gates made from straws and balloons. Each tube-balloon logic device takes a novice five minutes to fabricate and costs $0.45. Tube-balloon logic devices can also operate at pressures of up to 200 kPa and oscillate at frequencies of up to 15 Hz. We configure the tube-balloon logic device as NOT-, NAND-, and NOR-gates and assemble them into a three-ring oscillator to demonstrate a vibrating sieve that separates sugar from rice. Because tube-balloon logic devices are low-cost, easy to fabricate, and their operating principle is simple, they are well suited for exploring fundamental concepts of fluidic control schemes while encouraging design inquiry for pneumatically driven soft robots
In the present work we tackle the problem of finding the optimal price tariff to be set by a risk-averse electric retailer participating in the pool and whose customers are price-sensitive. We assume that the retailer has access to a sufficiently large smart-meter dataset from which it can statistically characterize the relationship between the tariff price and the demand load of its clients. Three different models are analyzed to predict the aggregated load as a function of the electricity prices and other parameters, as humidity or temperature. More specifically, we train linear regression (predictive) models to forecast the resulting demand load as a function of the retail price. Then we will insert this model in a quadratic optimization problem which evaluates the optimal price to be offered. This optimization problem accounts for different sources of uncertainty including consumer's response, pool prices and renewable source availability, and relies on a stochastic and risk-averse formulation. In particular, one important contribution of this work is to base the scenario generation and reduction procedure on the statistical properties of the resulting predictive model. This allows us to properly quantify (data-driven) not only the expected value but the level of uncertainty associated with the main problem parameters. Moreover, we consider both standard forward based contracts and the recently introduced power purchase agreement contracts as risk-hedging tools for the retailer. The results are promising as profits are found for the retailer with highly competitive prices and some possible improvements are shown if richer datasets could be available in the future. A realistic case study and multiple sensitivity analyses have been performed to characterize the risk-aversion behavior of the retailer considering price-sensitive consumers.
Spatial statistics is concerned with the analysis of data that have spatial locations associated with them, and those locations are used to model statistical dependence between the data. The spatial data are treated as a single realisation from a probability model that encodes the dependence through both fixed effects and random effects, where randomness is manifest in the underlying spatial process and in the noisy, incomplete, measurement process. The focus of this review article is on the use of basis functions to provide an extremely flexible and computationally efficient way to model spatial processes that are possibly highly non-stationary. Several examples of basis-function models are provided to illustrate how they are used in Gaussian, non-Gaussian, multivariate, and spatio-temporal settings, with applications in geophysics. Our aim is to emphasise the versatility of these spatial statistical models and to demonstrate that they are now centre-stage in a number of application domains. The review concludes with a discussion and illustration of software currently available to fit spatial-basis-function models and implement spatial-statistical prediction.
The estimation of time-varying quantities is a fundamental component of decision making in fields such as healthcare and finance. However, the practical utility of such estimates is limited by how accurately they quantify predictive uncertainty. In this work, we address the problem of estimating the joint predictive distribution of high-dimensional multivariate time series. We propose a versatile method, based on the transformer architecture, that estimates joint distributions using an attention-based decoder that provably learns to mimic the properties of non-parametric copulas. The resulting model has several desirable properties: it can scale to hundreds of time series, supports both forecasting and interpolation, can handle unaligned and non-uniformly sampled data, and can seamlessly adapt to missing data during training. We demonstrate these properties empirically and show that our model produces state-of-the-art predictions on several real-world datasets.
Time series forecasting is widely used in business intelligence, e.g., forecast stock market price, sales, and help the analysis of data trend. Most time series of interest are macroscopic time series that are aggregated from microscopic data. However, instead of directly modeling the macroscopic time series, rare literature studied the forecasting of macroscopic time series by leveraging data on the microscopic level. In this paper, we assume that the microscopic time series follow some unknown mixture probabilistic distributions. We theoretically show that as we identify the ground truth latent mixture components, the estimation of time series from each component could be improved because of lower variance, thus benefitting the estimation of macroscopic time series as well. Inspired by the power of Seq2seq and its variants on the modeling of time series data, we propose Mixture of Seq2seq (MixSeq), an end2end mixture model to cluster microscopic time series, where all the components come from a family of Seq2seq models parameterized by different parameters. Extensive experiments on both synthetic and real-world data show the superiority of our approach.
Dynamic topic models (DTMs) model the evolution of prevalent themes in literature, online media, and other forms of text over time. DTMs assume that word co-occurrence statistics change continuously and therefore impose continuous stochastic process priors on their model parameters. These dynamical priors make inference much harder than in regular topic models, and also limit scalability. In this paper, we present several new results around DTMs. First, we extend the class of tractable priors from Wiener processes to the generic class of Gaussian processes (GPs). This allows us to explore topics that develop smoothly over time, that have a long-term memory or are temporally concentrated (for event detection). Second, we show how to perform scalable approximate inference in these models based on ideas around stochastic variational inference and sparse Gaussian processes. This way we can train a rich family of DTMs to massive data. Our experiments on several large-scale datasets show that our generalized model allows us to find interesting patterns that were not accessible by previous approaches.
High spectral dimensionality and the shortage of annotations make hyperspectral image (HSI) classification a challenging problem. Recent studies suggest that convolutional neural networks can learn discriminative spatial features, which play a paramount role in HSI interpretation. However, most of these methods ignore the distinctive spectral-spatial characteristic of hyperspectral data. In addition, a large amount of unlabeled data remains an unexploited gold mine for efficient data use. Therefore, we proposed an integration of generative adversarial networks (GANs) and probabilistic graphical models for HSI classification. Specifically, we used a spectral-spatial generator and a discriminator to identify land cover categories of hyperspectral cubes. Moreover, to take advantage of a large amount of unlabeled data, we adopted a conditional random field to refine the preliminary classification results generated by GANs. Experimental results obtained using two commonly studied datasets demonstrate that the proposed framework achieved encouraging classification accuracy using a small number of data for training.
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