Estimating new HIV infections is significant yet challenging due to the difficulty in distinguishing between recent and long-term infections. We demonstrate that HIV recency status (recent v.s. long-term) could be determined from the combination of self-report testing history and biomarkers, which are increasingly available in bio-behavioral surveys. HIV recency status is partially observed, given the self-report testing history. For example, people who tested positive for HIV over one year ago should have a long-term infection. Based on the nationally representative samples collected by the Population-based HIV Impact Assessment (PHIA) Project, we propose a likelihood-based probabilistic model for HIV recency classification. The model incorporates both labeled and unlabeled data and integrates the mechanism of how HIV recency status depends on biomarkers and the mechanism of how HIV recency status, together with the self-report time of the most recent HIV test, impacts the test results, via a set of logistic regression models. We compare our method to logistic regression and the binary classification tree (current practice) on Malawi, Zimbabwe, and Zambia PHIA data, as well as on simulated data. Our model obtains more efficient and less biased parameter estimates and is relatively robust to potential reporting error and model misspecification.
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Scientific imaging problems are often severely ill-posed, and hence have significant intrinsic uncertainty. Accurately quantifying the uncertainty in the solutions to such problems is therefore critical for the rigorous interpretation of experimental results as well as for reliably using the reconstructed images as scientific evidence. Unfortunately, existing imaging methods are unable to quantify the uncertainty in the reconstructed images in a manner that is robust to experiment replications. This paper presents a new uncertainty quantification methodology based on an equivariant formulation of the parametric bootstrap algorithm that leverages symmetries and invariance properties commonly encountered in imaging problems. Additionally, the proposed methodology is general and can be easily applied with any image reconstruction technique, including unsupervised training strategies that can be trained from observed data alone, thus enabling uncertainty quantification in situations where there is no ground truth data available. We demonstrate the proposed approach with a series of numerical experiments and through comparisons with alternative uncertainty quantification strategies from the state-of-the-art, such as Bayesian strategies involving score-based diffusion models and Langevin samplers. In all our experiments, the proposed method delivers remarkably accurate high-dimensional confidence regions and outperforms the competing approaches in terms of estimation accuracy, uncertainty quantification accuracy, and computing time.
Despite the fact that Transformers perform well in NLP tasks, recent studies suggest that self-attention is theoretically limited in learning even some regular and context-free languages. These findings motivated us to think about their implications in modeling natural language, which is hypothesized to be mildly context-sensitive. We test the Transformer's ability to learn mildly context-sensitive languages of varying complexities, and find that they generalize well to unseen in-distribution data, but their ability to extrapolate to longer strings is worse than that of LSTMs. Our analyses show that the learned self-attention patterns and representations modeled dependency relations and demonstrated counting behavior, which may have helped the models solve the languages.
Semi-inductive link prediction (LP) in knowledge graphs (KG) is the task of predicting facts for new, previously unseen entities based on context information. Although new entities can be integrated by retraining the model from scratch in principle, such an approach is infeasible for large-scale KGs, where retraining is expensive and new entities may arise frequently. In this paper, we propose and describe a large-scale benchmark to evaluate semi-inductive LP models. The benchmark is based on and extends Wikidata5M: It provides transductive, k-shot, and 0-shot LP tasks, each varying the available information from (i) only KG structure, to (ii) including textual mentions, and (iii) detailed descriptions of the entities. We report on a small study of recent approaches and found that semi-inductive LP performance is far from transductive performance on long-tail entities throughout all experiments. The benchmark provides a test bed for further research into integrating context and textual information in semi-inductive LP models.
Zero-shot Dialogue State Tracking (DST) addresses the challenge of acquiring and annotating task-oriented dialogues, which can be time consuming and costly. However, DST extends beyond simple slot-filling and requires effective updating strategies for tracking dialogue state as conversations progress. In this paper, we propose ParsingDST, a new In-Context Learning (ICL) method, to introduce additional intricate updating strategies in zero-shot DST. Our approach reformulates the DST task by leveraging powerful Large Language Models (LLMs) and translating the original dialogue text to JSON through semantic parsing as an intermediate state. We also design a novel framework that includes more modules to ensure the effectiveness of updating strategies in the text-to-JSON process. Experimental results demonstrate that our approach outperforms existing zero-shot DST methods on MultiWOZ, exhibiting significant improvements in Joint Goal Accuracy (JGA) and slot accuracy compared to existing ICL methods.
We propose a novel unsupervised learning approach for non-rigid 3D shape matching. Our approach improves upon recent state-of-the art deep functional map methods and can be applied to a broad range of different challenging scenarios. Previous deep functional map methods mainly focus on feature extraction and aim exclusively at obtaining more expressive features for functional map computation. However, the importance of the functional map computation itself is often neglected and the relationship between the functional map and point-wise map is underexplored. In this paper, we systematically investigate the coupling relationship between the functional map from the functional map solver and the point-wise map based on feature similarity. To this end, we propose a self-adaptive functional map solver to adjust the functional map regularisation for different shape matching scenarios, together with a vertex-wise contrastive loss to obtain more discriminative features. Using different challenging datasets (including non-isometry, topological noise and partiality), we demonstrate that our method substantially outperforms previous state-of-the-art methods.
Telehealth is a valuable tool for primary health care (PHC), where depression is a common condition. PHC is the first point of contact for most people with depression, but about 25% of diagnoses made by PHC physicians are inaccurate. Many other barriers also hinder depression detection and treatment in PHC. Artificial intelligence (AI) may help reduce depression misdiagnosis in PHC and improve overall diagnosis and treatment outcomes. Telehealth consultations often have video issues, such as poor connectivity or dropped calls. Audio-only telehealth is often more practical for lower-income patients who may lack stable internet connections. Thus, our study focused on using audio data to predict depression risk. The objectives were to: 1) Collect audio data from 24 people (12 with depression and 12 without mental health or major health condition diagnoses); 2) Build a machine learning model to predict depression risk. TPOT, an autoML tool, was used to select the best machine learning algorithm, which was the K-nearest neighbors classifier. The selected model had high performance in classifying depression risk (Precision: 0.98, Recall: 0.93, F1-Score: 0.96). These findings may lead to a range of tools to help screen for and treat depression. By developing tools to detect depression risk, patients can be routed to AI-driven chatbots for initial screenings. Partnerships with a range of stakeholders are crucial to implementing these solutions. Moreover, ethical considerations, especially around data privacy and potential biases in AI models, need to be at the forefront of any AI-driven intervention in mental health care.
Model selection in supervised learning provides costless guarantees as if the model that best balances bias and variance was known a priori. We study the feasibility of similar guarantees for cumulative regret minimization in the stochastic contextual bandit setting. Recent work [Marinov and Zimmert, 2021] identifies instances where no algorithm can guarantee costless regret bounds. Nevertheless, we identify benign conditions where costless model selection is feasible: gradually increasing class complexity, and diminishing marginal returns for best-in-class policy value with increasing class complexity. Our algorithm is based on a novel misspecification test, and our analysis demonstrates the benefits of using model selection for reward estimation. Unlike prior work on model selection in contextual bandits, our algorithm carefully adapts to the evolving bias-variance trade-off as more data is collected. In particular, our algorithm and analysis go beyond adapting to the complexity of the simplest realizable class and instead adapt to the complexity of the simplest class whose estimation variance dominates the bias. For short horizons, this provides improved regret guarantees that depend on the complexity of simpler classes.
Few-shot Knowledge Graph (KG) completion is a focus of current research, where each task aims at querying unseen facts of a relation given its few-shot reference entity pairs. Recent attempts solve this problem by learning static representations of entities and references, ignoring their dynamic properties, i.e., entities may exhibit diverse roles within task relations, and references may make different contributions to queries. This work proposes an adaptive attentional network for few-shot KG completion by learning adaptive entity and reference representations. Specifically, entities are modeled by an adaptive neighbor encoder to discern their task-oriented roles, while references are modeled by an adaptive query-aware aggregator to differentiate their contributions. Through the attention mechanism, both entities and references can capture their fine-grained semantic meanings, and thus render more expressive representations. This will be more predictive for knowledge acquisition in the few-shot scenario. Evaluation in link prediction on two public datasets shows that our approach achieves new state-of-the-art results with different few-shot sizes.
The problem of Multiple Object Tracking (MOT) consists in following the trajectory of different objects in a sequence, usually a video. In recent years, with the rise of Deep Learning, the algorithms that provide a solution to this problem have benefited from the representational power of deep models. This paper provides a comprehensive survey on works that employ Deep Learning models to solve the task of MOT on single-camera videos. Four main steps in MOT algorithms are identified, and an in-depth review of how Deep Learning was employed in each one of these stages is presented. A complete experimental comparison of the presented works on the three MOTChallenge datasets is also provided, identifying a number of similarities among the top-performing methods and presenting some possible future research directions.
Multi-relation Question Answering is a challenging task, due to the requirement of elaborated analysis on questions and reasoning over multiple fact triples in knowledge base. In this paper, we present a novel model called Interpretable Reasoning Network that employs an interpretable, hop-by-hop reasoning process for question answering. The model dynamically decides which part of an input question should be analyzed at each hop; predicts a relation that corresponds to the current parsed results; utilizes the predicted relation to update the question representation and the state of the reasoning process; and then drives the next-hop reasoning. Experiments show that our model yields state-of-the-art results on two datasets. More interestingly, the model can offer traceable and observable intermediate predictions for reasoning analysis and failure diagnosis, thereby allowing manual manipulation in predicting the final answer.
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